forkyfork Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 this is a pretty good sounding considering it's march in the nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 this is a pretty good sounding considering it's march in the nyc area was just looking at that. Gotta be away from the marine influence, so inland areas up into the hudson valley. Even the TT's from the 12z soundings are good before the heating and destabalization begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Too far away from the best shear where the instability will be... Looks like best chances north of mason dixon in E Pa and up to the tip of NW Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 ...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTN... MODEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/WRN ENGLAND THIS AFTN...WITH MUCAPE LIKELY TO BE AOA 500 J/KG. BOTH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING IN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS WDLY SCTD AFTN STORMS ALONG TROUGH. GIVEN MODERATE DEEP WLY FLOW AND NEARLY ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT SHORT- LIVED...WITH ANY SVR ACTIVITY WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 2000 joules of MUCAPE creeping into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 KLGA BUFKIT forecast RUC sounding for 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 FAIL the nam, euro, and gfs all showed isolated activity yesterday and there was absolutely nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 the nam, euro, and gfs all showed isolated activity yesterday and there was absolutely nothing And the spc-wrf, which is usually stellar with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well, it looked like South of the Mason-Dixon Line and north of I-90 were the winners here. Until next time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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