Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I believe FWD will be launching a special. DRT as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Quick point, it looks like the southern end of the line is becoming more discrete in terms of its convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I don't like where that supercell in NE OK would be heading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Don't see 50% contours very often with this product... I can think of a few days it has happened in the past couple of years, and they've been pretty big days. Seeing these kinds of numbers has got me a little worried about the southern parts of the risk area. Tons of supercell potential it seems (talking around KSAT and south). This area has looked the best for supercells for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I don't like where that supercell in NE OK would be heading... haha Not sure I believe that though. There's a large area of rain over Kansas and N OK. It doesn't look like it's going anywhere and it's stabilized a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 haha Not sure I believe that though. There's a large area of rain over Kansas and N OK. It doesn't look like it's going anywhere and it's stabilized a large area. SE OK is prime though once the forcing gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Seeing these kinds of numbers has got me a little worried about the southern parts of the risk area. Tons of supercell potential it seems (talking around KSAT and south). This area has looked the best for supercells for a while now. Yeah, shear vectors here will be more perpendicular to the boundary and favorable for discrete convection, although currently that cell near Eastland is beginning to catch my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 pretty cool seeing the upper level jet streak on vis over southwest TX/Mexico igniting new storms on and behind the boundary, going to be interesting if something discrete can go up ahead of everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Yeah, shear vectors here will be more perpendicular to the boundary and favorable for discrete convection, although currently that cell near Eastland is beginning to catch my attention. The Dyess AFB radar shows a massive gust front emanating from that line, though, so that cell doesn't really stand a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The Dyess AFB radar shows a massive gust front emanating from that line, though, so that cell doesn't really stand a chance. Yeah, now that you mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Yeah, shear vectors here will be more perpendicular to the boundary and favorable for discrete convection, although currently that cell near Eastland is beginning to catch my attention. NSSL-WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The Dyess AFB radar shows a massive gust front emanating from that line, though, so that cell doesn't really stand a chance. 'getting impressive core and now svr warned but can't get away from the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 That is a monster updraft... (on the NSSL WRF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191915Z - 192045Z MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH A THREAT WOULD INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES. CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WOULD LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE. EXTENSIVE COLD POOL PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...WITH PERIPHERAL/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHEAST OK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX IN VICINITY OF SHERMAN/MINERAL WELLS/BROWNWOOD AS OF 19Z. THE TX PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH SOME RECENT UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION EVIDENT PER RADAR/SATELLITE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE BROWNWOOD/STEPHENVILLE TX AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THE 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH WAS INDICATIVE OF SEVERAL DEGREES C OF WARMING AND ADDITIONAL CAPPING ALOFT /AROUND AND ABOVE 800 MB/ SINCE THIS MORNING...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT ABATING STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE COLD POOL MAY FAVOR STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...OTHER STORMS HAVE ALSO INCREASED RECENTLY BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION TX...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TIED TO A NORTHEAST-SURGING JET STREAK ALOFT/INCREASING DEEP ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX. ..GUYER.. 03/19/2012 That capping part could be a bad thing...may limit a faster progression to linear mode. Also note the H5 wind vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 ' getting impressive core and now svr warned but can't get away from the cold air. "V" shape to the OFB out ahead of it, so it's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 65dbz on basic reflectivity on the cell near Ranger. Strong rotation on the cell, although it is at a fair distance from the FWD radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 That thing is heading in a bad direction if it does manage to shunt the outflow. Definitely looks like it is trying to develop a mid-level meso, per velocity scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 229 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 /129 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/ ..PRELIMINARY TORNADO RATING OF EF3 IN NORTH PLATTE A STORM SURVEY OF LAST NIGHTS NORTH PLATTE TORNADO IS BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. BASED ON THE DAMAGE OBSERVED SO FAR...A PRELIMINARY DAMAGE RATING OF EF3...OR WINDS BETWEEN 136 MPH AND 165 MPH...HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE TORNADO. THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF DAMAGE HAS BEEN TO RESIDENCES ALONG WEST FRONT STREET ALONG WITH MANGLED POWERLINE TRUSSES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF NORTH PLATTE. IN ADDITION...THE NWS HAS RECEIVED REPORTS OF FOUR INJURIES SUSTAINED IN THE TORNADO. A FULL STORM REPORT WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN THE DAMAGE SURVEY IS COMPLETED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Red box coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Tornado watch just issued for Texas until 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Are discrete supercells supposed to fire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Tornado Watch just issued for central Texas until 10pm cdt. 2.5" hail and 70mph straight-line wind the other hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 put out by Thompson.. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 85 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SHERMAN TEXAS TO 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS DRIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL TX...PARTIALLY AIDED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX EJECTING NEWD OVER W TX. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT E OF THE BOUNDARY...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...ANY OF THE STORMS ROOTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 12z NAM sounding for Fort Worth, Texas, valid at 7pm cdt this evening. Definitely an explosive situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Does anyone see the TDS now on the Palo Pinto storm? It's had rotation for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Here is the special 18z Sounding done in Fort Worth, TX today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I'm becoming concerned that the OFB currently west of I-35 will continue to propagate east, being assisted by convection forming behind it. If that ends up being the case, say goodbye to any tornado potential today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkylerP Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Squall line is just now (it's taken forever since I posted about it orginally!) entering my county - Erath. This thing is slow. By the way, what's causing this to move along at a snail's pace? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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