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March 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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NWS Gaylord MI:

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

I`M RUNNING OUT OF ADJECTIVES TO DESCRIBE THIS WEATHER PATTERN...

SO WE`LL JUST SAY IT`S DOWNRIGHT BEAUTIFUL OUT THERE TODAY. VERY

FEW CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 12Z APX RAOB CONTINUING

TO STRONGLY HINT THAT TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE

HEAT WAVE AS CORE OF VERY WARM AIR ARRIVES OVERHEAD (H8 TEMPS

APPROACHING 16C). EXPECTED DEEP MIXING TOWARD 750MB OR EVEN ABOVE

WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND HELP PROPEL HIGHS WELL

INTO THE 70S AND 80S IN ALL AREAS...LIKELY EVEN ACROSS ALL OF

EASTERN UPPER AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVERCOMES THE

TYPICALLY BACKED FLOW OFF LAKE HURON AND THE ST MARY`S RIVER.

AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT EVEN THE SOO MAY FINALLY BREAK THEIR

ALL-TIME MARCH HIGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON (CURRENTLY SITTING AT 75

DEGREES FROM 1946). ALSO...NOT ENTIRE IMPOSSIBLE THAT TRAVERSE

CITY OR SOMEONE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN DOWNSLOPE REGIME MAKES

A RUN AT 90 DEGREES PER CURRENT DIURNAL TRENDS AND MET GUIDANCE.

EARLIER ADDED MENTION OF SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE

HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST LOWER STILL LOOKS OK...BUT IT IS A

RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. STILL...STRONG SURFACE HEATING...EVEN WITH

DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S...YIELDS MODEST

MLCAPE VALUES UP AROUND 500 J/KG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF

CAPPING...SO CAN`T ARGUE AGAINST THE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...WILL

BE WATCHING HUMIDITY LEVELS AS CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG

CRITERIA IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WHETHER IT DOES OR NOT...BURNING

IS A BAD IDEA TODAY...HENCE THE MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

STILL WATCHING THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS TO

LEAN INTO FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BEST

CHANCES WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY

DRAPES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.

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Apparently the high res models paint a few areas in the Saginaw valley with 90 degrees. Just insane!!

I grew up in Saginaw. My mom texted me that the local forecasts are calling for a high of 88. I can't even wrap my head around that for March.

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