tornadotony Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 What you guys think this is in OK, big wind, or big couplet? Neither. Turbulent signature. I'd go with hail and/or beam superrefraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Also..another thing, upper level support will be increasing from the west as the upper jet streak on the southern end of the trough ejects eastward, as the line moves east of San Antonio, there is very little CIN, and still plenty of instability. This will be a timing issue though, whether the stronger upper/mid level support approaches from the west in time to help weaken the capping. If it does, I could see some problems for areas like Houston, Victoria and College Station later on in the overnight and early morning hours of Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Couplet still there on new scan. Now that might be a couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 What you guys think this is in OK, big wind, or big couplet? The storm pretty much looks like a squall line, but it could be a tornado. I guess they have justification for the warning, given the environment has so much shear and the INX and SRX see mesocyclones (sort of.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 A band of heavy rain-producing thunderstorms is moving into NW Arkansas and SW Missouri at this time. Occasional embedded mesocyclones will flare up periodically as the storms parade to the NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Possible couplets popping up everywhere in the line now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Possible couplets popping up everywhere in the line now. Holy crap, Marble City area looks dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 RT @wxprobrian KSAT-12 reporter Ryan Loyd just told us that people have been injured east of Devine, TX due to the strong storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Updated footage from yesterday's tornadoes... added is a fun 32x timelapse of our entire chase to the amazing cell. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Strong couplet just south of West Siloam Springs, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Well, SPC thought the bulk of today's storms would be linear with the moderate risk for wind and hail. That seems to be the case rather than discrete supercells. But I was very surprised at the unexpected EF3 in North Platte yesterday. Win some, lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0848 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR INTO EXTREME SWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 88... VALID 200148Z - 200245Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 88 CONTINUES. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. SOME THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO A PORTION OF EXTREME SWRN MO. THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO EXTREME NWRN AR THEN SSWWD THROUGH ERN OK AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE ERN OK WARM SECTOR TO BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LINE OF STORMS. WHILE THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL TORNADO THREAT...POTENTIAL STILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..DIAL.. 03/20/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Crazy the amount of little couplets throughout the line in OK/AR. Granted they go away and reform with every scan, but still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Is there any damaging winds with this line? I'm in Ft. Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 The cap has been the downfall of this system... Kinda weird talking about thermonuclear caps in March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 The cap has been the downfall of this system... Kinda weird talking about thermonuclear caps in March... this whole march has been screwy, so why wouldn't i believe a nutso cap. hate to see what things will be in the next month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 The cap has been the downfall of this system... Kinda weird talking about thermonuclear caps in March... It's not the cap so much as the forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Still could be significant severe overnight near LaGrange and College Station, even if just spin ups along the front/boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Nice cooling effect this storm is having. Strong cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 from Cantore's twitter ** BREAKING** REPORT of over 50 homes damaged or destroyed, no word of injuries – no deaths, and none critical. ...cont. - Law enforcement has shut down section of I-35 from 131-147 and assistance is being called in from other counties .....Reports from Medina county around Natalia and Devine, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 It's not the cap so much as the forcing. I think this setup really wasn't meant to be in the first place. With such a meridional trough, you're gonna pick up a hot MX EML, you're gonna pick up some mid-upper lvl moisture from the subtropics that will reduce insolation, and you're going to have linear storm modes. Each of these played some role in lessening the outcome from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottL Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Southern part of the line ( especially SA and vicinity) is barely moving. Is there going to be anything to move the line along or is going to crawl all night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Significant wind damage being reported in Muldrow,Alma,and Roland per local met. Watching new live right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Still could be significant severe overnight near LaGrange and College Station, even if just spin ups along the front/boundary. There are some monster hodographs across SE TX (Basically east of San Antonio) early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I think this setup really wasn't meant to be in the first place. With such a meridional trough, you're gonna pick up a hot MX EML, you're gonna pick up some mid-upper lvl moisture from the subtropics that will reduce insolation, and you're going to have linear storm modes. Each of these played some role in lessening the outcome from this system. I agree that these meridional troughs are often bad news for getting sig svr roughly east of I-35, and today's setup always looked like a huge mess with major mode issues. However, for yesterday's western Plains setup, I think that bad timing, downstream troughing along the east coast, and a few other details were larger culprits. Too many equally-meridional troughs have paid off in that area just in the past several years to write off similar setups in the future just based on that factor (not that you would, and I'm sure you were referring more to today as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Significant wind damage being reported in Muldrow,Alma,and Roland per local met. Watching new live right now. I wonder where the Roland damage is. Everything's fine at my place. It got pretty windy, though. Now we pretty much just have to worry about the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 From yesterday...but nice timelapse of one of the supercells in SW OK. Worth a view. http://vimeo.com/38811733 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Possible tornado in Elysian, MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I wonder where the Roland damage is. Everything's fine at my place. It got pretty windy, though. Now we pretty much just have to worry about the rain. Lots of trees and poles down in the Roland area. Muldrow got the worst. Hearing of building damage in Cedarville from a possible spinup. MULDROW-SEQUOYAH-OK "BARN BLOWN INTO HOUSE" ROLAND-SEQUOYAH-OK "POWER POLE AND TREES DOWN IN ROLAND" CEDARVILLE-CRAWFORD-AR "3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN AT AR HWY 220 EAST AND LUCIAN WOOD ROAD NEAR CEDARVILLE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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