lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 3 weeks till im in OP! Cant wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 The weather has been too boring of late for my taste. http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2012/05/summer-outlook-2012-blog-post.html Summer outlook for the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I'm surprised there isn't more chat about today's threat of severe weather! There's relatviely steep lapse rates in the hail growth region, high downdraft-CAPE (up to 1500 J/kg), and respectable (40-50 kts right ahead of the front) speed shear. Also, when's the last time SPC mentioned golf ball sized hail for upstate NY? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NY...VT...NERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 161627Z - 161830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT ONCE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FIRST IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN PA INTO WRN NY...BUT INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOW WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S F. FARTHER E...ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WAS PERSISTING FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN AND CNTRL NY...ON THE EDGE OF THE ADVANCING UPPER VORT. THE THIRD AREA WAS OVER SERN NY AND VT...NEAR THE SURFACE THETA-E AXIS WHERE MUCAPE WAS APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND LITTLE CIN...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM BY 18-19Z. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT...BUT OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER E IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. A WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...PERHAPS MORE WITH THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY WHERE STORM MODE COULD BENEFIT FORM MERGED OUTFLOWS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2KM...BUT...WINDS WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN A WEAK...BRIEF SPIN-UP. ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/16/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 1 week till im in OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 1 week till im in OP. You act like OP is in a different state or something. It's 10 minutes from Downtown Buffalo lol...The climate is nearly identical. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 0447 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BUFFALO NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 1911. Mighty HOT out today. Good beach afternoon! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 You act like OP is in a different state or something. It's 10 minutes from Downtown Buffalo lol...The climate is nearly identical. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 0447 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BUFFALO NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 1911. Mighty HOT out today. Good beach afternoon! =) Dude OP in lake effect season is a whole other world compared to downtown Buffalo. And im in cleve hill and before that i was in amherst. OP gets a good deal more snow than amherst , not to mention OP is much closer to the real ski country and boston hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 Dude OP in lake effect season is a whole other world compared to downtown Buffalo. And im in cleve hill and before that i was in amherst. OP gets a good deal more snow than amherst , not to mention OP is much closer to the real ski country and boston hills We will see. Has not been that different down here compared to Amherst for me. Minus that Dec 1st-3rd event of course. But whatever floats your boat. Its a 10 minute drive from Town of OP to Downtown Buffalo. Not far enough to make a difference. Not to mention its summer, so why would posts like this matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 We will see. Has not been that different down here compared to Amherst for me. Minus that Dec 1st-3rd event of course. But whatever floats your boat. Its a 10 minute drive from Town of OP to Downtown Buffalo. Not far enough to make a difference. Not to mention its summer, so why would posts like this matter? Its actually 20 minutes away. Taking the 219 to the 90 then to the 190 is the quickest way, and its rougly 16 miles. Not a huge deal but it will be fun to be in the southtowns for once because at least it seems to me that the northtowns always get screwed while the southtowns always cash in on lake effect events compared to the northtowns. But sorry it bothers you so much that i posted about OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 By the way lake Erie is 59 degrees today which is 10 (YES TEN) degrees above average and an all time warm record for this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 BUF has a shot at the warmest May on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 BUF has a shot at the warmest May on record. What are you thinking for the end of this week. Models are saying 850s up to 20c and Heights reaching well into the 580s.could we take a shot at 90 with such dry soil moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 What are you thinking for the end of this week. Models are saying 850s up to 20c and Heights reaching well into the 580s.could we take a shot at 90 with such dry soil moisture? yeah..i'd favor the ec which keeps more warmth over BUF. It has mid-80s all weekend with no fropa. I'd think we'd have a shot at 90 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 yeah..i'd favor the ec which keeps more warmth over BUF. It has mid-80s all weekend with no fropa. I'd think we'd have a shot at 90 on Monday. With these hot temps and the lake on the rapid incline in terms of temps i bet she has a chance at breaking the all time warmest temp for may which is 66 degrees. Were now sitting at 59 degrees so the temp of the lake would have to rise 7 degrees to tie it and 8 to break the all time may record but i think we have a decent shot with 10 days left in the month. And considering we started this month At 46 degrees and now in 21 days weve risen 13 degrees since i think this is breakable especally with the consistent warm temps in the forecast. Love when that lake gets warm, contributes to thunderstorms in the late summer and fall as opposed to stabalizing the air. Hopefully well break the all time record warm lake temp set just last year at 80 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 It's turning into a swamp here. After that dry early spring, it just won't stop raining. Reminding me of the rainy spring/summer/fall of last year. Oh we had 2-3 weeks of hot drier wx last summer before the rainy pattern returned again. yeah..i'd favor the ec which keeps more warmth over BUF. It has mid-80s all weekend with no fropa. I'd think we'd have a shot at 90 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 There will be some severe chances over the next week or two...looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 There will be some severe chances over the next week or two...looks pretty impressive. Maybe an MCS this weekend riding along top of that cold front that will slide back up as a warm front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Maybe an MCS this weekend riding along top of that cold front that will slide back up as a warm front? Yeah that's possible. I'm more impressed with severe weather for Monday evening when the shortwave approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Lake Erie has reached 60F...the earliest to reach that temperature by a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Lake Erie has reached 60F...the earliest to reach that temperature by a day. Keep it roasting. Would love to see it break another record this season. Would love for it to stay warm for lake effect season and i dont think we could even see another winter close to what we saw this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Keep it roasting. Would love to see it break another record this season. Would love for it to stay warm for lake effect season and i dont think we could even see another winter close to what we saw this past winter. Yeah, one nice early season PV setup, and you guys will be good to go. LOL. Your totals last winter even made me sad, and I don't even live up there. Seeing those bands drop hours of 35 dbz rates is a beautiful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah, one nice early season PV setup, and you guys will be good to go. LOL. Your totals last winter even made me sad, and I don't even live up there. Seeing those bands drop hours of 35 dbz rates is a beautiful thing. 36" for the whole season. Usually we see that in December alone. Last season i was in a lake effect storm that dropped 40" in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I don't care about the lake temp for lake-effect season lol...I'm talking about the helping hand for thunderstorm threats. It's easier to get severe weather when the lake is 65 or 70 vs. 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Obviously difficult to forecast, but I'd look to Sunday afternoon/evening for a ridge rolling mesoscale convective system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 25, 2012 Author Share Posted May 25, 2012 36" for the whole season. Usually we see that in December alone. Last season i was in a lake effect storm that dropped 40" in 2 days. Your girlfriend was there, you were stuck in Amherst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Your girlfriend was there, you were stuck in Amherst. Shush lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Some pop up thunderstorms right now just south and east of BUF? Looking foward to sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I'm becoming more confident of an MCS...possible derecho over central and northern Michigan on Sunday night. Whether that translates well into our area remains to be seen...there will certainly be thunderstorms on Sunday with the warm front, at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I'm becoming more confident of an MCS...possible derecho over central and northern Michigan on Sunday night. Whether that translates well into our area remains to be seen...there will certainly be thunderstorms on Sunday with the warm front, at the very least. A possible similar setup to the June 30 (I think) 2006 MCS/derecho event that brought an F-2 tornado to cheektowaga,NY near the Galleria Mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 A possible similar setup to the June 30 (I think) 2006 MCS/derecho event that brought an F-2 tornado to cheektowaga,NY near the Galleria Mall. the "outbreak" in june 2006 wasn't a derecho. I honestly think this set up is quite different from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'd go about 90-92 in BUF on Monday. 95 or so in the torch locations of the Genesee Valley..and maybe about 80-85 downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.