WhiteoutWX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Great run, actually. I was totally wrong. MECS from DCA up the coast. NYC gets demolished. This was good for RIC too. Maybe a little light rain to start, then 850s crash, foot plus totals verbatim with about 1.5' QPF. Although any warmer and sleet becomes a worry. Awesome evolution overall though this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 whatever ultimately happens, tight gradient on this storm, but that started to become apparent yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Plenty cold for most as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The SREFs are basically the NAM ensembles. This is only sort of correct. The SREF is actually a multi-model (various members have different dynamics AND physics) & perturbed initial condition ensemble run at lower resolution than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Note the 700mb and 850 lows... classic on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Who let the dogs out, looks like it just sits and bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 since the northern 500 Low over MN is NOT diving se and hence no full phase this looks a lot like feb 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This is only sort of correct. The SREF is actually a multi-model (various members have different dynamics AND physics) & perturbed initial condition ensemble run at lower resolution than the NAM. Sort of correct if usually about as good as I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 since the northern 500 Low over MN is NOT diving se and hence no full phase this looks a lot like feb 1983 So basically, the GFS scenario is based in some reality...that thing can come up like that without a full phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 FEB 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The evolution at 500mb does not seem to support the eventual track or strength of that low....there seems to be no real phase evident from what I'm seeing til suddenly at 126 hours...I'd like to see how many ensembles show this same scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 FEB 1983 WOW Dave, good find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 WOW Dave, good find http://www.northshorewx.com/19830211.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 DT great analog. Those images from 1983 def. match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Crushing For this run. Like you said a few posts ago, We'll see what dr. no shows us in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This run shows a slower mover compared to 83. But still a great pickup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The evolution at 500mb does not seem to support the eventual track or strength of that low....there seems to be no real phase evident from what I'm seeing til suddenly at 126 hours...I'd like to see how many ensembles show this same scenario. Its not a full phase... but the trough axis is already neutral by hr 102, and negative tilt by 108. I would be interested to see how much this storm could explode if it did actually fully phase the two streams. Bombs away for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 84 HOURS GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Its not a full phase... but the trough axis is already neutral by hr 102, and negative tilt by 108. I would be interested to see how much this storm could explode if it did actually fully phase the two streams. Bombs away for sure. I think this solution as well as the 06Z GFS yesterday are about as good as you will get regardless because it just isn't all that cold. It is kinda like ACE with tropical systems (bad analogy), but there is a limit to strength based on the baroclinic zone. I think this potential storm has reached it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The evolution at 500mb does not seem to support the eventual track or strength of that low....there seems to be no real phase evident from what I'm seeing til suddenly at 126 hours...I'd like to see how many ensembles show this same scenario. STONGLY AGREE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Although (at the risk of being pegged as a model weenie) everything gets washed away a week later... http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_312.shtml Meh, who cares. Give me a good week now, I'll take Christmas holiday rain. A bird in the hand and all that.... Lol, that is identical to what happened last year. Snow on the 19th-20th and then a big wash away rain on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The GFS is phasing in a shortwave over MT/UT that moves southeast from there through the Plains and into the Southeast States. It's been showing this for at least three or four OP runs now. You can loop it here and watch the shortwave phase. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think this solution as well as the 06Z GFS yesterday are about as good as you will get regardless because it just isn't all that cold. It is kinda like ACE with tropical systems (bad analogy), but there is a limit to strength based on the baroclinic zone. I think this potential storm has reached it. You are probably right, Im not a met (yet). Im certainly not unhappy with it as shown though. GGEM looks flaaaat at 84, but with room for amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Its not a full phase... but the trough axis is already neutral by hr 102, and negative tilt by 108. I would be interested to see how much this storm could explode if it did actually fully phase the two streams. Bombs away for sure. missing the point totoally a full, pjhase pulls this Low up the coast that is what the minster euro rusn were showing last weekend this 12z gfs does NOT do this at all this is PURE southern stream or the STJ energy going severely negative period there severe negative tilt of the s/w captures the Low and pulls it North SOME not all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The GFS is phasing in a shortwave over MT/UT that moves southeast from there through the Plains and into the Southeast States. It's been showing this for at least three or four OP runs now. You can loop it here and watch the shortwave phase. http://www.meteo.psu...avnloopnew.html Yup! That's why our southern stream shortwave gets so strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think this solution as well as the 06Z GFS yesterday are about as good as you will get regardless because it just isn't all that cold. It is kinda like ACE with tropical systems (bad analogy), but there is a limit to strength based on the baroclinic zone. I think this potential storm has reached it. Maybe not that cold by Minnesota standards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Took a look at the thermal fields at 144-150 GFS, definitely has a low level warm core. Granted, that isn't all that unusual, but interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You are probably right, Im not a met (yet). Im certainly not unhappy with it as shown though. GGEM looks flaaaat at 84. Its going to Bermuda based on the 84 hour prediction unless something really changes from then til 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 missing the point totoally a full, pjhase pulls this Low up the coast that is what the minster euro rusn were showing last weekend this 12z gfs does NOT do this at all this is PURE southern stream or the STJ energy going severely negative period there severe negative tilt of the s/w captures the Low and pulls it North SOME not all the way So what you're saying is, Correct me if I'm wrong... The GFS has not moved towards the initial solution of the EURO from the weekend that caused all the excitement. It has found it's own solution that has a similar result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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