Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Further east? Seems a little west to me... Its looks better at 500 mb.....to me it seems like the storm is the same postion...perhaps with more of a expansive preciep shield.......even with the small inprovements at 500mb.....still cold and dry for you and i.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well, Euro and GGEM balk at the idea. Threat is still real, but my enthusiasm level just took a sharp drop. I'd like to see the Euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well, Euro and GGEM balk at the idea. Threat is still real, but my enthusiasm level just took a sharp drop. I'd like to see the Euro ensembles Players are still out there though. If we can't thread the needle it'll be OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well, Euro and GGEM balk at the idea. Threat is still real, but my enthusiasm level just took a sharp drop. I'd like to see the Euro ensembles Look at the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well, Euro and GGEM balk at the idea. Threat is still real, but my enthusiasm level just took a sharp drop. I'd like to see the Euro ensembles Wouldn't worry unless there's no agreement by 12z Thursday - the GGEM ensembles looked good and it looked like the Euro was trying harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 WARNING ANYMORE JB POSTS IN MODEL THREADS WILL GET YOU AN AUTOMATIC 5 POSTS PER DAY LIMIT YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 WARNING ANYMORE JB POSTS IN MODEL THREADS WILL GET YOU AN AUTOMATIC 5 POSTS PER DAY LIMIT YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED Sorry I honestly didn't know of this rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Sorry I honestly didn't know of this rule. you were fine you were just responding to the JB crap. the model threads are for model disco only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The GFS individual ensembles really run the gamut... few out to sea... few monster hits, few just inland http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture Only 3 of those members show no snow for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 For what its worth, and I do know the set up is different...this is very strangely what the models were showing for Dec. 19-20 on Dec. 14th last year...mostly out to sea with a few outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 The fact that a lot of the GFS ens show inland runners is a good sign against the out to sea crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 For what its worth, and I do know the set up is different...this is very strangely what the models were showing for Dec. 19-20 on Dec. 14th last year...mostly out to sea with a few outliers. This is true. There's no meteorological sense behind my rationale for agreeing but it sure does seem familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This true. There's no meteorological sense behind my rationale for agreeing but it sure does seem familiar. except the pattern and setup is completely different. I realize there are a lot of simliarities on the outside with last year... but we shouldn't be comparing to it what so ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This true. There's no meteorological sense behind my rationale for agreeing but it sure does seem familiar. I have those maps still...I'll probably post them in the PA subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 except the pattern and setup is completely different. I realize there are a lot of simliarities on the outside with last year... but we shouldn't be comparing to it what so ever. I'm not disagreeing with you nor even want to compare; trust me I get it. But that storm offshore and slowly moving back west idea sure seems familiar to 12/19/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm not disagreeing with you nor even want to compare; trust me I get it. But that storm offshore and slowly moving back west idea sure seems familiar to 12/19. Yes... it is familiar. Models did not form a consensous with 12.19 last year until about the 17th... there is time for things to change. But, we need a lot to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The situation is similar though...Miller A shown OTS with a crushing PV to the North... Set up is different, but the point is that its not unprecedented to see these models forecast east coast storms 200+ miles too far east at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm not disagreeing with you nor even want to compare; trust me I get it. But that storm offshore and slowly moving back west idea sure seems familiar to 12/19/09. but thats pretty much the case with alot of I95 coastal bombs.......very rarely do we see an APP runner trending to a I95 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The situation is similar though...Miller A shown OTS with a crushing PV to the North... Set up is different, but the point is that its not unprecedented to see these models forecast east coast storms 200+ miles too far east at 120 hours. Although if I remember correctly it was the GFS that was clueless. It didn't show what the 0Z run had today. Doesn't matter what it showed last year to be honest but it's fun talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Although if I remember correctly it was the GFS that was clueless. It didn't show what the 0Z run had today. Doesn't matter what it showed last year to be honest but it's fun talking about it. Well obviously its not exactly the same...but there's no reason to discount the threat until Friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Anybody have word on the Euro Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Anybody have word on the Euro Ensembles? randy, unless will or some other met got the info, that won't be out till 330 on allan's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 randy, unless will or some other met got the info, that won't be out till 330 on allan's site Ok, thanks. Wasn't sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Anybody have word on the Euro Ensembles? Euro Ens. mean says: Stick with the Euro Op. (OTS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I hear the Euro Ensembles look just like the OP Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I hear the Euro Ensembles look just like the OP Euro Ninja'd Ensembles are a little further north with the 500 heights and 850 temps, but the SFC looks very much in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looking at my AccuWx PPV 6 hour Euro QPF, Chatham would get about 2 inches. Plymouth a dusting. Nada ISP and BOS. Will the guys that did the Hurricane Earl party be starting a chase thread in the SNE forums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ninja'd Ensembles are a little further north with the 500 heights and 850 temps, but the SFC looks very much in agreement. So GFS shows bomb and Euro shows OTS. Last time the GFS was right and the Euro was wrong on these solutions was... umm.. uhh... anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So GFS shows bomb and Euro shows OTS. Last time the GFS was right and the Euro was wrong on these solutions was... umm.. uhh... anyone know? 12-19-09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So GFS shows bomb and Euro shows OTS. Last time the GFS was right and the Euro was wrong on these solutions was... umm.. uhh... anyone know? Not saying that I'm agreeing with the following analogy, but something to think about... You have a weighted coin that lands on heads 70% of the time and tails 30% of the time. The last flip landed on heads. What are the chances that it will land on heads on the next flip? (yeah, it's more complicated than that, but that would involve a longer response ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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