David Reimer Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I'm passing through SPS right now on my way up to the Panhandle. I'll likely chill in Childress for a bit with the option to move north. The 12Z NAM is very concerning for tomorrow. My live chasecam us up at www.texasstormchasers.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 For Canadian, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 According to the SPC, today will be nothing special at all. I STILL don't get how they can mention very large hail and only have a 15% hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 According to the SPC, today will be nothing special at all. I STILL don't get how they can mention very large hail and only have a 15% hatched. Coverage is not expected to be widespread enough to support higher probabilities, but the storms that form are expected to be beasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 According to the SPC, today will be nothing special at all. I STILL don't get how they can mention very large hail and only have a 15% hatched. The reason is because they are anticipating a more isolated evening convective threat. So the percentage of seeing significant hail within 25 miles of a point is not very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I want a cap to keep things isolated, but the strength of this cap is starting to worry me a bit when it comes to pre-dark convection. That and the lingering clouds are beginning to concern me a bit. I think I am agreeing with the SPC outlooks now... that's not to say there won't be supercells or tornadoes... possibly even a couple strong. BUT cells will be very isolated and anytime things are that isolated, you can't put huge risk up. Just hoping to be in an area near where those one or two cells pop. Here in Wheeler, TX waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Trend is your friend? Back to back runs showing more like scattered rather than isolated convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Hope so... but if the clouds don't break up soon, its a little unrealistic IMO... that doesn't mean I am saying its not going to happen...I just don't like the sky right now... few breaks and thick clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 This is scary... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ 12z SPC WRF is in. Simulated reflectivity suggests isolated development mainly over western OK late afternoon and then the linear development with the cold front later. Interestingly, hourly max updraft helicities are not all that impressive with the isolated development progged. FWIW, it has a big supercell basically right over DFW late tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 This is scary... http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/12/ Which part is scary? I was just looking at that, interesting that we put that up at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 This is scary... http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/12/ That's a significant increase in coverage over 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Which part is scary? I was just looking at that, interesting that we put that up at the same time. the fact you have you several discrete, long-lived and intense updrafts that go from the TX PH into nw OK. And then there is tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 RUC STP parameter seems to be favoring west central OK northward into Kansas 00z-06z tonight. I think it will be a very interesting evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 the fact you have you several discrete, long-lived and intense updrafts I was referring more to the isolated development initially, agreed that the later period toward evening is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Wow, I was beginning to lose a bit of confidence there in the cap weakening enough, but that run there and HRRR showing scattered discrete convection has to be working off something, those cells would be entering an explosive environment, except for maybe the LCL issues at times, which should wane later on, if the cells can maintain themselves. That, and good lord at the NAM for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 the fact you have you several discrete, long-lived and intense updrafts that go from the TX PH into nw OK. And then there is tomorrow.. I wrote that too soon, came across as not looking at the model! Focused solely on the 21z hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Wow, I was beginning to lose a bit of confidence there in the cap weakening enough, but that run there and HRRR showing scattered discrete convection has to be working off something, those cells would be entering an explosive environment, except for maybe the LCL issues at times, which should wane later on, if the cells can maintain themselves. That, and good lord at the NAM for tomorrow... Does anyone lend any credence to the SPC SWODY1 thoughts that the hi-res convection allowing models may be overdoing it later today? Tomorrow, scary stuff for such a populated corridor in East Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/displayMap.cgi?keys=hrrr:&runtime=2012031815&plot_type=1ref_t5sfc&fcst=05&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t5&adtfn=1&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Does anyone lend any credence to the SPC SWODY1 thoughts that the hi-res convection allowing models may be overdoing it later today? Tomorrow, scary stuff for such a populated corridor in East Texas. The problem is, is that the fact that the hi-res models were showing rather limited convection was possibly one of the factors that caused them to be conservative on the outlook last night, and that now some of them are showing a potential whole other story... And I agree that Monday is beginning to look extremely dangerous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Does anyone lend any credence to the SPC SWODY1 thoughts that the hi-res convection allowing models may be overdoing it later today? Tomorrow, scary stuff for such a populated corridor in East Texas. Read the disco from earlier this morning into late last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Read the disco from earlier this morning into late last night. On here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Does anyone lend any credence to the SPC SWODY1 thoughts that the hi-res convection allowing models may be overdoing it later today? Tomorrow, scary stuff for such a populated corridor in East Texas. It is a tough call for SPC because coverage is a big question even down to the last minute. Many reasons including timing of the the trough, capping near the dryline, possible dry air issues impeding updraft development from the LCL-LFC, etc. Problem with this setup, given the incredible low level shear/helicity and steep low/mid level lapse rates is only a couple of these cells could produce long swaths of significant severe reports. It doesn't take much in terms of coverage. It would be nice to see some ensemble hi-res guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Latest HRRR initiates a cluster of intense supercells and tracks it right into the areas of highest parameters later this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 12Z ECMWF really backs off late afternoon initiation across the TX Panhandle and instead focuses on the OK Panhandle and western KS. Still shows a large cluster of activity along the surging prefrontal trough after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 It is a tough call for SPC because coverage is a big question even down to the last minute. Many reasons including timing of the the trough, capping near the dryline, possible dry air issues impeding updraft development from the LCL-LFC, etc. Problem with this setup, given the incredible low level shear/helicity and steep low/mid level lapse rates is only a couple of these cells could produce long swaths of significant severe reports. It doesn't take much in terms of coverage. It would be nice to see some ensemble hi-res guidance. I hadn't followed things too closely within the last day, but looked back at last night/early morning as you suggested, and lots of great stuff posted and certainly many valid points made w.r.t. rather conservative SPC outlooks. Thanks for filling me in. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF_avia/FCST/NARRE/web_site/html/conv.html Not hi-res, but still pretty high probability of convection in the highlighted threat area later today/this evening. And a cursory glance at tomorrow, with high CAPE (possibly underdone in modelling as has been typical in this heat wave), high-end shear parameters, slightly backed surface winds, mid 60s dewpoints leading to low LCLs, I'm a little surprised that, although 30% hatched is already there, SPC didn't go with a Mod Risk for SWODY2, also considering the large population of the highlighted area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Vis Satellite looking better... all of Texas panhandle should be in clear skies soon. Hopefully enough to break this cap later. Think we're heading north to Canadian from Wheeler... looks like the breaks are occurring a little earlier there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Latest HRRR initiates a cluster of intense supercells and tracks it right into the areas of highest parameters later this evening... Liking the idea of nicely rotating updrafts too. That is all with the first wave of convection too, as the HRRR lights up the dry line again around 04z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 And a cursory glance at tomorrow, with high CAPE (possibly underdone in modelling as has been typical in this heat wave), high-end shear parameters, slightly backed surface winds, mid 60s dewpoints leading to low LCLs, I'm a little surprised that, although 30% hatched is already there, SPC didn't go with a Mod Risk for SWODY2, also considering the large population of the highlighted area. This very much, and believe me, if that secondary sfc low develops as virtually all the models suggest, there's going to be more than just slight backing of the sfc winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 This very much, and believe me, if that secondary sfc low develops as virtually all the models suggest, there's going to be more than just slight backing of the sfc winds. A secondary low. Would that make a tornado outbreak much worse than if there was just one low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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