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March 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Update from NWS Gaylord...

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

NICE TO SEE THE SOO GET INTO THE FUN AS WELL. AFTER HOLDING OUT ON

US FOR HALF THE DAY...SOUTHEAST BACKED FLOW OFF THE ST MARYS RIVER

HAS BEEN OVERCOME VIA DEEP LAYER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A

RAPID 12 DEGREE JUMP (UP TO 82!) IN TEMPS HAS BEEN NOTED THE PAST

HOUR. THE SOO HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO SITES SETTING THEIR ALL-TIME

MARCH RECORDS. ALL THE WHILE...TRAVERSE CITY CONTINUES TO CLIMB

TOWARD 90...AND IF THAT SHOULD HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST

RECORDED 90 DEGREE READING BY ALMOST 5 WEEKS...WITH THE CURRENT

RECORD COMING FROM APRIL 29TH...1970. IN OTHER WORDS...IF THE

TEMP HITS 90...IT WILL NOT ONLY SMASH THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR

MARCH...BUT IT WILL TIE THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR APRIL AS WELL.

UNBELIEVABLE!

UPDATE ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

FORECAST ON TRACK WILL NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE UP THROUGH THIS POINT.

STARTING TO SEE A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING JUST ON THE WESTERN EDGE

OF THE TERRAIN AND WITHIN BETTER H8 MOISTURE AXIS. PER RUC

SOUNDINGS...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT (MUCAPE

VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG) TO TAP WITH JUST A SMALL CAP DOWN LOW FROM

THE PERSPECTIVE OF A 100-MB MIXED LAYER PARCEL. THUS...BELIEVE

CHANCES FOR A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR STORMS LOOK GOOD

AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY LIGHT...

ONLY AROUND 25 KNOTS...SO NOTHING OVERLY ORGANIZED EXPECTED. JUST

YOUR TYPICAL JULY PATTERN... :)

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I think the Upper MS Valley has some severe wx potential on Tuesday, looking at the past several runs of the GFS/Euro as that compact but rather vigorous short wave ejects eastward. Plenty of instability already showing up on the GFS (1500-2000 J/kg) and lifted indexes of -7...

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82 in Sault Ste Marie, Michigan! Unbelievable. I think the previous all time March record there was 75. Absolutely crushed. Looks like 87 is the max of any Michigan site so far. 3 degrees in 2 hours still doable.

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3 nights on the euro has southern mi getting down to 25-32.. sweet lets get the vegetation devestation tracking started. What a sick day out there, last day of heatwaves never let us down in mke and finally no lake breeze 20 mins after peak heating.

Lol - its march 21st and wading the river by the burlinton dam in short cutoff jeans shorts, wife beater, and crocs - refreshing but still chilly enough to make my outtie a innie. There should be ice bergs coming down the river. only thing ice in the river this yr was my ice cube testes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cUNNKzj_Nc

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I think the Upper MS Valley has some severe wx potential on Tuesday, looking at the past several runs of the GFS/Euro as that compact but rather vigorous short wave ejects eastward. Plenty of instability already showing up on the GFS (1500-2000 J/kg) and lifted indexes of -7...

Gil Sebenste of NIU Weather at Northern Illinois University in Dekalb mentions in his blog today that Tuesday's storms could be something to write home about if heat and moisture are in place.

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Good thing i enjoy tracking history be made because outside of that the weather has been boring and useless as a week of arctic air in January here. I guess the vegetation devestation tracking will be fun also.

Earliest ice out recorded on the eagle river chain of lakes was crushed this yr by 10 days.. the old record was set back in 2007.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

355 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY

RECORD-CRUNCHING 582DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD TODAY,

ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH NEW ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH

AT ALL CLIMATE SITES (AS OF 3PM...86F AT MBS, 85F AT FNT, 83F AT

DTW). FOR PERSPECTIVE, FLINT`S AVERAGE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE OF JULY IS

ONLY 82F. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT UNDER

LIGHT WINDS AND A GRADUALLY INCREASING CIRRUS DECK. PLEASE SEE THE

CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION.

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Gil Sebenste of NIU Weather at Northern Illinois University in Dekalb mentions in his blog today that Tuesday's storms could be something to write home about if heat and moisture are in place.

60s dews into northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

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MPX already sounding on it:

THE LATEST MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS

EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS AND FORCING DEVELOPS OVER THE

NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STRONG CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP

OVER WEST CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE THICKNESS RIDGE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL INDICATING SOME COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO

CENTRAL MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

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