Tropical Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 So we're really getting an MCS rolling over the top of the ridge north of Lake Huron...in mid March? Somebody want to change this thread to July 2012 general obs/dicussion? Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Darn...had 63F until the last ob...down to a chilly 62F on March 17th... NWS shows 81F today and tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 getting a little out of control now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Interesting... Ring of Fire in March. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 At this pace will be in the 100's by May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Man now the models are saying what cold. I hope the rain this week comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 At this pace will be in the 100's by May Crazzy stuff bro. Good news is you might get an early start on the projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Crazzy stuff bro. Good news is you might get an early start on the projects. Understatement I have no words on whats going on with this warmth. I just know this. Its going to flip at some point. Everything tends to even out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Man now the models are saying what cold. EURO says what you smoking? In fact, it even shows a SNOWSTORM for the Eastern Lakes/Ontario next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 So we're really getting an MCS rolling over the top of the ridge north of Lake Huron...in mid March? Somebody want to change this thread to July 2012 general obs/dicussion? That is downright incredible. I'd have to imagine it is extremely rare to get a thunderstorm up there this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 EURO says what you smoking? In fact, it even shows a SNOWSTORM for the Eastern Lakes/Ontario next weekeend One model that also bucks all the teleconnections, current/projected MJO phase and seasonal trends. I think the Euro is probably out to lunch. Case in point it already backed off on the magnitude/depth of the cold intrusion on last nights run compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Btw I noticed this on the way home from work this morning. The grass is greening up alongside the freeways and in my neighborhood, and with me being on the Eastside, we have been cooler than say those in the Western Suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Point forecast for Chicago... wtf? Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Maybe BeastFromTheEast was right when he said someone might get close/pass 90 with this warm blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 EURO says what you smoking? In fact, it even shows a SNOWSTORM for the Eastern Lakes/Ontario next weekeend Blah.. It's going to be a hoot watching the models fumble with either more torching or more weak transitory cool/chilly shots. Tis the season for real model fails as we head into April. Also he's right if he is looking at the euro through 168. It's a complete abortion for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 One model that also bucks all the teleconnections, current/projected MJO phase and seasonal trends. I think the Euro is probably out to lunch. Case in point it already backed off on the magnitude/depth of the cold intrusion on last nights run compared to the 12z. It's still pretty cold across the Great Lakes, SE Canada and New England. The key there was that not all the models at this time (which was implied) completely backed off on the cold (850mb temps of -5*C to -10*C is still pretty cold for late March/early April). That said, both the EURO and GFS are likely out to lunch. I also believe the GFS is too slow to break down the ridging (the models are usually too slow to break them down) and too quick to return it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 omg, drunk people all over already...80+ combined with St Patricks retards = anarchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 omg, drunk people all over already...80+ combined with St Patricks retards = anarchy This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Don't they dye the Chicago River or is that just the pollution ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 The GGEM's solution is really insane. It essentially completely removes the cutoff low from the upper level flow, and it slowly drifts SE along the Gulf Coast states while we're still "torching" with heights in the 570-576dm range.' I'm wondering if latent heat will start to become a factor too with time, especially the longer this "heatwave" lasts. The only thing going against it would really be the moisture we have in the air. That's why we're going to have to also keep an eye on the snowpack up north and those lake temperatures as well (positive feedback). And yeah, many of the bigger trees are completely budded now, and a few of them are starting to bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Don't they dye the Chicago River or is that just the pollution ? River is getting much better, Rahm wants it to be swimmable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 I think it's pretty clear that we're witnessing history here. Toronto will likley blow away a monthly record going back to 1843. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 The trees right now are actually aiding the warmth. The lack of leaf cover allows the sunshine to penetrate to the floor much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 River is getting much better, Rahm wants it to be swimmable They just need to constantly work the bottom up, allows the toxins to flow out and dissipate in the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 They just need to constantly work the bottom up, allows the toxins to flow out and dissipate in the lake. the river hasn't flowed into the lake in like forever. But seriously, i believe they want to start treating the waste run off on the north branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 EURO says what you smoking? In fact, it even shows a SNOWSTORM for the Eastern Lakes/Ontario next weekend The GFS for a few runs had a few day cool shot, that was it, it mostly has been all warm. Its certainly a battle with the LR GFS and euro/weeklies. I never like to believe a LR forecast personally, but if I had to pick its always go for the Euro. The track record for the GFS's longrange is an absolute joke compared to the euro weeklies. BTW, not that it should be a surprise with the sun and warmth, but was by the mall yesterday and the once mountainous snow piles are now completely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Plenty of rain here in the last two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 ORD is up to 73 as of the 11AM OBS, which makes it the 5th consecutive 70+ day. This current streak is now tied with March 12-16th, 1995 for the most consecutive 70+ days on record in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Plenty of rain here in the last two hours. Holy cow, Kevlon! I just noticed the storm west of here, when it started getting dark here! Now I hear distant thunder. There wasn't any rain forecast today...! Sitting at 68° now. The incoming lake breeze may set off some more storms in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 The GFS for a few runs had a few day cool shot, that was it, it mostly has been all warm. Its certainly a battle with the LR GFS and euro/weeklies. I never like to believe a LR forecast personally, but if I had to pick its always go for the Euro. The track record for the GFS's longrange is an absolute joke compared to the euro weeklies. BTW, not that it should be a surprise with the sun and warmth, but was by the mall yesterday and the once mountainous snow piles are now completely gone. Completely disagree about the GFS and euro weeklies. The euro weeklies and GFS are about the same in accuracy through 300+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 NWS Marquette: Lack of Subzero Days this Winter Sets Record With the warm Winter of 2011-2012 winding down, here a few interesting statistics on subzero days recorded at the Marquette National Weather Service office located in Negaunee Township. For these statistics, the time period considered as "winter" is November through April since those are the months when subzero days can occur. The average number of subzero days is 30. Rank November through April Number of subzero days 2011-12: 9 1997-98: 10 2001-02, 1982-83: 12 2009-10, 2005-06, 1986-87: 15 1994-95: 16 If no additional subzero days occur over the next few weeks, this "winter" will go into the record books as having the least number of subzero days. With the unseasonably warm pattern that has setup and that may persist through the end of March, it's doubtful that another subzero day will occur. The latest into Spring that a subzero day has occurred is April 10th. The record low for that day is -3F, which occurred in 2007. In addition to the lack of subzero days, the lowest temperature observed during the "winter" of 2011-2012 was only -12F. This ties the "winters" of 2001-2002 and 1994-1995 as having the warmest lowest temperature observed during "winter". And finally, here's a note on the overall warmth that we have experienced since November 1, 2011. The average temperature through March 14th was 25.2F. This is the second warmest November 1st through March 14th period on record. The warmest was November 1, 2001 to March 14th, 2002 which had an average temperature of 25.8F. Weather records for the National Weather Service office located in Negaunee Township date back to 1961. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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