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18-20 March 2012 severe prospects


tornadotony

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Also..another thing, upper level support will be increasing from the west as the upper jet streak on the southern end of the trough ejects eastward, as the line moves east of San Antonio, there is very little CIN, and still plenty of instability. This will be a timing issue though, whether the stronger upper/mid level support approaches from the west in time to help weaken the capping. If it does, I could see some problems for areas like Houston, Victoria and College Station later on in the overnight and early morning hours of Tuesday.

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What you guys think this is in OK, big wind, or big couplet?

The storm pretty much looks like a squall line, but it could be a tornado. I guess they have justification for the warning, given the environment has so much shear and the INX and SRX see mesocyclones (sort of.)

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0848 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR INTO EXTREME SWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 88...

VALID 200148Z - 200245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 88 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THIS

EVENING FROM ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. SOME THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP

INTO A PORTION OF EXTREME SWRN MO.

THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM

CNTRL MO SWWD INTO EXTREME NWRN AR THEN SSWWD THROUGH ERN OK AND IS

MOVING SLOWLY EWD. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE DISCRETE

SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE ERN OK WARM SECTOR TO BE OVERTAKEN

BY THE LINE OF STORMS. WHILE THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN

OVERALL TORNADO THREAT...POTENTIAL STILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING

WIND GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012

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from Cantore's twitter

** BREAKING** REPORT of over 50 homes damaged or destroyed, no word of injuries – no deaths, and none critical.

...cont. - Law enforcement has shut down section of I-35 from 131-147 and assistance is being called in from other counties

.....Reports from Medina county around Natalia and Devine, TX

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It's not the cap so much as the forcing.

I think this setup really wasn't meant to be in the first place. With such a meridional trough, you're gonna pick up a hot MX EML, you're gonna pick up some mid-upper lvl moisture from the subtropics that will reduce insolation, and you're going to have linear storm modes. Each of these played some role in lessening the outcome from this system.

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I think this setup really wasn't meant to be in the first place. With such a meridional trough, you're gonna pick up a hot MX EML, you're gonna pick up some mid-upper lvl moisture from the subtropics that will reduce insolation, and you're going to have linear storm modes. Each of these played some role in lessening the outcome from this system.

I agree that these meridional troughs are often bad news for getting sig svr roughly east of I-35, and today's setup always looked like a huge mess with major mode issues. However, for yesterday's western Plains setup, I think that bad timing, downstream troughing along the east coast, and a few other details were larger culprits. Too many equally-meridional troughs have paid off in that area just in the past several years to write off similar setups in the future just based on that factor (not that you would, and I'm sure you were referring more to today as well).

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Significant wind damage being reported in Muldrow,Alma,and Roland per local met. Watching new live right now.

I wonder where the Roland damage is. Everything's fine at my place. It got pretty windy, though. Now we pretty much just have to worry about the rain.

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I wonder where the Roland damage is. Everything's fine at my place. It got pretty windy, though. Now we pretty much just have to worry about the rain.

Lots of trees and poles down in the Roland area. Muldrow got the worst. Hearing of building damage in Cedarville from a possible spinup.

MULDROW-SEQUOYAH-OK "BARN BLOWN INTO HOUSE"

ROLAND-SEQUOYAH-OK "POWER POLE AND TREES DOWN IN ROLAND"

CEDARVILLE-CRAWFORD-AR "3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN AT AR HWY 220 EAST AND LUCIAN WOOD ROAD NEAR CEDARVILLE."

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