andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I, too, am beginning to think that if anything will happen, it will be in ctrl-srn TX. Models are painting the development of a development of a secondary low in that area along with a mini-dryline. The area near the "triple point" and on the edge of the steepest low-lvl lapse rates, in a corridor from Del Rio-San Antonio-Houston, looks somewhat interesting. Somewhat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Somewhat? I live in the affected area and really am not too impressed, yet... There are plenty of factors that can change between now and Monday. The system that will be influencing the region is just beginning to be fully sampled by the upper air data this evening. After yesterday's hail bust, I'm quite skeptical on the tornado potential. I do believe we will have widespread severe weather, but I'm being very conservative for now. Maybe I'll come around after seeing the 0Z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I live in the affected area and really am not too impressed, yet... There are plenty of factors that can change between now and Monday. The system that will be influencing the region is just beginning to be fully sampled by the upper air data this evening. After yesterday's hail bust, I'm quite skeptical on the tornado potential. I do believe we will have widespread severe weather, but I'm being very conservative for now. Maybe I'll come around after seeing the 0Z data. The 18z data really got me back on the bandwagon for monday. Really intrigued to see the 00z data. My gut is telling me that there actually will be secondary low development across central/northern texas especially if the trough does start to slightly go negative tilt. The 18z NAM shows a dryline with a very sharp drop off in dew points along the I35 corridor where initiation would occur. Also, both the 18z NAM and GFS are showing surface winds backed very well east of the dryline in the warm sector. For this to occur like the models are showing, there would need to be some kind of secondary low development. Take a look at the sounding i posted from Lampasas, TX a few posts earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 The 18z data really got me back on the bandwagon for monday. Really intrigued to see the 00z data. My gut is telling me that there actually will be secondary low development across central/northern texas especially if the trough does start to slightly go negative tilt. The 18z NAM shows a dryline with a very sharp drop off in dew points along the I35 corridor where initiation would occur. Also, both the 18z NAM and GFS are showing surface winds backed very well east of the dryline in the warm sector. For this to occur like the models are showing, there would need to be some kind of secondary low development. Take a look at the sounding i posted from Lampasas, TX a few posts earlier. Not necessarily, considering the strong height falls associated with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Not necessarily, considering the strong height falls associated with this system. actually yea, good point. how do you feel about the monday setup in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I posted my thoughts earlier near the top of the page. 00z NAM has initialized, let's see what we get here. Edit: Through 15 hrs pretty similar to 18z, perhaps a bit broader based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Somewhat? I'm going to refrain from being bullish since this setup is very sensitive to what happens Sunday night and how the kinematics evolve (the strength of the LLJ and the 700mb jet in that areawill have a huge impact on the hodographs, and models have been inconsistent in this area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I'm going to refrain from being bullish since this setup is very sensitive to what happens Sunday night and how the kinematics evolve (the strength of the LLJ and the 700mb jet in that areawill have a huge impact on the hodographs, and models have been inconsistent in this area). Fair enough. Sfc winds already starting to back by 18z in the primary areas for Sunday. Also note the higher dewpoints being much closer to the dryline than 18z across some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Those look like good bulk shear vectors: Lots of 0-3 km SRH by 03z, bulk shear vectors are still favorable for supercells, 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Fair enough. Sfc winds already starting to back by 18z in the primary areas for Sunday. Also note the higher dewpoints being much closer to the dryline than 18z across some areas. Maybe this run will convince everyone to take tomorrow seriously. With significant moistening of the boundary layer and backing of low-level winds, it looks downright ominous for the eastern Panhandles. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jim's figure of 5-10 tornadoes may well be eclipsed by 8pm tomorrow evening, or at least matched on the upper end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 There are some seriously nasty hodos by 03z, a bit of veer-back-veer, but with 500 mb shear vectors perpendicular to the dryline I don't see that affecting much... Some of the 0-3 km vectors on the hodographs I'm seeing are spectacular... Trough is really broad by this time too, which leads me to believe Monday may look more impressive too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Far eastern TX panhandle and Western OK looks to be the place to be tomorrow, LCL's are somewhat marginal but become more favorable toward evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Speaking of Far eastern TX Panhandle and West Oklahoma, here is the 0z NAM sounding for Canadian, Texas at 10pm tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 A lot of well known chasers are starting to freak about what is being shown on the 0z NAM for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Speaking of Far eastern TX Panhandle and West Oklahoma, here is the 0z NAM sounding for Canadian, Texas at 10pm tomorrow evening. Yeah, I think we got a problem here...holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 SPC has really tip-toed (to put it very lightly) around the tornado threat for Sunday and Monday. We'll see what happens with tomorrows outlook, but they might really play this one conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 A lot of well known chasers are starting to freak about what is being shown on the 0z NAM for tomorrow. In my opinion, this is looking like the best Panhandle chase day since 2007. The only thing that might rival it since then would be April 22, 2010, which was hampered by a rapid transition to linear mode. How quickly that happens tomorrow will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Maybe this run will convince everyone to take tomorrow seriously. With significant moistening of the boundary layer and backing of low-level winds, it looks downright ominous for the eastern Panhandles. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jim's figure of 5-10 tornadoes may well be eclipsed by 8pm tomorrow evening, or at least matched on the upper end. I agree with you with tomorrow's threat being considerably more significant based off the 0Z NAM. With the exception of the minor veer-back-veer profile between 700 and 400 millibars, everything I am looking at for tomorrow is suggesting a high-end threat for tornadoes in the Eastern Texas panhandle and Western Oklahoma. One thing I have noticed though is that the NAM has been killing all convection by 10 PM. I don't know what's up with that. The veer-back-veer issue doesn't look particularly significant off the 0Z NAM. We're talking about about 10 to 15 degrees difference in wind direction, so not a big concern at this point. With almost perfect hodographs and instability values in excess of 2,000 to 2,500 joules per kilogram tomorrow, my confidence level in a localized, but very significant tornado event has increased. Not only will there be tornado potential, the supercells will be producing massive hail. I've been chasing four years now and this is easily the best setup I've seen in the Texas Panhandle since 2008. IMO, this matches and perhaps exceeds the potential event on April 22, 2010. That being said, a saving grace is that much of the eastern Texas Panhandle is mainly rural farms. There are towns, but it's not a highly populated area. If the 0Z NAM verifies, I would not be surprised to see a significant tornado (obviously it has to hit something to be considered significant in a damage survey, but just exclude that thought). LCLs may be a minor problem initially, but the 0Z NAM seems to have a sweet spot near Shamrock, Texas. In my opinion, tomorrow has the biggest potential the Caprock has seen in years. EDIT: Looks like great minds think alike in terms of the potential, Brett! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Just west of Austin, 03z Monday evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Wow what did the Nam just do??? I do see a super cell just west of Dallas at 0z Tuesday. It looks like it want's to retrograde the eastern ridge back to the western OH Valley (at least at the surface) and keep bringing rain to our area, which is fine with me, we are set up to be the next TX when it comes to drought. Thoughts any one? This system is a quickly changing system.....I have no idea what to expect now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Just west of Austin, 03z Monday evening: is anyone else noticing secondary low development on the 00z NAM in Texas on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 NAM4 also supports a big uptick in the severe potential tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Judging by the NAM's solution, if the GFS holds serve (no real reason why it wouldn't), I think a moderate risk (probably with 10-15% sig-hatched tor) is very likely in the new Day 1, and then possibly a high if conditions further improve throughout the day tomorrow...some of the parameters just scream that kind of risk if the main mode remains supercells late into the evening. This is really the only reason I could see them holding off a high, that or concerns with LCL heights, but I think the impressive boundary layer moisture (and it now advancing right to the dryline as opposed to earlier runs of the NAM) should nullify that fairly quickly. Either way, this, to me, is the most significant threat I've seen for this area since perhaps March 28th, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 is anyone else noticing secondary low development on the 00z NAM in Texas on Monday? Yeah I noticed that too, trouble in all likelihood if that verifies, but I'm going to focus on Sunday since there appears to be a legitimate shot for a regional tornado outbreak in the western Plains/Panhandles (and not just weak ones either, these parameters support intense and potentially long-lived tornadic supercells). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 4 sounds from 18z tomorrow afternoon to 3z tomorrow night for Canadian, TX (HHF) can really see the low-level wind response to the the pressure falls as well as the LLJ kicking in after 0z creating scary amounts shear in the low levels. The veer-back-veer profile is most pronounced at 0z but it's nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Yeah I noticed that too, trouble in all likelihood if that verifies, but I'm going to focus on Sunday since there appears to be a legitimate shot for a regional tornado outbreak in the western Plains/Panhandles. i understand lol. i can't chase tomorrow unfortunately but i can monday. so that's why i'm more interested in monday. i can definitely see back to back high risks being a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 NAM4 @ 3z 0-3km SRH Isolated 750m/s+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Childress, TX...look out... Also I'm thinking areas like Abilene and Wichita Falls (both 100,000+ population) get into some of this, particularly the former, judging by that graphic. There's actually a few similarities here to 4/10/79, except shifted a bit further west, now that I look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 MLCAPE for the previous image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I haven't seen such instability and shear co-located at the same time in the Panhandles/Cap Rock in quite awhile. Those are potentially high risk caliber parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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