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March 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Great evening in the upper 50s! Feels like a mid-May night!

...Great photo's Chicago Storm!

Thanks.

Things still look iffy temp wise tomorrow. Some guidance has us up into the low 80's once again, while others have more clouds/storms and temps only reaching the 70's. It will be interesting to watch trends as the disturbance lifts northward out of the Arklatex.

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Thanks.

Things still look iffy temp wise tomorrow. Some guidance has us up into the low 80's once again, while others have more clouds/storms and temps only reaching the 70's. It will be interesting to watch trends as the disturbance lifts northward out of the Arklatex.

Yeah it looks like 80 may be a bit harder to achieve the next few days with more mid-upper clouds to deal with. Obviously it will still be fantastic weather, but the extreme warmth may be tempered some.

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According to Tim, the warmest month relative to average for the LAF area was March 1946, which finished at +14.3 (avg temp was 53.6). This is using the longer record period of the WL COOP. December, January, February, and March have all posted double digit positive departures at some point so this is the time of year to do it.

Has he quit posting? Haven't seen him on here in awhile.

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71 at ORD and 69 at MDW, WTF month is this...

Just mind boggling stuff - its still 68 in Ashland and 64 in International Falls. Avg low here in MKE is 64 in the peak of summer.

Looks like Saukville is the coolest in the state now at 51 degrees. Ashland of all places with the warmest and one degree up of runner up la crosses's 67.

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This would be as if we were in mid July and everyone was still 90+ at this time of day.

Never thought of it like that! avg low in la crosse is 26 and its 67 now. KINL is at 64 and their avg low is 14. 50 off their avg low right now and its only supposed to drop to 62, lmaooo. even being one of the cooler spots in WI at 55 we're +27 on the avg low of 28 and like you said it would be in the 90's still at 2 am.

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typical Gino lol

309 AM CDT

IN THE WORDS OF A WISE HYDROLOGIST...FEBRUARY SHOWERS BRING MARCH

FLOWERS! THE REGION CONTINUES TO GREEN UP THANKS TO THE ONGOING

HISTORIC WARM SPELL WHICH GENERALLY LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST

SEVERAL MORE DAYS. FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE

CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TEMPS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS

THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE AN END TO OUR

RECORD BREAKING WARMTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO

MORE TYPICAL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SAYS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER

MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING...UNFORTUNATELY THERE REALLY ISNT

ANYTHING DISCERN ABLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE

HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND PROFILERS/EVENING RAOBS DIDNT OFFER ANY

CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF

CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF STL CERTAINLY WOULD LEND CREDENCE TO THE

MODELS AND HAVE OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY

OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE

NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT

ADDITIONAL ISOLD/WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP/CONVECTION TODAY ISNT HIGH...AM FAIRLY

CONFIDENT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE MUCH MORE PROMINENT TODAY VS THE

PAST SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND GREATER CLOUD

COVER HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE "COOLER"

MET GUIDANCE. A MODEST SOUTH BREEZE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS THE

PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE BEEN HELPING KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER

THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...SO WITH SUCH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM START WE

COULD STILL MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORDS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF

CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ISNT QUITE AS ROBUST AS IM WORRIED IT COULD BE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON DIGGING THE SHARP WESTERN TROUGH EVEN FURTHER SOUTH

INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WHILE CLOSING OFF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER

LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...LOOK FOR WHAT IS

ALREADY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE TO ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN AND

AMPLIFY A BIT FURTHER. REMARKABLY 500MB HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA ARE

PROGGED TO CLIMB TO OVER 580DM AS HEIGHTS NEAR 3 STANDARD

DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE...OR ROUGHLY 50-80DM HIGHER THAN WHAT WE

HAVE SEEN DURING OUR RECENT STRETCH OF 80F WEATHER.

A VERY SOLID ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO INCREASE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS

INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH TUES AND WED.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HIGHER CLOUDINESS BLOWING OFF

CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THAT THESE VALUES WOULD BE

ECLIPSING THE ALL TIME RECORDS FOR SO EARLY IN THE YEAR AM RELUCTANT

TO GO ANY WARMER THAN LOW 80S. MUCH STRONGER WINDS TUESDAY AND A

MORE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH

LESS LAKE COOLING...IF ANY AT ALL. UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL

ALSO HELP ENSURE WE BREAK SEVERAL MORE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

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Thanks.

Things still look iffy temp wise tomorrow. Some guidance has us up into the low 80's once again, while others have more clouds/storms and temps only reaching the 70's. It will be interesting to watch trends as the disturbance lifts northward out of the Arklatex.

Fairly obvious that we won't make it into the 80's...or even near 80 today, given the amount of cloud cover and showers/storms moving in.

The 70+ streak will continue though, as it was 71 at the 1AM OBS. Unless we see some breaks, that very well could end up being the high for the day.

Tue-Thur still had 80 potential though.

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8" my ass, I see 0" there

No surprise to see 0" there. That area melts fast every spring and greens up way early because its a septic field. Last weekend there was about 3 feet of snow on the ground up there.

And down to about 1' on his property in the woods this Sunday am he said.. Also said he wouldn't be surprised to see the snow pack down to 3 or 4" by sunset so reporting 8" this morning seems a little questionable but I don't know why he would strecth the depth - but than again I bet there isn't a snow weenie alive who hasn't stretched a snow situation at least once.

Sunday am.

mar18-5.jpg

Logging road and trail on Sunday just to his north by Lac La Belle

mar18-14.jpg

snowmobile trail

mar18-15.jpg

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