ravensrule Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not saying that I'm agreeing with the following analogy, but something to think about... You have a weighted coin that lands on heads 70% of the time and tails 30% of the time. The last flip landed on heads. What are the chances that it will land on heads on the next flip? (yeah, it's more complicated than that, but that would involve a longer response ) Wow that is way to complex to follow after 10 hours at work. Maybe you can just spell it out instead of using the analogies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not saying that I'm agreeing with the following analogy, but something to think about... You have a weighted coin that lands on heads 70% of the time and tails 30% of the time. The last flip landed on heads. What are the chances that it will land on heads on the next flip? (yeah, it's more complicated than that, but that would involve a longer response ) LOVE the analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow that is way to complex to follow after 10 hours at work. Maybe you can just spell it out instead of using the analogies. lulz. Basically, "treat the storms independently and give one model the same odds of happening for every storm" is what the analogy was saying. So long as the two storms don't have a very direct impact on each other, anyway (say, back-to-back systems) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not saying that I'm agreeing with the following analogy, but something to think about... You have a weighted coin that lands on heads 70% of the time and tails 30% of the time. The last flip landed on heads. What are the chances that it will land on heads on the next flip? (yeah, it's more complicated than that, but that would involve a longer response ) 70%..... Edit: Oh. that was your point. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 70%..... Edit: Oh. that was your point. Carry on. yea 70% OBVVVVVVVVVVVV Ooooohhhhhhhhhh booooyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. Too late in the work day for some EDIT: Getting a little OT now... hopefully mods won't mind too much now that the disc. part is pretty much done on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ooooohhhhhhhhhh booooyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. Too late in the work day for some EDIT: Getting a little OT now... hopefully mods won't mind too much now that the disc. part is pretty much done on this run. Been out all day, missed the runs. Looks like the gfs and it's ensembles are against the euro and its. Its an improvemetn from last night but nothing has really been resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Been out all day, missed the runs. Looks like the gfs and it's ensembles are against the euro and its. Its an improvemetn from last night but nothing has really been resolved. Euro ensembles are a little west of the op, which means something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Euro ensembles are a little west of the op, which means something. You've probably looked closer than I have since I've been out all day. The euro is close to being a storm but still needs the trough to be sharper as it gets close to the coast. I could but also may not. The evolution of the northern stream reamins important. Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You've probably looked closer than I have since I've been out all day. The euro is close to being a storm but still needs the trough to be sharper as it gets close to the coast. I could but also may not. The evolution of the northern stream reamins important. Wes FYI, GGEM ensembles were west of the op, markedly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 except the pattern and setup is completely different. I realize there are a lot of simliarities on the outside with last year... but we shouldn't be comparing to it what so ever. State College NWS for what its worth: INCREASING CONCERN FOR A COASTAL STORM NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GIVEN TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO FCST LOWS TOO FAR EAST THIS THE LAST FEW SEASONS. ALSO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A LOW ABOUT 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS SHOW. FOR NOW... DID UP POPS TO 20 PERCENT EAST OF MTS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SITUATION SIMILAR TO LAST DECEMBER 19TH STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Mt. Holly AFD: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY...ALBEIT RATHER SLIM ATTM...FOR AN EAST COAST STORM SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN SHOWS A BIG SNOW EVENT FOR OUR AREA BUT THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE GEFS MEAN KEEPS THE SFC LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS ALMOST ALL PRECIP TO OUR SE. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH FOR FORECASTING THIS DAY 5 EVENT. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AREAS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST WOULD MORE LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER MUCH OR LITTLE WOULD OCCUR.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You've probably looked closer than I have since I've been out all day. The euro is close to being a storm but still needs the trough to be sharper as it gets close to the coast. I could but also may not. The evolution of the northern stream reamins important. Wes wes rthe 12z euro ense,mble mean is a good run for eastern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You've probably looked closer than I have since I've been out all day. The euro is close to being a storm but still needs the trough to be sharper as it gets close to the coast. I could but also may not. The evolution of the northern stream reamins important. Wes At the same time though I do not like the orientation of its PV and trough axis...if the storm does get better captured or the trough amplifies faster this could very well move due north into the Hudson/CT Valley...its funny how some 12Z GFS ensembles did show an inland solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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