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March 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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:yikes:

That would cause some issues.

Hit 58° today with almost half the day being in the soupy fog. Broke up us before 11am. Densest fog was east of US 41 in Lake County. Pretty nice day overall. Any day in March in the 50s is alright! Down to 53° now.

431536_3538579230093_1440765701_3250964_1889111970_n.jpg

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Clouds and rain were around until 2pm. The day was almost never started.

The temperature sky rocketed from 65F at 2 pm to 77F by 4pm.

This gave us a day of 77/58/66 or 22F+ above normal.

This puts STL at 55.8F for the month and 12.3F above normal.

The forecasts call for the next 3-4 days to be 26-28F above normal.

Then an upper low moves in and put us closer to normal at 10-15F above before the heat comes back.

the GOM is torching with widespread 2-3C anomalies and 3-4C widespread anomalies by the GOM coast.

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Just weird weird weather folks. I know this isn't a scientific post but it's just unreal to see us consistently hitting 80 in Toledo in early March! This usually blizzard season, and this is a constant summer pattern. The thing I notice most is nights though, it really just does not cool off at all when that sun goes down.

Just another reason I love weather so much, it can and will do anything at anytime of the year almost. The power of mother nature is something else

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Will be interesting to see what model ends up being right at the end of the month, the thing going for the GFS however is the seasonal trends which have been for a trough in the Gulf of Alaska which stays, and persistent Southwest flow across the Continental US, which has been the case all winter long. Furthermore the teleconnections albeit do get closer to 0 stay positive with respect to the AO/NAO/PNA also the MJO looks to stay in phases 6-7 which this time of year are typically warm phases of the MJO. So the Euro solution set has a lot going against it right now. Also we are starting to see the snow erode in Canada which will be a positive feedback to this early season warmth. Sure you can get cold without snow to the North but it is much easier when there is snow there.

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00zGFS1-5day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif?t=1331963780

00zGFS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA-8.gif?t=1331964215

00zGFS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA-9.gif?t=1331964201

The 00z GFS is sick. Pretty much destroys the snow cover in Canada all the way to central Canada and even further into the arctic from the south.

I know it is not set in stone but this would be a historic strech of warmth over North America.

Snow cover would be completely destroyed. Once the snow cover is gone over the South Western Hudson Bay area. The Azimuth next week is in the 40 range. Which means a southerly flow with no snow cover would yield 60s maybe low 70s reaching the SW Bay. Pretty Crazy very late March and early April.

The entire run has a 200-300M height anomaly over the Lakes. Incredible. I know I sound over zealous It's just something so rare.

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00zeuro850mbTSLPNA096.gif?t=1331965357

00zeuro850mbTSLPNA120.gif?t=1331965568

You can see the down sloping flow on the Euro. The cold air can't penetrate south against this pattern with no snow cover aid. The difference in abedo is massive. No help there.

http://www.weatherof...sis/352_100.gif

The Canadian in situ obs show some deep spots. But mostly 25-50CM snow depths. Those are going to keep getting hit with some heat and sun.

The 00z Euro has backed off considerably with the cold shot. And has the West boiling as a ridge builds East quickly.

Edit: It backdoors some cold into the lakes.

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Point forecast for Chicago... wtf?

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

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