Logan11 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 May 9, 1977 dropped 5 to 12 inches of snow (more at very high elevations) from the Finger Lakes east across NY State and most of central/southern NE. That fell with totally leafed trees. My only snow day ever in May. I've experienced a few late snows when small bushes had leaves on them, but I don't think ever with the tree leaves out at all. Snow that falls right around 31°, 32° sticks like glue to leaves and branches. Did have one early snowfall back here in NE IL that fell while some of the leaves were still on the trees, but for the most part the snow just acts to knock the leaves down instead of bringing down branches and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 same here so if this does happen as the models have it progged right now I'm thinking there will be hundreds of thousands without power in wny. Oct 2006 hit just the metro area and knocked out power to over a quarter of a million households. 8" or more would prob knock out half a million customers with such a broad area as compared to the Oct 2006 storm. don't think the damage could compare to Oct 2006 but the outages may if it goes as forecasted right now just due to the area involved. Lake Erie is also 46 degrees and with surface temperatures above freezing I do not see a foot of snow accumulating. Seems impossible, those clown maps from the GFS and especially the NAM seem so farfetched. Not to mention this is still 3 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Lake Erie is also 46 degrees and with surface temperatures above freezing I do not see a foot of snow accumulating. Seems impossible, those clown maps from the GFS and especially the NAM seem so farfetched. Not to mention this is still 3 days away... don't think the NWS would be putting it right in their AFD thar a foot or more of snow is possible for the interior of WNY and 8" even for BUF if it wasn't. everything would have to come together PERFECTLY for that to happene but it could. also the winds with this would primarily be out of the north so Erie wouldn't really have much to do with the BUF area itself Ontario would but even that not so much because BUF is a solid 25+ miles away from the shore. maybe from lockport north it would keep warm but I don't see it doing much to BUF. will definitely be Intresting to follow the models through sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 not only that, a lot of foliage in the fall was dying for the winter so once the weight of the snow accumulated on them a lot of them just dropped from the branch. with it being spring many of the newly leafed trees are very healthy and won't fall nearly as easily as a fall leaf may. I think if this storm pans out as forecasted (8" or more for KBUF) we could be looking at something very very serious. If the models hit dead on, I agree that there will certainly be tree damage. In a strange twist of irony though, the Buffalo 'burbs that got rocked in '06 should fair better than regions that havent; solely because susceptible branches that would fall under snow and foliage weight were recently stripped off. It's akin to having back to back 70 mph wind events on two weekends. The second event predictably produces far less damage...the area has become "battle hardened." That said, the Rochester area hasnt been cleaned out by ice or snow (severely) in 21 years. With one moderately damaging and very localized storm in 2003. If the numbers hit...there could be some serious issues. Also, you make an interesting point about when a tree is "stronger", either in the spring with fresh foliage, or fall at maximum growth. The fresh foliage certainly will not have any give and will hold on tight....not good. At the same time, leaves in October are giant and as heavy as they'll ever be, making them extremely heavy (ever pull leaves on a tarp to the curb?)... so its an interesting question. Because it was early October and many trees were still green!, I give 06 the checkmark here, but it's still a bad situation. In summary, I'm completely jacked to watch this storm. It almost redeems that wretched winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Anybody want to chime in on the chance of 850's(temps) coming east by 50 miles to include Syracuse? This storm could have one to two inch per hour rates in the defornation zone. Phoenix could use a good 4 to 8 of slop!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 If the models hit dead on, I agree that there will certainly be tree damage. In a strange twist of irony though, the Buffalo 'burbs that got rocked in '06 should fair better than regions that havent; solely because susceptible branches that would fall under snow and foliage weight were recently stripped off. It's akin to having back to back 70 mph wind events on two weekends. The second event predictably produces far less damage...the area has become "battle hardened." That said, the Rochester area hasnt been cleaned out by ice or snow (severely) in 21 years. With one moderately damaging and very localized storm in 2003. If the numbers hit...there could be some serious issues. Also, you make an interesting point about when a tree is "stronger", either in the spring with fresh foliage, or fall at maximum growth. The fresh foliage certainly will not have any give and will hold on tight....not good. At the same time, leaves in October are giant and as heavy as they'll ever be, making them extremely heavy (ever pull leaves on a tarp to the curb?)... so its an interesting question. Because it was early October and many trees were still green!, I give 06 the checkmark here, but it's still a bad situation. In summary, I'm completely jacked to watch this storm. It almost redeems that wretched winter. I was thinking the same exact thing that you said in your last statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Anybody want to chime in on the chance of 850's(temps) coming east by 50 miles to include Syracuse? This storm could have one to two inch per hour rates in the defornation zone. Phoenix could use a good 4 to 8 of slop!!! You guys are clowns. Why in the hell would you be praying for damaging and disruptive snow storms this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Whatever anyone does DO NOT start an individual thread for this upcoming storm. It always curses all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Thought I'd share this - off the new NAM run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Thought I'd share this - off the new NAM run: What website is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 What website is that? Penn State E-wall site: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallhires.html So far the NAM model only has these fancy maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Penn State E-wall site: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallhires.html So far the NAM model only has these fancy maps. Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I know all the focus is on the potential WNY/PA snow event...but some nice convection has fired up just west of Albany. Just had a good 35-40 mph gust and a couple rumbles of thunder. Was really a nice morning and early afternoon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Looks like KALB, just a couple miles down the road, gusted to 39 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Weatherbug just popped up a message. 10-16 inches of heavy wet snow...Really? Be the biggest storm so late in the season that I have ever seen. That October storm will still be unmatched though IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Weatherbug just popped up a message. 10-16 inches of heavy wet snow...Really? Be the biggest storm so late in the season that I have ever seen. That October storm will still be unmatched though IMO. that's the watch for southern erie and the western southern tier...the niagara frontier is 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Some nice elevated convection about to move in right now. Had some thunder and lightning earlier, looking foward to see these storms , which should pack a little more punch! Bring on spring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 could be a marginally severe MCS this evening/overnight. Tough to pin point exactly where it will set-up. BUF thinks over Lake Ontario...but predicting placement on these isn't an exact science. BUF likely will gets into the remnant elevated mixed layer later this afternoon as mid-level lapse rates approach 8C/km and total-totals into the mid-50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 could be a marginally severe MCS this evening/overnight. Tough to pin point exactly where it will set-up. BUF thinks over Lake Ontario...but predicting placement on these isn't an exact science. BUF likely will gets into the remnant elevated mixed layer later this afternoon as mid-level lapse rates approach 8C/km and total-totals into the mid-50s. Don Paul says these things have a tendency to slip further se than modeled so he thinks the Niagara frontier may get in on some of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Pretty nasty system over michigan and looks to be heading right this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 By the way 84 degrees. Sun is shining full strength and almost no wind. Dewpoint in the low 60s. Feels dead hot outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Nice hail spike on the BGM radar this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 There were quite a few severe thunderstorm warnings here over the western southerntier this evening. Watching that line move over southern Ontario, and should get in here about 11pm or so, just as Don paul said they would (drifting further se than modeled). Should be an intresting and hopefully loud night tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedbird747 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Some pretty impressive hail... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 820 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0747 PM HAIL NEWFIELD 42.37N 76.58W 05/03/2012 E2.75 INCH TOMPKINS NY PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Lots of popcorn thunderstorms really starting to pop in the last few frames on radar. Lots of thunder and lightning here but no rain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BUF&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1327800972&lat=42.940277&lon=-78.731941&label=Buffalo%2C+NY&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 As don paul just put it on air. Rapid intensification on thunderstorms now popping all over. What a hell of a lightshow right now outside! Right now KBUF is seeing some strong outflow from these storms. NW wind SUSTAINED at 22 mph. Temp has dropped to 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 The south side of Ithaca got hit very hard by the supercell around 8. I was just brushed by it but still got some 40-50 mph wind gusts and small hail. Looks like a few more rounds are on their way later on tonight. Hopefully the storms can hold off until the evening again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Had some really impressive lightning around 11 pm in Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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