Atlas Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 9z 87 HR SREF def leaves more energy lagging back in Texas http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_50h_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 At 48 hours there is more energy being held in the SW on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 At 54, the 12z NAM again crushes the flat wave south into S VA/N NC (Thursday event). It seems the wave really becomes sheared out by 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yoda, take a look at the difference with the wave (our weekend storm) in the SW, looks more robust and farther SW, much better for us. We need spacing and better timing. I expect good things from 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yoda, take a look at the difference with the wave (our weekend storm) in the SW, looks more robust and farther SW, much better for us. We need spacing and better timing. I expect good things from 12z suite. nam at 60 shows a more amped up s/w over the sw, more energy...With the PV moving over the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ridge out west seems to be a bit farther NW and have a bit more amplitude. compared to 0Z PV is also north of 0Z, which would mean less shaering out, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm no expert, but the important features on the NAM look slightly better to me at 78 hours with regard to our weekend threat. More digging, more amplitude, better heights out west, and - to my admittedly amateurish eye - looks like a better setup to get that northern piece to drop down and phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 the NAM WRF past 60 hrs is a little silly... the 5h over cnetral VA is 558 dm yet it has RIC warming to +5c at 850 mb .... that bpatern does not support especiually with that massive vortex sitting over Maine/new brunswick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 the NAM WRF past 60 hrs is a little silly... the 5h over cnetral VA is 558 dm yet it has RIC warming to +5c at 850 mb .... that bpatern does not support especiually with that massive vortex sitting over Maine/new brunswick Dave, is that piece of energy on the 84 hr NAM (yes I know at 84 hrs the NAM is garbage) in IA our PV piece to phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 the NAM WRF past 60 hrs is a little silly... the 5h over cnetral VA is 558 dm yet it has RIC warming to +5c at 850 mb .... that bpatern does not support especiually with that massive vortex sitting over Maine/new brunswick That SE ridge the NAM basically shows at 500mb at 84 hours aint happening...if it does the storm will happen, at least for NYC and Boston, I'm not sure DC would be all snow though if you believe the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 the NAM WRF past 60 hrs is a little silly... the 5h over cnetral VA is 558 dm yet it has RIC warming to +5c at 850 mb .... that bpatern does not support especiually with that massive vortex sitting over Maine/new brunswick Its colder at the surface--- is there a mechanism to warm it a the mid levels like that? That SE ridge the NAM basically shows at 500mb at 84 hours aint happening...if it does the storm will happen, at least for NYC and Boston, I'm not sure DC would be all snow though if you believe the NAM. Yeah, noticed that too-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Seems to me for the I95 areas that there is little wiggle room in terms of a full phase/coastal hugger with a 'warmer' solution and the flat partial-phased solutions we are seeing. Each successive suite seems to be diminishing that small area of opportunity that lies in the middle for I95 snowstorm. Full phase and the warmer Atlantic air gets drawn in ... a partial phase and this only hits the Southern MA and Eastern New England. Hope we can find that needle in the haystack on future runs, but as noted earlier, there will be wild swings in modeling solutions until data gets into a better sampling area. 12Z tomorrow should start to hone in on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Seems to me for the I95 areas that there is little wiggle room in terms of a full phase/coastal hugger with a 'warmer' solution and the flat partial-phased solutions we are seeing. Each successive suite seems to be diminishing that small area of opportunity that lies in the middle for I95 snowstorm. Full phase and the warmer Atlantic air gets drawn in ... a partial phase and this only hits the Southern MA and Eastern New England. Hope we can find that needle in the haystack on future runs, but as noted earlier, there will be wild swings in modeling solutions until data gets into a better sampling area. 12Z tomorrow should start to hone in on things. only the UKMET had a wet solution for I95 and that was at 0Z yesterday. I'm pretty sure the PV keeps us cold enough for an all-snow solution in the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I could be wrong, but the NAM at 84 hours looks prime for a nice storm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I could be wrong, but the NAM at 84 hours looks prime for a nice storm, no? you are wrong...but not about the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I could be wrong, but the NAM at 84 hours looks prime for a nice storm, no? Blows up a SE ridge--- WOW, would be icy down my way. Also, looks to be decent energy emerging from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 only the UKMET had a wet solution for I95 and that was at 0Z yesterday. I'm pretty sure the PV keeps us cold enough for an all-snow solution in the big cities. I'm tending to agree that this is either snow or no for PHL- NYC. Most models are showing a grazing which leaves room for some westward trending. I dont see any real concern on guidance or expected upper ait pattern to think this would come so far west to bring much concern for precip type at this point for most. This knid of reminds me of all the near misses in 07/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm tending to agree that this is either snow or no for PHL- NYC. Most models are showing a grazing which leaves room for some westward trending. I dont see any real concern on guidance or expected upper ait pattern to think this would come so far west to bring much concern for precip type at this point for most. This knid of reminds me of all the near misses in 07/08. In this pattern the only way I see a changeover in those two cities is some sort of scenario where the low sort of backs in or tracks a bit NNW but I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I could be wrong, but the NAM at 84 hours looks prime for a nice storm, no? Wes? Don't make me call you by your real first name! That's how you know I mean it! What's your opinion on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 12z GFS at 42 is significantly farther north and east with the Thursday storm. Stronger precipitation field into KY and Middle Tennessee.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS is really close to showing a decent little event THU/FRI for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS is really close to showing a decent little event THU/FRI for DC. Looks to be in and out in 12 hrs... a 1-3 inch event. The 700mb RH field reaches into PA at 54 and fills all of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks to be in and out in 12 hrs... a 1-3 inch event. The 700mb RH field reaches into PA at 54 and fills all of VA At this point, a 1" snow is a big deal. But it does look as if the GFS is trending toward our side. Also, some of the SREF members from 9z looked OK. Someone said there was a tie-in with the NAM and the srefs, think it was IAN, but not sure who or what the connection is. Maybe the NAM will slowly come our way also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks to be in and out in 12 hrs... a 1-3 inch event. The 700mb RH field reaches into PA at 54 and fills all of VA Its about as ideal as it gets on the GFS for my hood---precip is pretty much over when the h85 warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 At this point, a 1" snow is a big deal. But it does look as if the GFS is trending toward our side. Also, some of the SREF members from 9z looked OK. Someone said there was a tie-in with the NAM and the srefs, think it was IAN, but not sure who or what the connection is. Maybe the NAM will slowly come our way also. The SREFs are basically the NAM ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 99 low pressure in southern GA, Looks to have rising hgts along the east coast...i believe this will be closer to the coast then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS looks like the biggie is gonna go straight out to sea. Huge differences in PV strength over SE canada compared to 00z. Much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 99 low pressure in southern GA, Looks to have rising hgts along the east coast...i believe this will be closer to the coast then 06z GFS looks like the biggie is gonna go straight out to sea. Huge differences in PV strength over SE canada compared to 00z. Much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 105 light snow to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The SREFs are basically the NAM ensembles. Thanks. There are some pretty good solutions in there for our neck of the woods. I'm talking Thursday, of course, not any further out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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