Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 988
  • Created
  • Last Reply

So we're really getting an MCS rolling over the top of the ridge north of Lake Huron...in mid March? Somebody want to change this thread to July 2012 general obs/dicussion?

That is downright incredible. I'd have to imagine it is extremely rare to get a thunderstorm up there this time of the year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO says what you smoking?

In fact, it even shows a SNOWSTORM for the Eastern Lakes/Ontario next weekeend

One model that also bucks all the teleconnections, current/projected MJO phase and seasonal trends. I think the Euro is probably out to lunch. Case in point it already backed off on the magnitude/depth of the cold intrusion on last nights run compared to the 12z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Point forecast for Chicago... wtf?

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Maybe BeastFromTheEast was right when he said someone might get close/pass 90 with this warm blast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO says what you smoking?

In fact, it even shows a SNOWSTORM for the Eastern Lakes/Ontario next weekeend

Blah..

It's going to be a hoot watching the models fumble with either more torching or more weak transitory cool/chilly shots. Tis the season for real model fails as we head into April.

Also he's right if he is looking at the euro through 168. It's a complete abortion for cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One model that also bucks all the teleconnections, current/projected MJO phase and seasonal trends. I think the Euro is probably out to lunch. Case in point it already backed off on the magnitude/depth of the cold intrusion on last nights run compared to the 12z.

It's still pretty cold across the Great Lakes, SE Canada and New England.

The key there was that not all the models at this time (which was implied) completely backed off on the cold (850mb temps of -5*C to -10*C is still pretty cold for late March/early April).

That said, both the EURO and GFS are likely out to lunch. I also believe the GFS is too slow to break down the ridging (the models are usually too slow to break them down) and too quick to return it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GGEM's solution is really insane. It essentially completely removes the cutoff low from the upper level flow, and it slowly drifts SE along the Gulf Coast states while we're still "torching" with heights in the 570-576dm range.'

I'm wondering if latent heat will start to become a factor too with time, especially the longer this "heatwave" lasts. The only thing going against it would really be the moisture we have in the air. That's why we're going to have to also keep an eye on the snowpack up north and those lake temperatures as well (positive feedback).

And yeah, many of the bigger trees are completely budded now, and a few of them are starting to bloom.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO says what you smoking?

In fact, it even shows a SNOWSTORM for the Eastern Lakes/Ontario next weekend

The GFS for a few runs had a few day cool shot, that was it, it mostly has been all warm. Its certainly a battle with the LR GFS and euro/weeklies. I never like to believe a LR forecast personally, but if I had to pick its always go for the Euro. The track record for the GFS's longrange is an absolute joke compared to the euro weeklies.

BTW, not that it should be a surprise with the sun and warmth, but was by the mall yesterday and the once mountainous snow piles are now completely gone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Plenty of rain here in the last two hours. post-855-133199839203.jpgpost-855-13319984232.jpgpost-855-133199846255.jpg

Holy cow, Kevlon! I just noticed the storm west of here, when it started getting dark here! Now I hear distant thunder. There wasn't any rain forecast today...! Sitting at 68° now.

The incoming lake breeze may set off some more storms in the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS for a few runs had a few day cool shot, that was it, it mostly has been all warm. Its certainly a battle with the LR GFS and euro/weeklies. I never like to believe a LR forecast personally, but if I had to pick its always go for the Euro. The track record for the GFS's longrange is an absolute joke compared to the euro weeklies.

BTW, not that it should be a surprise with the sun and warmth, but was by the mall yesterday and the once mountainous snow piles are now completely gone.

Completely disagree about the GFS and euro weeklies. The euro weeklies and GFS are about the same in accuracy through 300+.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Marquette:

Lack of Subzero Days this Winter Sets Record

With the warm Winter of 2011-2012 winding down, here a few interesting statistics on subzero days recorded at the Marquette National Weather Service office located in Negaunee Township. For these statistics, the time period considered as "winter" is November through April since those are the months when subzero days can occur. The average number of subzero days is 30.

Rank

November through April

Number of subzero days

2011-12: 9

1997-98: 10

2001-02, 1982-83: 12

2009-10, 2005-06, 1986-87: 15

1994-95: 16

If no additional subzero days occur over the next few weeks, this "winter" will go into the record books as having the least number of subzero days. With the unseasonably warm pattern that has setup and that may persist through the end of March, it's doubtful that another subzero day will occur. The latest into Spring that a subzero day has occurred is April 10th. The record low for that day is -3F, which occurred in 2007.

In addition to the lack of subzero days, the lowest temperature observed during the "winter" of 2011-2012 was only

-12F. This ties the "winters" of 2001-2002 and 1994-1995 as having the warmest lowest temperature observed during "winter".

And finally, here's a note on the overall warmth that we have experienced since November 1, 2011. The average temperature through March 14th was 25.2F. This is the second warmest November 1st through March 14th period on record. The warmest was November 1, 2001 to March 14th, 2002 which had an average temperature of 25.8F.

Weather records for the National Weather Service office located in Negaunee Township date back to 1961.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...