Upstate NY/North Country: Heart of Spring 2012NY + adjacent ON, QC, VT

[LakeEffectKing]

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL PHASE THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW

WITH ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT

LAKES STATES. THE RESULT IS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS ON MONDAY OFF

THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A LOW TRACKING INTO INTERIOR NEW

ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. IF THIS TRACK WERE TO VERIFY...PRECIP WOULD

SPREAD BACK WEST INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPS

INTO THE MATURING CYCLONE TO ALLOW SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN...

ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NY. IF THIS WERE TO

VERIFY AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL

FOR A LATE SEASON ELEVATION DRIVEN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND

NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT AGAIN...THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT AND DURING

A PERIOD WHICH HAS HAD GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY...SO CONFIDENCE IS

FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT.

REGARDLESS OF THE LOW TRACK...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE

GREAT LAKES STATES...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND BY MIDWEEK AS THE

TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

[Logan11]

I'm not sure what they mean by six days out. It looks like 4 days out to me.

This is starting to remind me more of the 4/16/07 scenario as trends continue.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL PHASE THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW

WITH ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT

LAKES STATES. THE RESULT IS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS ON MONDAY OFF

THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A LOW TRACKING INTO INTERIOR NEW

ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. IF THIS TRACK WERE TO VERIFY...PRECIP WOULD

SPREAD BACK WEST INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPS

INTO THE MATURING CYCLONE TO ALLOW SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN...

ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NY. IF THIS WERE TO

VERIFY AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL

FOR A LATE SEASON ELEVATION DRIVEN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND

NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT AGAIN...THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT AND DURING

A PERIOD WHICH HAS HAD GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY...SO CONFIDENCE IS

FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT.

REGARDLESS OF THE LOW TRACK...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE

GREAT LAKES STATES...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND BY MIDWEEK AS THE

TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

[wolfie09]

Nam came in stronger and farther west!!

HR84

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06084.gif

Gfs just went wacko

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Lot of models seem to have come west a good bit. We were fringe city yesterday, now models seem to be generating a solid 2-4" of rain tomorrow through Monday. Of course, that also means any snow potential for higher elevations is also pushed west over the Appalachians.

[LakeEffectKing]

Lot of models seem to have come west a good bit. We were fringe city yesterday, now models seem to be generating a solid 2-4" of rain tomorrow through Monday. Of course, that also means any snow potential for higher elevations is also pushed west over the Appalachians.

I'd like to see if any of those -5 or -6's at 850 verify, and how that translates to p-type (during the day) this time of year relative to elevation. I'd think some of the higher southern tier hills could get pretty white early Monday morning with 850's near -5C....but really, just nuts to even talk about it, considering SYR hit 90F last week!!

[lakeeffectkid383]

I'd like to see if any of those -5 or -6's at 850 verify, and how that translates to p-type (during the day) this time of year relative to elevation. I'd think some of the higher southern tier hills could get pretty white early Monday morning with 850's near -5C....but really, just nuts to even talk about it, considering SYR hit 90F last week!!

Fwiw verbatim the 06z gfs would give BUF a foot or so of anow. Not buying it . However i believe if the models continue to stay where they are now some of the higher elevations south of BUF could pick up several inches.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Fwiw verbatim the 06z gfs would give BUF a foot or so of anow. Not buying it . However i believe if the models continue to stay where they are now some of the higher elevations south of BUF could pick up several inches.

Yeah...outside a freak event (i.e. an October repeat)...elevation is an absolute necessity this time of year. And of course, sun angle is a killer for daytime events and difficult to overcome without heavy snowfall rates. Still, some areas will be getting some must needed rain this weekend and it should really help green things up as we go into next week.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Yeah...outside a freak event (i.e. an October repeat)...elevation is an absolute necessity this time of year. And of course, sun angle is a killer for daytime events and difficult to overcome without heavy snowfall rates. Still, some areas will be getting some must needed rain this weekend and it should really help green things up as we go into next week.

Will be intresting to see the 12z Gfs. Have a feeling it will shift even further west.

[lakeeffectkid383]

12z NAM follows the 06z GFS and goes bonkers for BUF. 1.5" of QPF as all snow. Pretty crazy.

[Logan11]

My cousins at 2300' in Andover on the Southern Tier may be about to be buried. LOL

12z NAM follows the 06z GFS and goes bonkers for BUF. 1.5" of QPF as all snow. Pretty crazy.

[LakeEffectKing]

My cousins at 2300' in Andover on the Southern Tier may be about to be buried. LOL

Best looking map so far this winter for parts of our area....hoping for many more!!

[OSUmetstud]

still out of their good usable range, but these are the SREF 12hr snow probabilities.

[LakeEffectKing]

Euro keeps WNY nice and cold, and even keeps some slop hopes for the higher hills of CNY:

[LakeEffectKing]

• 
  

[OSUmetstud]

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY NOSES SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ON

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. COOLER AND

DRIER AIR WITH THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE

LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

THE REGION WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO SUNDAY WITH

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS RISING TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES BY

MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS A STRONG

STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND

RETROGRESSES TO NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY

GFS AND ECMWF...THE EC IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS...BUT THE

RESULT IS ABOUT THE SAME.

THIS PATTERN IS ALMOST A FRAME BY FRAME REPLAY OF AN EVENT WHICH

OCCURRED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD OF APRIL 2005. THERE WAS AN 8 INCH

SNOWFALL AT KBUF WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA

RIDGE...AND EVEN TWO FEET OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA AND

NORTHEAST OHIO.

THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR AMOUNT

OF SNOW IN VERY SIMILAR LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT A COMPARISON OF THE

2005 EVENT AND CURRENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE VERTICAL TEMP/DEWPOINT

PROFILE IS NEARLY EXACT WITH THE CURRENT DATA SHOWING EVEN MORE

MOISTURE ALOFT. THE 2005 EVENT HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM

.45 INCH TO .55 INCH...THE CURRENT DATA SHOW PWS AT OR ABOVE .75

INCH. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE COLDER BY A DEGREE OR TWO

SOUTH OF BUFFALO TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

SPEAKING OF MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WRAPPED

ABOUT THIS STORM...QPF FOR CENTRAL NY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL BE

ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 INCHES WITH 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN

NY. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SYR

AND ROC SOUTHWARD ALONG SENECA AND CAYUGA LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW

WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED ACROSS ALLEGANY/WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES

WITH SNOW TOTAL EXCEEDING A FOOT...ENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY TO

NORTHERN WINDS AND THE UPLIFT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE GENESEE

VALLEY.

EXPECT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS CENTRAL

TO NORTHERN NY. THE NEAR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL ABSORB THE

RAINFALL AS LONG AS IT IS NOT TOO MUCH TOO FAST...THEN THERE MAY BE

A RISK OF LOW IMPACT AND SHORT LIVED FLOODING.

TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE CHILLY WITH CONTINUED

NORTHERLY WINDS...MID 30S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND THE NORTH

COUNTRY...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY

AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE ONSET OF

SNOW WILL LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER.

THICK CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN DURING MONDAY.

EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE

NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW

PRESSURE. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY

SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND THE 30S

FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...IN THE REGION OF

CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SNOWFALL.

THE POPS WILL FALL FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW

PRESSURE CENTER LIFT NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE...BUT WILL

REMAIN AS A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS WILL BE

IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NY WITH

LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

[LakeEffectKing]

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY NOSES SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ON

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. COOLER AND

DRIER AIR WITH THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE

LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

THE REGION WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY START TO SUNDAY WITH

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS RISING TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES BY

MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS A STRONG

STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND

RETROGRESSES TO NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY

GFS AND ECMWF...THE EC IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS...BUT THE

RESULT IS ABOUT THE SAME.

THIS PATTERN IS ALMOST A FRAME BY FRAME REPLAY OF AN EVENT WHICH

OCCURRED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD OF APRIL 2005. THERE WAS AN 8 INCH

SNOWFALL AT KBUF WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA

RIDGE...AND EVEN TWO FEET OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA AND

NORTHEAST OHIO.

THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR AMOUNT

OF SNOW IN VERY SIMILAR LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT A COMPARISON OF THE

2005 EVENT AND CURRENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE VERTICAL TEMP/DEWPOINT

PROFILE IS NEARLY EXACT WITH THE CURRENT DATA SHOWING EVEN MORE

MOISTURE ALOFT. THE 2005 EVENT HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM

.45 INCH TO .55 INCH...THE CURRENT DATA SHOW PWS AT OR ABOVE .75

INCH. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE COLDER BY A DEGREE OR TWO

SOUTH OF BUFFALO TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

SPEAKING OF MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WRAPPED

ABOUT THIS STORM...QPF FOR CENTRAL NY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL BE

ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 INCHES WITH 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN

NY. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SYR

AND ROC SOUTHWARD ALONG SENECA AND CAYUGA LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW

WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED ACROSS ALLEGANY/WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES

WITH SNOW TOTAL EXCEEDING A FOOT...ENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY TO

NORTHERN WINDS AND THE UPLIFT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE GENESEE

VALLEY.

EXPECT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS CENTRAL

TO NORTHERN NY. THE NEAR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL ABSORB THE

RAINFALL AS LONG AS IT IS NOT TOO MUCH TOO FAST...THEN THERE MAY BE

A RISK OF LOW IMPACT AND SHORT LIVED FLOODING.

TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE CHILLY WITH CONTINUED

NORTHERLY WINDS...MID 30S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND THE NORTH

COUNTRY...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY

AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE ONSET OF

SNOW WILL LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER.

THICK CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN DURING MONDAY.

EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE

NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW

PRESSURE. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY

SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND THE 30S

FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...IN THE REGION OF

CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SNOWFALL.

THE POPS WILL FALL FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW

PRESSURE CENTER LIFT NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE...BUT WILL

REMAIN AS A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS WILL BE

IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NY WITH

LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

For reference:

[OSUmetstud]

Is the NARR a bit warm on temps? I look at a number of snowstorms for BUF and it always shows up right near the 0C 850 line or sometimes even south of it. Weird.

[LakeEffectKing]

Is the NARR a bit warm on temps? I look at a number of snowstorms for BUF and it always shows up right near the 0C 850 line or sometimes even south of it. Weird.

Not sure....but when I first pulled up the analogue, I was quite suprised by the lack of cold at 850 (at least)....

Have to mention that the upcoming event will:

1.) Be almost 3 weeks later.

2.) Coming on the heels of record warm winter...insanely warm March...and 80ish type weather 3 days out!!!

How fast can them flakes fall!!!?????

[OSUmetstud]

Not sure....but when I first pulled up the analogue, I was quite suprised by the lack of cold at 850 (at least)....

Have to mention that the upcoming event will:

1.) Be almost 3 weeks later.

2.) Coming on the heels of record warm winter...insanely warm March...and 80ish type weather 3 days out!!!

How fast can them flakes fall!!!?????

I'd been quite surprised at how ardent the gfs, nam, and ecmwf are with showing accumulating snow verbatim. The bl is actually quite cold for a nor'easter type snowstorm anytime of year.

[OSUmetstud]

Not sure....but when I first pulled up the analogue, I was quite suprised by the lack of cold at 850 (at least)....

Have to mention that the upcoming event will:

1.) Be almost 3 weeks later.

2.) Coming on the heels of record warm winter...insanely warm March...and 80ish type weather 3 days out!!!

How fast can them flakes fall!!!?????

I've noticed with a few other storms, too. March 2008 is one that comes to mind. BUF got 8" during the early April snowstorm so obviously cold wasn't a problem...it will be colder aloft during this one...as you said, fast is the key.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I've noticed with a few other storms, too. March 2008 is one that comes to mind. BUF got 8" during the early April snowstorm so obviously cold wasn't a problem...it will be colder aloft during this one...as you said, fast is the key.

all I can say is I hope the local Mets around here get the word out about this snow quickly because the way the weather is today (80 and sunny) no one is going to expect 8 inches of snow Monday. and if that 8" of snow does come true I can tell you there is going to be alottt of tree damage with the amount of foliage here in the BUF area.

[OSUmetstud]

all I can say is I hope the local Mets around here get the word out about this snow quickly because the way the weather is today (80 and sunny) no one is going to expect 8 inches of snow Monday. and if that 8" of snow does come true I can tell you there is going to be alottt of tree damage with the amount of foliage here in the BUF area.

Tree damage could be substantial but to be honest...it will pail in comparison to October 2006 and October 2011. The trees were much fuller with leaves then than they are now.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Tree damage could be substantial but to be honest...it will pail in comparison to October 2006 and October 2011. The trees were much fuller with leaves then than they are now.

nothing will ever compare to October 2006 not even October of 11 but I will say there is quite a bit of foliage here some trees are just budding but there are many almost fully leafed.

[Geos]

I was reading up on the pending storm coming... A comment about possible tree damage. The tree damage could be a lot worse than the autumn storm due to it being spring. With everything emerging out of winter dormancy early, the cost to trees and other types of plants could be substantial. Anything on the ground, would likely escape much harm from the cold due to the snow's insulating properties.

[OSUmetstud]

nothing will ever compare to October 2006 not even October of 11 but I will say there is quite a bit of foliage here some trees are just budding but there are many almost fully leafed.

I know...I'm back in West Seneca for the next week.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I was reading up on the pending storm coming... A comment about possible tree damage. The tree damage could be a lot worse than the autumn' storm due to it being spring. With everything emerging out of winter dormancy early, the cost to trees and other types of plants could be substantial. Anything on the ground, would likely escape much harm from the cold due to the snow's insulating properties.

not only that, a lot of foliage in the fall was dying for the winter so once the weight of the snow accumulated on them a lot of them just dropped from the branch. with it being spring many of the newly leafed trees are very healthy and won't fall nearly as easily as a fall leaf may. I think if this storm pans out as forecasted (8" or more for KBUF) we could be looking at something very very serious.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I know...I'm back in West Seneca for the next week.

you picked a great time buddy! could br the biggest snow of the entire winter. lmfao.

[Geos]

not only that, a lot of foliage in the fall was dying for the winter so once the weight of the snow accumulated on them a lot of them just dropped from the branch. with it being spring many of the newly leafed trees are very healthy and won't fall nearly as easily as a fall leaf may. I think if this storm pans out as forecasted (8" or more for KBUF) we could be looking at something very very serious.

I've experienced a few late snows when small bushes had leaves on them, but I don't think ever with the tree leaves out at all. Snow that falls right around 31°, 32° sticks like glue to leaves and branches. Did have one early snowfall back here in NE IL that fell while some of the leaves were still on the trees, but for the most part the snow just acts to knock the leaves down instead of bringing down branches and all.

[BuffaloWeather]

you picked a great time buddy! could br the biggest snow of the entire winter. lmfao.

I'll believe this when I see it. Seems to crazy to be true. It has happened in the past, but the foliage is SOO far ahead of schedule. Nearly all trees around my area are fully bloomed.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I'll believe this when I see it. Seems to crazy to be true. It has happened in the past, but the foliage is SOO far ahead of schedule. Nearly all trees around my area are fully bloomed.

same here so if this does happen as the models have it progged right now I'm thinking there will be hundreds of thousands without power in wny. Oct 2006 hit just the metro area and knocked out power to over a quarter of a million households. 8" or more would prob knock out half a million customers with such a broad area as compared to the Oct 2006 storm. don't think the damage could compare to Oct 2006 but the outages may if it goes as forecasted right now just due to the area involved.