Buckeye05 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Not impressed by radar presentation. Pretty messy besides a few strong clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I'm becoming concerned that the OFB currently west of I-35 will continue to propagate east, being assisted by convection forming behind it. If that ends up being the case, say goodbye to any tornado potential today... I think the biggest concern is that all the storms are blowing up behind the OFB, and they're having a hard time getting into the warm sector because storm motions are so meridional. Meanwhile, in the warm sector, storms are not forming because of a near-thermonuclear cap (700mb temps > 7C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Mean hook on the supercell in South-Central TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 big time supercell well south right on the boundary north of Del Rio, TX. 75 dBZ core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Goes with my thinking that the greatest supercell potential will be in the southern end of the moderate risk area, where the shear vectors will be much more favorable for discrete convection throughout the evening into the overnight. The secondary surface low developing down there will also strongly back the sfc winds. Edit: Just took a hard right turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 It's actually two seperate supercells/updrafts with the northern one now with an impressive couplet and tor warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 SPC RUC analysis does show decreasing CINH in the warm sector. Nothing obvious low level as a trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 And this is in line with many parameters and the sig tor maxima forecast for east of that region later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Much better view of the dual-supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Note the features on this map that Srain posted in the TX/LA obs. thread, as those powerful upper jet streaks nose into the area later, large scale upper support ahead of the front is going to increase dramatically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 There are cells firing south of the supercells too, towards the Mexican border, I think San Antonio may have problems later on, if the cells can maintain themselves. Good move, David. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkylerP Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Waiting for it to rain. Looks like it will cool down to the 60s in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The supercells are moving into an area of better low and mid level helicity to the east and are tail end charleys so backed se inflow should be maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 On a little history note, Rocksprings, TX was wiped out on April 12th, 1927 by a violent tornado (Likely F5)...destroyed all but 12 buildings at the time out of 247. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I notice a 998 mb surface feature located in old Mexico south of the Big Bend. Is that the possible development of a secondary that has been mentioned in earlier discussions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I notice a 998 mb surface feature located in old Mexico south of the Big Bend. Is that the possible development of a secondary that has been mentioned in earlier discussions? Yes. It's deeper than I expected too... Those dual cells in S TX look like they are about to merge into one large cell, very intense mid-level meso on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Very large and potentially damaging hail approaching highway 287 Near or south of Bridgeport TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Even that cell in S TX has been undercut...idk...just not feeling this. I was earlier, but this gust front and the lack of activity along/east of 35 is not encouraging for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 322 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 TXC435-192045- /O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120319T2045Z/ SUTTON TX- 322 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SUTTON COUNTY... AT 321 PM CDT... THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US-277 AND RANCH ROAD 189...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF SONORA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. HAIL DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS... OVERTURNED VEHICLES... DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME MAY BE UPROOTED... DAMAGE TO HOMES...MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES... DENTED VEHICLES... MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE... MAY BREAK WINDOWS ON VEHICLES AND HOMES... MAY INJURE PEOPLE...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK LEFT UNPROTECTED... DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS... LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND... THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SUTTON COUNTY. I guess this is an example of the enhanced wording that some offices are starting to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Even that cell in S TX has been undercut...idk...just not feeling this. I was earlier, but this gust front and the lack of activity along/east of 35 is not encouraging for tornadoes. Yeah, I'm beginning to agree with this, we could be looking at a tornadic bust thanks to that outflow boundary. I think Jim's prediction of 5-10 tornadoes for the entire event is looking pretty good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 341 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SUTTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 335 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF US-277 AND RANCH ROAD 189...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF SONORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS... NUMEROUS VEHICLE DENTS... MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE... SOME EXPOSED HOME AND VEHICLE WINDOWS WILL CRACK OR BREAK... INJURY TO UNPROTECTED PEOPLE AND ANIMALS... SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED... SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE... POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 2596 AND RANCH ROAD 864 BY 410 PM CDT... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 399 AND 425. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Even that cell in S TX has been undercut...idk...just not feeling this. I was earlier, but this gust front and the lack of activity along/east of 35 is not encouraging for tornadoes. It looks pretty ugly right now. We'll see if that secondary low in Mexico will be able to hold up that outflow boundary as winds respond on the southern end of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 TOR warning dropped for south cell. Just not feeling it today. Could be a bust, like most Texas setups it seems like with the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The TOR for the supercell moving towards Junction TX has expired, but the storm continues to have some rotation and perhaps isn't finished yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Although, we'll have to see if the incoming dynamic support from those upper jet streaks in that image above on the page has any effect on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 The TOR for the supercell moving towards Junction TX has expired, but the storm continues to have some rotation and perhaps isn't finished yet. Oh it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The TOR for the supercell moving towards Junction TX has expired, but the storm continues to have some rotation and perhaps isn't finished yet. It got undercut by the outflow boundary, I think it is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 If you loop KDFX right now, I think you can detect a subtle boundary moving through. There's a few showers around down there that look like they're popping up in response to that boundary. If any of them can move northeast and strengthen into decent updrafts, they'll reach an area of >250 0-1km SRH north of San Antonio, which might get interesting. Big "if" though. Keep an eye on the Junction, TX storm too. It still has some weak rotation and it's also moving into an area of enhanced low-level helicity. Until now, it's had almost none to work with. Edit to add: New TOR on that cell, although it looks even less impressive now than it did on the previous scan, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 meanwhile up north... http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0291.html and the sfc obs up here... low to mid 70's up on the trans-canada highway from brandon to thunder bay in late march? severe hail possible in ND and maybe even southern MB/nw ON? could be an interesting night up here as well, depending on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 We currently have something that would cause a bust in what would normally be an good environment for tornados and that is an outflow boundary thats causes the air in front to become cooled near it, and there seems to be a cap in the warm sector which is also an inhibitant, but later on could be a different story when the low moves out of Mexico and backs the winds some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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