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March 2012 General Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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We're just about at the point that we need a new thread, so I thought I would kick this new thread off with March temp stats for Chicago dating back to 1926.

The chart itself is self explanatory.

A few notes:

- March 1995 had the most consecutive 70+ days on record, with 5.

-March 1990, 1968 and 1945 are tied for having the most consecutive 60+ days, with 7. (Not sure what the record is)

-March 1945 holds the record for most 70+ days, with 9.

-Only 6 days have featured an 80+ reading since OBS were taken at U of Chicago (1926).

-The often mentioned March 1945 is the warmest March on record for Chicago, at 48.6

marchstats.jpg

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Holy smoking hotcakes... NWS La Crosse had a long write up this afternoon...caught this tasty little tidbit... They also think dewpoints near 60F probably not likely with the lack of vegetation...

.CLIMATE...THROUGH TUESDAY

326 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012

BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH

DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND RELATIVELY SPEAKING

HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY

REGION. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW

SITES SUCH AS CHARLES CITY IA...SPARTA AND BOSCOBEL WI ALL EXPECTED

TO HIT 80. THE READINGS ARE MORE SIMILAR TO LATE MAY THAN

MID-MARCH. THE LAST TIME WE SAW SUCH A STRETCH OF RECORD WARMTH IN

MARCH WAS BACK IN 2000. SEE OUR WEBSITE FOR A LISTING OF RECORD

HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER INTERESTING NOTE...THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH

IS 47.1 AT LA CROSSE SET IN 1878...AND 42.9 AT ROCHESTER SET IN

1910. THROUGH MARCH 12TH...LA CROSSE IS CURRENTLY AT 38.2 AND

ROCHESTER IS AT 35.4. WITH SO MANY WARM DAYS AHEAD...POTENTIAL

EXISTS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED THESE RECORDS.

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13 Mar 8:03 pm PDT 34 32 93 SW 6 3.00 -SN BR FEW007 BKN013 OVC021 29.85 29.401 0.03 OK 13 Mar 7:53 pm PDT 34 32 92 26 WSW 10 7.00 -SN FEW005 SCT015 BKN021 1011.7 29.85 29.401 0.06 0.06 OK 13 Mar 7:30 pm PDT 36 32 87 29 W 10 4.00 -SN BR SCT005 BKN010 OVC030 29.84 29.391

T

Meanwhile, while we're torching in the 60s/70s/80s, it's snowing in Seattle (note the elevation as well).

http://www.wrh.noaa....&sid=SEA&num=48

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According to Environment Canada Great Lakes SSTS have started to climb. Can anyone tell me what they think this will do to the Lakes SSTS? And is there a good site that has regular updates?

Is there a kind of max that can be reached this time of year?

Could the lakes be warmed say by the end of March to crazy warm and then a late season large cold break bring out some hardcore Lake Effect?

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According to Environment Canada Great Lakes SSTS have started to climb. Can anyone tell me what they think this will do to the Lakes SSTS? And is there a good site that has regular updates?

Is there a kind of max that can be reached this time of year?

Could the lakes be warmed say by the end of March to crazy warm and then a late season large cold break bring out some hardcore Lake Effect?

See March 2007. Several warm spells that month really warmed the lakes up, and then this happened on Easter. But I do think this March will have unprecedented surface temps (especially for Erie, which didn't freeze this year and is the most shallow). How that plays out with the right cold blast in April or late March is yet to be seen.

It was 80 degrees on April 3rd. The high on April 5th was 29. Then up to 42" of snow fell... anything can happen.

post-599-0-70461400-1331695102.png

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I've heard the corn crop is a culprit in helping raise dewpoints in the summer. (Which I don't care for!) It "sweats" moisture. Given that precipitation is normal or above normal.

Yeah there's no doubt that it contributes a lot of moisture to the BL. I think the fact that there's so much hybrid ("super bread") corn planted only adds to it. The corn belt gets about as humid as anywhere else in the conus in mid-summer when corn crops are at their peak. Any east/west boundary that allows pooling of moisture easily vaults dews to 80 or above given the right synoptic setup.

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See March 2007. Several warm spells that month really warmed the lakes up, and then this happened on Easter. But I do think this March will have unprecedented surface temps (especially for Erie, which didn't freeze this year and is the most shallow). How that plays out with the right cold blast in April or late March is yet to be seen.

It was 80 degrees on April 3rd. The high on April 5th was 29. Then up to 42" of snow fell... anything can happen.

post-599-0-70461400-1331695102.png

O yeah, anything can happen in April! Last April it hit 83 around the 10th, then snowed 3" on the 18th! I remember that lake effect outbreak, crazy!

The lakes will warm up, but it depends on how much sun vs. clouds there are. Cloud cover really slows the warming process.

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Were going to be on one heck of a streak..

Day 1 of 70....

Looks like we may go 8+ days of 70 degree weather. My +4 for March is going to get shattered with something along the lines of +12 or higher...

One thing we should see a change to more normal conditions at some point and when that happens severe weather will crank like a MOFO...

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See March 2007. Several warm spells that month really warmed the lakes up, and then this happened on Easter. But I do think this March will have unprecedented surface temps (especially for Erie, which didn't freeze this year and is the most shallow). How that plays out with the right cold blast in April or late March is yet to be seen.

It was 80 degrees on April 3rd. The high on April 5th was 29. Then up to 42" of snow fell... anything can happen.

post-599-0-70461400-1331695102.png

We had record temps around 80F at the end of March 2007 that led to instant greenup, then one of the longest April deepfreezes on record (I think temps AOB 32F for 100 consecutive hours). The early jump to vegetation and corresponding freeze led to many flowering trees bearing no flowers at all...just eventually popping leaves. From the simple beauty of a flowering tree in spring to the downright livelihood of a farmer, early greenup followed by hard freeze is not good...but the combination happens almost everytime theres a very early greenup.

Another interesting note...Detroit had BACK TO BACK White Easters! Snow depth of 1" on Easter Sunday, April 8, 2007 was followed by snow depth of 3" on Easter Sunday, March 23, 2008 (many large snowbanks though from a 7.3-inch Good Friday storm). Though there were several Easters with a T of snowdepth, going back to 1900, the only other Easters with 1"+ snowdepth at Detroit were 1920 (3"), 1926 (1"), 1940 (1"), 2007 (1") and 2008 (3")

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See March 2007. Several warm spells that month really warmed the lakes up, and then this happened on Easter. But I do think this March will have unprecedented surface temps (especially for Erie, which didn't freeze this year and is the most shallow). How that plays out with the right cold blast in April or late March is yet to be seen.

It was 80 degrees on April 3rd. The high on April 5th was 29. Then up to 42" of snow fell... anything can happen.

post-599-0-70461400-1331695102.png

Thanks man.

Looking at the models the air moving in around the lower lakes is very warm the next 10 days. You would think some pretty rapid warming can take place if temps are in the 60s, 70s, and maybe low 80s every day for 10-15 days and a lot of sun.

EDIT:

eswt120.gif?t=1331701613

5 Day Forecast for Lake Erie.

Today:

eswt01.gif?t=1331701689

All of them go up quite a bit. Thats pretty neat. If this lasts for 15 more days the water could be ripe for some hardcore LES.

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We had record temps around 80F at the end of March 2007 that led to instant greenup, then one of the longest April deepfreezes on record (I think temps AOB 32F for 100 consecutive hours). The early jump to vegetation and corresponding freeze led to many flowering trees bearing no flowers at all...just eventually popping leaves. From the simple beauty of a flowering tree in spring to the downright livelihood of a farmer, early greenup followed by hard freeze is not good...but the combination happens almost everytime theres a very early greenup.

Another interesting note...Detroit had BACK TO BACK White Easters! Snow depth of 1" on Easter Sunday, April 8, 2007 was followed by snow depth of 3" on Easter Sunday, March 23, 2008 (many large snowbanks though from a 7.3-inch Good Friday storm). Though there were several Easters with a T of snowdepth, going back to 1900, the only other Easters with 1"+ snowdepth at Detroit were 1920 (3"), 1926 (1"), 1940 (1"), 2007 (1") and 2008 (3")

That 2007 warmup doesn't look as extreme as this one will be, which has me worried about the plants more. During the April cold snap here it was about 84 hours or so below freezing. Went as low as 19° on the 6th. 6" of snow on the 11th! I remember the neighbors magnolia tree started to bloom right at the end of the warmup then the cold hit and the buds dropped off. Sad looking leaves ended up coming out later in the spring.

At least the crops that are planted each spring can be held back until the last chances of freezing weather are over. I believe there was snow both of those Easter's too, I know there was plenty for 2008.

Edit: GFS shows a cold shot on the 27-28th. Minnesota snowstorm?

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12z ECMWF yesterday shows no signals of stopping the warmth. When we do return to normal it might be un-noticeable.

Don S gave his thoughts yesterday it was toasty straight to the end. March 2010 Is getting owned. Chatter of a warm ass April is becoming prevailent on the boards. History is being made.

There is something spooky or odd about this also. Anytime you get radical departures or deviations it raises an eyebrow.

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Yeah...wasn't there some ob last summer that was in the upper 80Fs for dew point? I think we had a few here in LSE in the low 80Fs...not fun stuff when that happens.

Maybe March will end up warmer then April...and May :)

I bet readings of 80+ are common smack dab in the middle of a corn field.

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That 2007 warmup doesn't look as extreme as this one will be, which has me worried about the plants more. During the April cold snap here it was about 84 hours or so below freezing. Went as low as 19° on the 6th. 6" of snow on the 11th! I remember the neighbors magnolia tree started to bloom right at the end of the warmup then the cold hit and the buds dropped off. Sad looking leaves ended up coming out later in the spring.

At least the crops that are planted each spring can be held back until the last chances of freezing weather are over. I believe there was snow both of those Easter's too, I know there was plenty for 2008.

Edit: GFS shows a cold shot on the 27-28th. Minnesota snowstorm?

Yeah, the 2007 warmup may have been more intense for a day or two, but this ones got longevity on its side. Hell, we MAY get through this entire warmup without a single record high set at Detroit (thinking our best chance to set one is Mar 19 or 20th)....its not that any individual high temp will be shocking necessarily, but this longevity looks to be in a league of its own, with the possible exception of March 1945.

Per ORH on the NE forum, the euro ensembles call for a trough to return to the east after March 25th. Me personally, I put VERY little stock in things so far out...but I know many take the euro weeklies and ensembles and stuff as religion (or at least they do when they show warmth :lol:). I do, however, know karma and climo...and I do not think we have seen winters last stand.

And funny you bring up the magnolia...the exact, and I mean EXACT thing you described happened to my mom sans flowers. The buds began to swell then the deepfreeze hit. Once the tree bloomed, it came in the form of leaves, so we went from the Spring of 2006 until 2008 before seeing the flowers that that tree is known for. Two distinct "wow" memories pop out from that spring of 2007. I can still remember going to my sisters softball game on I believe March 26 or 27 or something, and it was 81 degrees, and I would have thought it was mid-summer. It was crazy. The grass was now the spring green it shouldnt be til mid-April. Then, 2 weeks later, it was Easter Sunday, and I put on my winter coat to take my grandma an Easter Lily and as I was driving the powder snow was swirling in the streets and making small drifts on the curbs as it felt like mid-January.

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