SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 644 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WESTERN LATIMER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 641 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF HIGGINS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... HIGGINS...DAMON...WILBURTON...ROBBERS CAVE STATE PARK...QUINTON AND KINTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Nothing at all yet. Just showing normal news. Nothing about the weather. Ok, thanks. If you could, lemme know when they do, and I'll start checking online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 here we go. Tornado warnings to my west in Eastern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Anyone use MichiganWX with their GR? I can't get the RUC placefiles to show up, wondering if it's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 San Antonio TOR warning dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavyMatt Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 KSAT just had their weather update - no mention of the TOR warned cell heading for SA. Saying he sees no rotation (in any of the storms) and only expects, worst case, a fast-moving EF0. I don't like the KSAT weatherman. EDIT: Well there ya go...warning dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 If that cell southwest of S. Antonio can't produce a tornado I will have lost faith in all composite indices and SR Helicity parameters LOL. Everything is primed down there! Checking mesoanalysis, relatively weak 850mb flow may be the limiting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Parts of OK/AR just upgraded to a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86... VALID 192332Z - 200030Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86 CONTINUES. BASED ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...ERN OK INTO NWRN AR PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH. SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING OVER ERN OK WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. HODOGRAPHS ARE VERY LARGE IN THIS REGION ALONG LLJ AXIS AND SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DISCRETE MODE WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LINE AND SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. WW 88 TORNADO AR OK 192355Z - 200500Z AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 35NNE FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/ - 40S MLC/MCALESTER OK/ DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EASTERN OK...WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE ARE PRESENT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO A TORNADO WATCH FOR THIS REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Checking mesoanalysis, relatively weak 850mb flow may be the limiting factor. Can't imagine that lasts too long, already have a lot of warm sector Cu showing up east of KEWX showing the LLJ doing its work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Anyone use MichiganWX with their GR? I can't get the RUC placefiles to show up, wondering if it's just me. The website has some major issues... Althoug, Allisonhouse isn't working either which is very odd. Might have to do with the transition to the RAP or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 850 winds are weak near the cells in STX, but any cell that can develop ahead of the line in OK could be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Cell north of the SA cell, is getting it's act together fast. 100 kt G2G couplet at 4400 feet AGL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 KSAT just had their weather update - no mention of the TOR warned cell heading for SA. Saying he sees no rotation (in any of the storms) and only expects, worst case, a fast-moving EF0. well, if it's only an EF0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavyMatt Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 well, if it's only an EF0 It caught me off guard after seeing all the talk here and elsewhere of the possibility of strong tornados. If that is the case, I'd expect him to put that word out so people could be better prepared. He really appeared to downplay how bad some of the storms could potentially be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 It caught me off guard after seeing all the talk here and elsewhere of the possibility of strong tornados. If that is the case, I'd expect him to put that word out so people could be better prepared. He really appeared to downplay how bad some of the storms could potentially be. With all the talk about warning response, that's just not the message we want to be sending. Never mind the fact that any tornado is potentially deadly, "only" an EF0 can quickly turn into something more unexpectedly. Really does surprise me to hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Nothing is really holding together well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I know the focus was down south, but I thought we had a good chance here in the MSP metro area, I really didn't want to say I disagreed with the SPC, but I think they blew it here. All short range models were showing cape values working in from the SE, while the frontal boundary was working in from the west. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 The HRRR was showing this all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Best tornado chances in the short-term might actually be in ern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I know the focus was down south, but I thought we had a good chance here in the MSP metro area, I really didn't want to say I disagreed with the SPC, but I think they blew it here. All short range models were showing cape values working in from the SE, while the frontal boundary was working in from the west. Oh well don't count your chickens before they hatch. you did see the warning for hennipin county, right? it'll be plowing thru downtown minny in ~ 10-15 mins or so, then the line should make it to my part of st paul in ~20-25 mins. let's see how this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Best tornado chances in the short-term might actually be in ern OK. The new SPC sig. tor. probability parameter agrees, strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 A lot of cells starting to rotate in OK now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 50 knot 850 jet nosing into eastern OK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Actually, San Antonio is probably in big trouble. Those storms are getting their acts together fast and moving from a region of higher LCLs to lower LCLs. The parameters are through the roof and I venture something icky might be about to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Actually, San Antonio is probably in big trouble. Those storms are getting their acts together fast and moving from a region of higher LCLs to lower LCLs. The parameters are through the roof and I venture something icky might be about to happen. That thing needs a tornado warning ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 don't count your chickens before they hatch. you did see the warning for hennipin county, right? it'll be plowing thru downtown minny in ~ 10-15 mins or so, then the line should make it to my part of st paul in ~20-25 mins. let's see how this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Actually, San Antonio is probably in big trouble. Those storms are getting their acts together fast and moving from a region of higher LCLs to lower LCLs. The parameters are through the roof and I venture something icky might be about to happen. Does this fall under the "icky" category? (This needs a tornado warning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Nothing is really holding together well. ...except everything that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Actually, San Antonio is probably in big trouble. Those storms are getting their acts together fast and moving from a region of higher LCLs to lower LCLs. The parameters are through the roof and I venture something icky might be about to happen. Very tight couplet at 8000 ft. Really tightened up this last scan too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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