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18-20 March 2012 severe prospects


tornadotony

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

644 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

WESTERN LATIMER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 641 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF HIGGINS...MOVING NORTH AT 45

MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...

HIGGINS...DAMON...WILBURTON...ROBBERS CAVE STATE PARK...QUINTON AND

KINTA.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0632 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...

VALID 192332Z - 200030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86

CONTINUES.

BASED ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...ERN OK INTO NWRN AR PORTION OF

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO

WATCH.

SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING OVER ERN OK WHERE BOUNDARY

LAYER WARMING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. HODOGRAPHS ARE

VERY LARGE IN THIS REGION ALONG LLJ AXIS AND SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL

MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN

THE DISCRETE MODE WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LINE AND SIZE

OF HODOGRAPHS...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH AN

ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.

WW 88 TORNADO AR OK 192355Z - 200500Z

AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

35NNE FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/ - 40S MLC/MCALESTER OK/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING IN THE WARM

SECTOR ACROSS EASTERN OK...WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND

SUFFICIENT CAPE ARE PRESENT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE ONGOING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO A TORNADO WATCH FOR THIS REGION.

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well, if it's only an EF0

It caught me off guard after seeing all the talk here and elsewhere of the possibility of strong tornados. If that is the case, I'd expect him to put that word out so people could be better prepared. He really appeared to downplay how bad some of the storms could potentially be.

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It caught me off guard after seeing all the talk here and elsewhere of the possibility of strong tornados. If that is the case, I'd expect him to put that word out so people could be better prepared. He really appeared to downplay how bad some of the storms could potentially be.

With all the talk about warning response, that's just not the message we want to be sending. Never mind the fact that any tornado is potentially deadly, "only" an EF0 can quickly turn into something more unexpectedly. Really does surprise me to hear that.

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I know the focus was down south, but I thought we had a good chance here in the MSP metro area, I really didn't want to say I disagreed with the SPC, but I think they blew it here. All short range models were showing cape values working in from the SE, while the frontal boundary was working in from the west. Oh well

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I know the focus was down south, but I thought we had a good chance here in the MSP metro area, I really didn't want to say I disagreed with the SPC, but I think they blew it here. All short range models were showing cape values working in from the SE, while the frontal boundary was working in from the west. Oh well

don't count your chickens before they hatch. you did see the warning for hennipin county, right? it'll be plowing thru downtown minny in ~ 10-15 mins or so, then the line should make it to my part of st paul in ~20-25 mins. let's see how this pans out.

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Actually, San Antonio is probably in big trouble. Those storms are getting their acts together fast and moving from a region of higher LCLs to lower LCLs. The parameters are through the roof and I venture something icky might be about to happen.

That thing needs a tornado warning ASAP.

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Actually, San Antonio is probably in big trouble. Those storms are getting their acts together fast and moving from a region of higher LCLs to lower LCLs. The parameters are through the roof and I venture something icky might be about to happen.

Does this fall under the "icky" category?

(This needs a tornado warning)

TX6.png

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Actually, San Antonio is probably in big trouble. Those storms are getting their acts together fast and moving from a region of higher LCLs to lower LCLs. The parameters are through the roof and I venture something icky might be about to happen.

Very tight couplet at 8000 ft. Really tightened up this last scan too.

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