BowMeHunter Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 70 @ midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 00z GFS suggests we have another shot or two at 80 early next week with 15C 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 00z GFS suggests we have another shot or two at 80 early next week with 15C 850mb temps. Yeah, we get a break for 2 days then upper 70s and 80s come back here. You can already see the GFS cold bias on the 2m temps days 6-10...those would be more wide spread 80s and 90s in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 My thoughts going forward into Late March/Early April I think that we will continue to stay above normal through early April which will be a continuation of what we have seen all winter, The +PNA/+NAO/+AO that we have seen for the majority of winter will remain except for maybe a couple of days this weekend where the AO/NAO go slightly negative. If anything the PNA and AO get even more positive than currently. I know the MJO is supposed to move into Phase 7 in a few days but all the models except the Euro double back into Phase 6 by the 1st of the month, and using this image you will see why phase 7 is still favorable until the end of March That being said I don't think the MJO will have as much of an influence compared to the other teleconnections as it hasn't all winter. We have been in and out of cold phases all winter and it hasn't meant a thing because other things have asserted more dominance. Even looking at both the Euro/GFS/GGEM from today you'll see that any 'cool' shots move through and right on by in a day or so, or in the case of the Euro/GGEM are non existent. I know that the Euro weeklies for week 3 and 4 show cooler than normal temps but they have been a coin flip at best all winter when it gets to that range and furthermore they are slightly below normal not amazingly below normal. If this gets closer and still remains I might buy into it a bit, but unless something drastically changes with the PNA/AO/NAO, we won't be getting below normal for any significant period for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 70 @ midnight You're warmer than Brownsville, Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 My thoughts going forward into Late March/Early April I think that we will continue to stay above normal through early April which will be a continuation of what we have seen all winter, The +PNA/+NAO/+AO that we have seen for the majority of winter will remain except for maybe a couple of days this weekend where the AO/NAO go slightly negative. If anything the PNA and AO get even more positive than currently. I know the MJO is supposed to move into Phase 7 in a few days but all the models except the Euro double back into Phase 6 by the 1st of the month, and using this image you will see why phase 7 is still favorable until the end of March That being said I don't think the MJO will have as much of an influence compared to the other teleconnections as it hasn't all winter. We have been in and out of cold phases all winter and it hasn't meant a thing because other things have asserted more dominance. Even looking at both the Euro/GFS/GGEM from today you'll see that any 'cool' shots move through and right on by in a day or so, or in the case of the Euro/GGEM are non existent. I know that the Euro weeklies for week 3 and 4 show cooler than normal temps but they have been a coin flip at best all winter when it gets to that range and furthermore they are slightly below normal not amazingly below normal. If this gets closer and still remains I might buy into it a bit, but unless something drastically changes with the PNA/AO/NAO, we won't be getting below normal for any significant period for a while. Nice post. I think there is light at the end of the tunnel as far as being done with these extreme departures, but the question is whether it actually gets back to normal or below average for any sustained period of time. Not really seeing it yet...it may be more of a ho-hum above average regime for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Nice post. I think there is light at the end of the tunnel as far as being done with these extreme departures, but the question is whether it actually gets back to normal or below average for any sustained period of time. Not really seeing it yet...it may be more of a ho-hum above average regime for a while. Yeah I mean I don't see a prolific heat wave just yet, if it happens that's good if not that's also good. Also you have to remember with all of this record heat we have had there has been a positive feedback with respect to the snow depth, Now most of the Canadian Prairies are without snow and everything to the NE of us has been rapidly melting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Lots of interesting tidbits within... UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 12:05 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 21 MARCH 2012. ------------------------------------------------------------- ==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION== YESTERDAY WAS THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING. BUT IT FELT LIKE THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER. WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF AN HISTORIC WARM SPELL ACROSS ONTARIO WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES TUMBLING BY THE DOZEN EVERY DAY. ALMOST 160 DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN REWRITTEN OVER THE PAST WEEK ACROSS THE PROVINCE. SOME RECORDS HAVE BEEN SHATTERED BY AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES. NORMALLY WE ARE STILL FEELING THE CHILL OF WINTER'S FINAL BREATH. BUT INSTEAD, WORDS SUCH AS HUMIDEX, DAFFODILS AND PATIO WEATHER ARE ON EVERYBODY'S LIPS. EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN MELTING AT INCONCEIVABLE RATES. FOR INSTANCE, GERALDTON REPORTED 31 CENTIMETRES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ON MARCH 18TH. TWO DAYS LATER IT HAD VIRTUALLY ALL MELTED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MARCH WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR SOME PLACES. IN TORONTO (PEARSON AIRPORT), THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARM MARCH WAS 1946 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 5.2 DEGREES (THE AVERAGE OF ALL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES), WHERE NORMALLY THE AVERAGE IS -0.4 DEGREES FOR PEARSON. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF MARCH, IT APPEARS THIS RECORD MAY BE HANDILY BROKEN. IN FACT, MARCH 2012 MAY GO DOWN AS THE MONTH WITH THE WARMEST DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF ANY MONTH FOR TORONTO, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WHERE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1840! THE HOTTEST MARCH DAY EVER RECORDED AT PEARSON WAS 25.6 SET BACK IN 1946 ON MARCH 28TH. THIS MAY VERY WELL BE BROKEN ON THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK. THIS WARM SPELL IS ALSO REMARKABLE FOR ITS DURATION. IT IS MORE REMINISCENT OF A PERSISTENT SUMMER HEATWAVE. THE WARM SPELL IS PROJECTED TO LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR (BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL) ON FRIDAY. BELOW ARE RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET ON TUESDAY 20-MAR-2012. PLEASE REFER TO THE TABLE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. ------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION NEW TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD WINDSOR 27.0 19.4 (1976) LONDON 25.1 16.7 (1976) KITCHENER-WATERLOO 25.3 20.0 (1918) HAMILTON 24.2 17.8 (1976) MOUNT FOREST 24.1 18.9 (1918) WIARTON 25.1 15.9 (1995) TORONTO DOWNTOWN 20.9 19.4 (1918) TORONTO PEARSON 21.9 18.3 (1976) BUTTONVILLE 23.1 13.2 (1995) BARRIE 23.4 17.2 (1921) ORILLIA 24.0 19.4 (1903) BORDEN 26.2 13.3 (1968) TRENTON 23.3 14.4 (1946) KINGSTON 21.2 5.9 (2010) PETERBOROUGH 23.7 5.3 (2005,2010) MUSKOKA 24.8 15.0 (1946) PARRY SOUND 24.8 4.9 (2005) ALGONQUIN EAST GATE 24.5 15.0 (1918) OTTAWA 25.8 14.6 (1995) PETAWAWA 24.0 13.9 (1979) THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND MAY NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT. END/OSPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 If the GFS is right there *might* be a shot at 90 somewhere next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 If the GFS is right there *might* be a shot at 90 somewhere next week. Possible, the GFS has been showing a rebuild after the upper low passes by that could as hot as it has been with this heat wave. Btw it was 60 when I got home outside, but inside my house the thermostat read a crisp 80... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 If the GFS is right there *might* be a shot at 90 somewhere next week. They've been saying on talk radio that we're setting up for a huge drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 GFS 850 temp anomalies day 6-15. Yeah, that's good to avoid the hard freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I sure hope we at least have some Spring days that are crisp, like lows in the low 40s and highs around 60. That's my favorite weather and we totally seemed to skip that phase so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 ORD with the lowest temp in the near metro area as of 1AM, coming in with 65. Going to end up cooler than it was to start the warming yesterday, unless something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 ORD with the lowest temp in the near metro area as of 1AM, coming in with 65. Going to end up cooler than it was to start the warming yesterday, unless something changes. Huge difference between there and MDW. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 Huge difference between there and MDW. What gives? ORD ASOS being ORD ASOS. It has had a few kooky jumps/falls during this warm spell...but at least it has done well when it has counted, unlike in the July '11 heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Huge difference between there and MDW. What gives? A large part of the Chicago area is above 70, with temperatures in the mid 70s downtown on the lake shore. Definite UHI effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 A large part of the Chicago area is above 70, with temperatures in the mid 70s downtown on the lake shore. Definite UHI effect. I get the UHI effect, however you will almost never see a 7 degree difference between ORD and MDW at any time of day unless there is a lake breeze boundary in between or one location gets hit by a t-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 ORD ASOS being ORD ASOS. It has had a few kooky jumps/falls during this warm spell...but at least it has done well when it has counted, unlike in the July '11 heat wave. It's 65 in Elmhurst just to the south, and 65 around Wheaton. Little cool pocket in the northwestern suburbs, probably not an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I get the UHI effect, however you will almost never see a 7 degree difference between ORD and MDW at any time of day unless there is a lake breeze boundary in between or one location gets hit by a t-storm. Well, it appears the winds are calm in the cooler part of the city allowing for radiational cooling. The warmest locations have a steady wind that's mixing the cold air layer out, and also are deep in the city so urban effects disrupt the cold layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 It's 65 in Elmhurst just to the south, and 65 around Wheaton. Little cool pocket in the northwestern suburbs, probably not an error. It's 68 in DPA and 69 here. It's rare that it's warmer here and at DPA than ORD in these situations. Edit: Even DKB is sitting at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Well, it appears the winds are calm in the cooler part of the city allowing for radiational cooling. The warmest locations have a steady wind that's mixing the cold air layer out, and also are deep in the city so urban effects disrupt the cold layer. ORD was SE at 6 and MDW SE at 7 on the last ob. Not much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 STL went from 71F at midnight to 73F now for a new high. Crazy, we might reach the mid 70s by morning. If we don't drop below 71F by tomorrow night at night midnight. We may see a 82/71/76F day which is nuts for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I sure hope we at least have some Spring days that are crisp, like lows in the low 40s and highs around 60. That's my favorite weather and we totally seemed to skip that phase so far. lots of time to get rack up days like that. Can't see anyway there is not at least 15 days meeting or below your criteria. lol - madisons average low doesn't get out of your "crispy" low 40's until almost a week in to may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 If STL finishes at 60.0F for March. Adding up Jan-March then adding those to the average monthly climo's for the rest of the year, stl would finish at: STL would finish 59.1F which would be 3rd warmest year on record here. The record is 60.1F I would be very very very surprised if we finish April-December right at normal. If we finish 1F per month below normal, then the year would be at: 58.2F and 13th warmest all time. If we finish 1F per month above normal, then the year would be at 59.9F and 2nd warmest all time. If we finish 2.5F per month above normal, then the year would be at 61.3F and 1st warmest by 1.2F. I don't know how it will play out. But if the trend continues, then this could be a huge anomaly not to be broken for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Would think its late april or may with how loud the robins are this early am. Down to 56 off the gross 70 @ 12 am. Gonna go see if I can't catch dinner this morning down in wilmont - I suck and have no patience river fishing so I'm sure the only thing I'll be catching is some rays and maybe a bottle bass or two if I can make fishing to lunch time but I'm sure I'll give up on fishing even before I think its to early for a barley pop. Thankfully last day of the extreme sillyness temps for awhile but I sure had a good time following it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 already 71 downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I've absolutely loved it. It feels like Mother Nature is repaying us for about 5 straight Springs that have been just awful up here. We've seen cold, and some of the worst flooding in NW Ohio history sadly the last few years and we haven't really seen warm weather like this till mid May so to have it in early March is unreal. I'm just enjoying a pattern I expect to never see again April 2010 was the warmest on record and that spring was very hot too. So it hasn't really been all bad as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 We've went above the 1878 record through yesterday... Sitting at 48.2F (+16.2F) ..... 1878 finished at 47.1F GFS looks warm ..Euro keeps it mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Trent- April 2010 was #3 here...March 2010 was #7 ....spring 2010 was a lot like spring of 1977. BowMe- A bad day fishing is almost better then anything else... I hope to take my oldest kid fishing this year. I sold my boat after having these kids. I just wasn't able to ever get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.