12z Model Thread 12/14/10

[Riptide]

Guess it goes to show how small changes can impact the final outcome, and the fact that we are far from determining a final, concrete solution.

It is looking more likely if not certain that the storm will actually form and impact someone along the East Coast.

[Guest someguy]

As expected. They have been doing this the last 3 days...mostly supported by a minority of the ensemble members.

12s gfs ens has 8 of 12 with BIG / major coastal Low

that is More than last few runs

[Kmlwx]

It is looking more likely if not certain that the storm will actually form and impact someone along the East Coast.

Agree - I meant in terms of FINAL outcome (read: exact location etc and track)

12s gfs ens has 8 of 12 with BIG / major coastal Low

that is More than last few runs

Would seem to give credit to the increasing overall threat?

[Ed Lizard]

Other than Alan's page, which hasn't started updating, anywhere else to see the UK model past 72 hours?

[tombo82685]

Other than Alan's page, which hasn't started updating, anywhere else to see the UK model past 72 hours?

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=fr

[SteveB]

If we ever needed a resounding "yes" out of Dr. No, today would be the day.

[Kaner587]

12s gfs ens has 8 of 12 with BIG / major coastal Low

that is More than last few runs

ya I wouldn't exactly call it a "minority" of them its definitely a strong signal on the GFS we'll see if it out to lunch or has maybe latched on to a stronger southern stream (for once NOT playing into its bias of not noticing a STJ)

[yoda]

It appears that at 96 hrs (its slowly updating)... out of the 7 so far I see at least 3 have a low in GA/SC -- RE: GGEM Ensembles

[Kaner587]

If we ever needed a resounding "yes" out of Dr. No, today would be the day.

that would definitely help...any more time and we gotta start thinking if maybe the EURO is correct, however, you cannot deny the changes at 00z last night wrt to the overall set-up which seemed much more conducive to a big storm closer to the coast.

[stormtracker]

12s gfs ens has 8 of 12 with BIG / major coastal Low

that is More than last few runs

Yeah, its definitely not a minority of members.

[Absolute Humidity]

Lol, that is identical to what happened last year. Snow on the 19th-20th and then a big wash away rain on Christmas.

Interesting since the very next frame at 324 shows it all changing over to snow, accumulating snow. Haha

[baroclinic_instability]

ya I wouldn't exactly call it a "minority" of them its definitely a strong signal on the GFS we'll see if it out to lunch or has maybe latched on to a stronger southern stream (for once NOT playing into its bias of not noticing a STJ)

I am looking at Ewall which only shows 11 with the control. As DTK said there are now at least 20 members. Anyways, it looks to me 5 or so develop a coastal hit and a few others develop a coastal low but it isnt much of a hit. I wouldn't call those 3 a major storm/hit. I think sometimes the 12 hr qpf on those small maps make everything look like a monster storm/

[Quasievil]

12s gfs ens has 8 of 12 with BIG / major coastal Low

that is More than last few runs

Not all of those are snow though...

[yoda]

GGEM ensemble members at 108 and 120

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

[baroclinic_instability]

Here is the full ensemble suite 6Z (all 20 members) on Ewall (without QPF), just looking at the height field I wouldn't say a majority suggest a hit.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTWIDE_6z/ensloopwide.html

EDIT: 12Z not out yet.

[OSUmetstud]

Here is the full ensemble suite on Ewall (without QPF), just looking at the height field I wouldn't say a majority suggest a hit.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopwide.html

Those are from 12z yesterday I believe...

[Zir0b]

[baroclinic_instability]

Those are from 12z yesterday I believe...

Yeah you are right, have to revert to 6z for now.

[Allsnow]

The first wave is not as far north on the 12z euro that it was at 00z.....has .25-.50 of frozen for central VA. Close to .10 for DC, and less then that north of there

[yoda]

GGEM ensembles really seem to my eye to be west of the OP.

UKIE at 96 has 1005 low around the Cape Hatteras NC area. At 120, we have a 982 low 300ish miles off the EC (estimate) At 144, looks like the low gets swung back and its in the Gulf of Maine, extreme eastern SNE (around or just east of Boston).

[Ed Lizard]

GEM run #10 rocks the world...

[goombatommy]

The first wave is not as far north on the 12z euro that it was at 00z.....has .25-.50 of frozen for central VA. Close to .10 for DC, and less then that north of there

When you say first wave - you mean Thurs/Fri?

[Allsnow]

hr 102 broad area of low pressure of the se coast...looks nothing like the gfs...dont think its going to do it this run

[Allsnow]

When you say first wave - you mean Thurs/Fri?

yes

[Allsnow]

hr 108 broad area of low pressure 1008 east of hse...light snow for northern NC and se va outside the beaches

[Allsnow]

hr 120 992 low 300-400 miles east of the NJ shore...prob scrape eastern LI and Cape with preciep

[PhineasC]

So, better than 00Z?

[TUweathermanDD]

HR 120

[Allsnow]

So, better than 00Z?

Pretty much the same......prob a tad further east.....

[PhineasC]

Pretty much the same......prob a tad further east.....

Further east? Seems a little west to me...