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18-20 March 2012 severe prospects


tornadotony

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SPC update, gonna be a long night:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0822 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 85...87...89...

VALID 200122Z - 200215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH

85...87...89...CONTINUES.

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF

SCNTRL TX INCLUDING THE TX HILL COUNTRY AREA THIS EVENING. AT LEAST

TWO TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WERE IN PROGRESS AS OF 0130Z OVER SCNTRL TX

INCLUDING ONE MOVING INTO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA.

STORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SWRN PORTION OF

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SCNTRL TX WEST OF THE SAN ANTONIO

AREA. A COUPLE OF OTHER DISCRETE AND LIKELY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE

DEVELOPED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY INCLUDING ONE IN PROXIMITY TO SAN

ANTONIO. THESE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AS THEY BEGIN TO INTERACT

WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE OVER SCNTRL TX WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 3000

J/KG AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS EXIST. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS

CATCHING UP WITH WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR VERY LARGE

HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28720037 29680013 31079797 32059718 33849566 32959533

30959650 28319919 28720037

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXC013-029-325-200200-

/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120320T0200Z/

MEDINA TX-BEXAR TX-ATASCOSA TX-

833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EXTREME

NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR AND EAST CENTRAL MEDINA

COUNTIES...

AT 827 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A DAMAGING

TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST

OF CASTROVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS

PRODUCED DAMAGE NEAR I-35 AT NATALIA AT 806 PM.

THE TORNADO WILL REACH MIDWAY BY 835 PM...AND NEAR VON ARMY...

MACONA AND MANGUS CORNER ALONG LOOP 1604 BY 845 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS

IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE AND LACKLAND AFB. LARGE HAIL UP TO

GOLFBALL SIZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

TORNADO TRACK.

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