SluggerWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Not only is that a 50 area, but that is a very sizable 50 area...sheesh. Tony - what product is this? I see it on here often, and I was wondering where I go to pull it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Quite a long duration that the 50 contour is in play too... Here are f18hr and f21hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Worrisome to see such parameters for the San Antonio to Austin to Killeen Metro Areas (I-35 Corridor). The Moderate Risk is warranted and certainly has the full attention of the folks down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Tony - what product is this? I see it on here often, and I was wondering where I go to pull it? This is significant tornado ingredients, and it is a percent chance of a significant tornado using probabilities of reaching CAPE, mixed layer LCL, 0-1 km helicity, 0-6 km shear, and convective precip thresholds. You can get it at the SPC Forecast Tools link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I always like to preach the trend on some of those SREF products too. And there was a noticeable increase from the 03z to 09z runs. Both valid at 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 1430Z...a lot of breaks in the clouds obsevered this morning across Central/SE Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 That's also a very populated area inside that 50% contour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Might wanna check out the storm here in Western Arkansas "This storm in Logan and Scott counties is also developing rotation. It would be a wise idea to get to a safe place in Paris, Blue Mountian, Magazine and Booneville as a precaution." http://www.facebook.com/joekfsm new md up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 1430Z...a lot of breaks in the clouds obsevered this morning across Central/SE Texas... Definitely less in the way of cloud debris than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkylerP Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 There seems to be a squall line fixing to come in from the west. I wonder (read: hope) if that has some kind of stabilizing effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Lightning strike hit OU PRIME just E of the National Weather Center this morning. http://www.facebook....430373117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 What a crazy night. Both Cory and I are ok...we are at work. He was on shift and I was called in for OT before it hit the fan. The tor hit a couple miles from my place. Nothing like destruction to pad the wallet. :/ (I work in emergency services, I'm allowed to be snarky about that.) Do you know if the tweets about the TV station getting hit were true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Also, it's not really a surprise, but the driving yesterday by chasers on the Mangum storm was the worst I've seen. What a circus out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 There seems to be a squall line fixing to come in from the west. I wonder (read: hope) if that has some kind of stabilizing effect. That squall line has moved 20 miles in a matter of hours, it won't stabilize the risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Low level southerly jet has increased across SE TX the past couple of hours. Most locations are now gusting near or above 40 mph and skies are partly cloudy across the Moderate Risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 SPC's new outlook stays with the same probs, and mentions mostly linear mode? Am I missing something here? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Parked Semi Truck vs. Tornado in North Platte last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Check out picture 31... just a fireplace? http://nptelegraph.mycapture.com/mycapture/enlarge.asp?image=40825763&event=1435371&CategoryID=73342 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS....THE ARKLATEX REGION AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND AN EXTENSIVE AND JUST AS ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN 1/3RD OF NORTH AMERICA. BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE ANOMALIES WILL EXIST ANOTHER ANOMALY...HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR BEING TRANSPORTED NWD FROM THE SUB-TROPICS ACROSS THE NWRN GULF COAST AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE BLOCKING...EVOLVING DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO TAKE FORM IN THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MAKE ONLY VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS THIS PERIOD. AS ALLUDED IN PREVIOUS DY2 OUTLOOK...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THROUGH EARLY WED. ...SERN TX/ARKLATEX TO OZARKS... LIFT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOWLY ADVANCING DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH AN UNUSUALLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN ORGANIZED LINEAR BANDS..AND OCCASIONAL LARGER CLUSTERS...ACROSS ERN TX THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WWD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST MCS SIGNAL INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGESTING THE CORRIDOR FOR GREATEST TSTM POTENTIAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS ERN OK TO SWRN AR. ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 1) THE SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND 2) DEEP-LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THE LINEAR MCS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SERN TX AND ERN OK...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EAST ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH LIFT ESSENTIALLY FOCUSED NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...OVERALL STORM EVOLUTION AND SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN BOTH ERN AND NRN EXTENT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HINTS AS SMALLER SCALE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AMIDST THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES REVEAL SUBSTANTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AND LOW LFC LIKELY WITHIN THE SLGT RISK CORRIDOR...THIS SUGGESTS THAT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES SEEM POSSIBLE. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH REPEAT/TRAINING CONVECTION OF THIS NATURE...STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND CAPE/INSTABILITY VARIATIONS INTRODUCE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR A STRONG TORNADO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ATTEMPTING TO HIGHLIGHT A GREATER RISK AT THIS TIME IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVE ACCURATE. WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY TORNADO AREA MAY BE INCLUDED IN AN UPCOMING DY1 OUTLOOK. ...TX PNHDL/SWRN OK/NWRN TX... AS THE LARGER SYSTEM BECOME OCCLUDED AND COLD CORE PIVOTS ACROSS NRN TX AND OK COINCIDENT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 SPC's new outlook stays with the same probs, and mentions mostly linear mode? Am I missing something here? Serious question. I don't get it...parameters have only gotten more impressive since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 SPC's new outlook stays with the same probs, and mentions mostly linear mode? Am I missing something here? Serious question. Shear vectors progged to be more parallel with the boundary and deep shear magnitudes are borderline for supercells over most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Parked Semi Truck vs. Tornado in North Platte last night **EDIT... on the highway...not parked... This semi is in three pieces after being thrown from the interstate in last night's storm. @1011_News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I'm sure not going to question SPC after their impressive handling of yesterday, when so many (including me) doubted them. Even aside from that, I'm struggling to see how coverage of tornado reports is likely to justify a more aggressive outlook, given the convective mode issues. I can maybe see making the case for hatching parts of the 10% area given low-level shear, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Shear vectors progged to be more parallel with the boundary and deep shear magnitudes are borderline for supercells over most of the area. I see the 14z HRRR run breaks out a significant number of prefrontal cells. Those would be the ones with the greatest likelihood to stay discrete based on progged shear vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Shear vectors progged to be more parallel with the boundary and shear magnitudes not as favorable over most of the area either. We had discrete tornadic supercells in shear vectors/magnitude similar to this in Nebraska yesterday night. Sure the storm coverage was less than is expected today, but I would have to think that with increasing large scale ascent and plenty of instability well out ahead of the front, that we'll see discrete supercells as the dominant mode somewhere today, over how large an area that may be, well that's the big question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 It has been pretty sunny here in far Eastern OK, Western AR for about a hour. 65 dewpoint currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Anyone know if there are 18Z RAOB launches scheduled today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 A viewer sent this photo of a wall cloud from the morning storms. This was just east of here in Ozark. http://www.facebook.com/5news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Anyone know if there are 18Z RAOB launches scheduled today? I believe FWD will be launching a special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 We had discrete tornadic supercells in shear vectors/magnitude similar to this in Nebraska yesterday night. Sure the storm coverage was less than is expected today, but I would have to think that with increasing large scale ascent and plenty of instability well out ahead of the front, that we'll see discrete supercells as the dominant mode somewhere today, over how large an area that may be, well that's the big question... Well if you have stronger/deeper forcing and/or it's closer to the boundary then linear will be more prevalent. Also if the CIN is lower than linear is more favored. I was busy yesterday and didn't really pay attention so I'm not sure if they are forecasted to form closer to the boundary today than yesterday. From what you said it sounds like today has stronger forcing involved than yesterday. And just a quick scan it appears CIN may be a little lower today also. You know how this stuff is all conditional, rarely is there a magic bullet that answers everything haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.