baroclinic_instability Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Here is a shot of one of the first supercells passing off to our west that I took with my phone. Had a gorgeous structure...late evening sun made for a number of amazing views this evening before it hit the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkylerP Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Moderate risk for Monday (later today) per the SPC. Can't seem to find the graphic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Mod risk Texas 45% wind, 10% tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 45/30/10 wind/hail/tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Looks like it might be a wild day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Looks like it might be a wild day. As a chaser, that would normally excite me. However, being my local turf and coverage area, this is really starting to freak me out. If that is right, we'll be dealing with multiple high-impact events. Don't even get me started on the flooding for tomorrow night! Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkylerP Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 As a chaser, that would normally excite me. However, being my local turf and coverage area, this is really starting to freak me out. If that is right, we'll be dealing with multiple high-impact events. Don't even get me started on the flooding for tomorrow night! Ugh... Yeah, I understand David. I live in Erath county and am not looking forward to this at all. I find I appreciate severe weather when it isn't near me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 As a chaser, that would normally excite me. However, being my local turf and coverage area, this is really starting to freak me out. If that is right, we'll be dealing with multiple high-impact events. Don't even get me started on the flooding for tomorrow night! Ugh... Well, be careful since the ditches will probably be full of water this time. It's an interesting setup, that's for sure, there would probably be multiple rounds of severe weather over a wide area if it develops like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 As a chaser, that would normally excite me. However, being my local turf and coverage area, this is really starting to freak me out. If that is right, we'll be dealing with multiple high-impact events. Don't even get me started on the flooding for tomorrow night! Ugh... If we get those discrete supercells in S TX moving into the parameters I'm seeing on the models...my lord...and I'm a bit surprised that MDT risk isn't extended towards Houston further although I'm glad they finally put stronger wording on the tornado threat. This...is scary: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Well, be careful since the ditches will probably be full of water this time. It's an interesting setup, that's for sure, there would probably be multiple rounds of severe weather over a wide area if it develops like that. So that was on the live stream, eh? Yeah, that was my little incident for the chase. Oh, that and the supercell eating my cell phone. All I say to the ditch incident is that there better be some good video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 For every frame from 12 hrs to 51 hrs on the 21z SREF, there is at least a 20 STI indicator somewhere in Texas. 39 straight hours...jesus. I'm also a tad surprised that they didn't mention anything about possible discrete cells evolving ahead of the line in the overnight hours, although that will probably be handled by later outlooks, because there is a powder keg of an environment down there by late Monday and early Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Looks like it might be a wild day. Busy pretty far North too. Could really be a banner day tomorrow if this were to even remotely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Busy pretty far North too. Could really be a banner day tomorrow if this were to even remotely verify. Lots of major population centers look to be under the gun tomorrow, including a couple of the biggest cities/metropolis's in the United States. Also, that line in West Texas is pulling north pretty quickly, when I loop the radar, just means less convective junk in the warm sector for tomorrow... Here's the discussion from the outlook, btw: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN TX INTO FAR SERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AN EXPANSIVE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH MERIDIONAL STYLE FLOW REGIME. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX INTO MN AND WI. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WRN/CNTRL OK INTO WRN N TX EARLY MON...BUT SHOULD STALL ACROSS CNTRL TX. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CENTERED OVER THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM CNTRL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OH/PA/WV...WITH ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND POSSIBLE FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS. ...TX INTO OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION... A COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE DAY WILL UNFOLD ON MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING IN RELATION TO WHERE A SQUALL LINE...NOW OVER WRN TX...WILL BE LOCATED...AND HOW MUCH COLD POOL AND STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL BE OVER W CNTRL OK INTO WRN N TX AT 12Z...WITH SRN END NEAR I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REJUVENATE OVER ERN OK/NERN TX WITH A STRONG 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THAT AREA. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS SAME GENERAL VICINITY...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUELED BY WARM ADVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. SHEAR WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TX. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA SHOULD BE S OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY...AND ON THE INTERFACE OF STRONG HEATING PROGGED OVER WRN/W CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...BUT WILL DEFER POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT LIKELY RESULTING IN A LARGE MCS WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RAIN. ...ERN KS...MO...NEB/IA... UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL STREAM NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY WITH A 40+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. LITTLE CIN WILL EXIST SO WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME STORMS MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ...OH/WV INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT A POCKET OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER WAVE/OLD MCV SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR A FEW STORM CORES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 03/19/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Ask him how deep the ditches are. (since he ran into one earlier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Oh yeah you called yourself the Reiminator, thought that was pretty good... BTW: I think the first question for the TX area of that outlook (the W TX squall line's influence) is being answered, that being, possibly not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Oh yeah you called yourself the Reiminator, thought that was pretty good... I called my Verizon Mifi wireless hotspot the Reimernator. Everything worked pretty well on Sunday and we'll see what happens later today. At least I can sleep in a little later now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Props to everyone who played today fairly conservative... the low-level shear just didn't quite work out for anything earth-shattering prior to CINH becoming prohibitive at ~02z (aside from the LBF surprise). Of course, much of the pre-dryline environment (all the way from I-40 to about DDC) wasn't even tested with convection, which was the other issue. Still a beastly occasionally-tornadic supercell for March (Hollis/Mangum) and a good chase for me, at least. Structure was hands down the best I've seen so early in the year, and will probably go toe to toe with a lot of the best storms from later this year, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 looks like that bow echo is producing some significant damage. "PAMPA GRAY TX ONE TELEPHONE POLE PARTIALLY BROKEN ... ONE LIGHT POLE BLOWN DOWN ... AND THE FRONT END OF A WEAK AND OLD WOOD FRAME BUILDING BLOWN OUT. THIS DAMAGE WAS VERY LOCALIZED IN P" "MEMPHIS HALL TX WALL COLLAPSED AT LOCAL HEALTH CLINIC. HEAVY DAMAGE TO HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL STADIUM PRESS BOX. NUMEROUS TREES ... FENCES ... ROAD SIGNS DOWNED" http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 TORNADO WARNING TXC173-329-190915- /O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0001.120319T0846Z-120319T0915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 346 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL GLASSCOCK COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS... EASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS... * UNTIL 415 AM CDT * AT 344 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRABERRY...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF MIDLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... SPRABERRY... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS. TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3206 10182 3206 10162 3183 10162 3167 10200 3178 10209 TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 228DEG 23KT 3175 10197 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Been a while since I've posted on these forums but I'm coming back in for this event. I may have forgotten the rules so please delete this loop if it's causing anybody problems loading the page - I'm sorry if it does. The squall line, forecast to reach I-35 by 10am, has separated into two segments. The northern segment is booking off to the northeast into Oklahoma, and the southern section of the line is BARELY moving, hasn't gotten more than 30 miles east of Midland since midnight. Unless new activity pops up to the east of it, which seems possible given the recent activity near San Angelo (the blob north of Fredericksburg seems less important), then I think the morning squall line bypasses most of the action area here in North Texas, and this situation will end up real unstable by afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Been a while since I've posted on these forums but I'm coming back in for this event. I may have forgotten the rules so please delete this loop if it's causing anybody problems loading the page - I'm sorry if it does. The squall line, forecast to reach I-35 by 10am, has separated into two segments. The northern segment is booking off to the northeast into Oklahoma, and the southern section of the line is BARELY moving, hasn't gotten more than 30 miles east of Midland since midnight. Unless new activity pops up to the east of it, which seems possible given the recent activity near San Angelo (the blob north of Fredericksburg seems less important), then I think the morning squall line bypasses most of the action area here in North Texas, and this situation will end up real unstable by afternoon. Except this hasn't really done much either over the last couple of hours... I think one thing is for certain, there probably isn't going to be a big morning MCS to mess up destabilization like there would be with more easterly storm motions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Except this hasn't really done much either over the last couple of hours... Right it hasn't - which is why it's odd the NWS (well, FWD anyway) actually moved up the timing of the morning squall line with the 4am discussion. At midnight's update they had it progged to arrive atound 15z. Now, sunrise. How is that going to reach Graham by sunrise unless I'm just not seeing something? Maybe broken line segments are fixing to slingshot out of the Llano Estacado as bowing segments at freeway speed, like that first big section in Oklahoma did.... That's about the only way I see this timetable verifying. I think one thing is for certain, there probably isn't going to be a big morning MCS to mess up destabilization like there would be with more easterly storm motions. Or this. Almost definitely this. My AFD, though.... FOR TODAY...WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS...TO REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF NORTH TEXAS AROUND SUNRISE. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW DOWN OR STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE DAYTIME CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS RIPE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PROPAGATION OF THE SQUALL LINE TODAY AND THE LOCATION OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT IS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY END UP...WE WILL OPT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TONIGHT AND MUCH HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The isolated storms in Central Texas are in areas of -150+ J/kg CIN, they probably will not cause any issues... Temperatures are currently sitting at around 70 in Dallas and 72 in Austin, and will rise whether there is sun or not come afternoon... And look at these dewpoints: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWOZ2jcruA0 Our footage from the monster OK cell with 3 tornadoes. What a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Props to everyone who played today fairly conservative... the low-level shear just didn't quite work out for anything earth-shattering prior to CINH becoming prohibitive at ~02z (aside from the LBF surprise). Of course, much of the pre-dryline environment (all the way from I-40 to about DDC) wasn't even tested with convection, which was the other issue. Still a beastly occasionally-tornadic supercell for March (Hollis/Mangum) and a good chase for me, at least. Structure was hands down the best I've seen so early in the year, and will probably go toe to toe with a lot of the best storms from later this year, too. I do think there was just enough capping with temps falling a couple degrees short of expected highs. As I posted earlier in the thread, the CIN difference between a high of 80 or 75 off the AMA sounding was pretty large. Childress managed to hit 80, and we saw what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Busy pretty far North too. Could really be a banner day tomorrow if this were to even remotely verify. Last night's guidance was looking that way, we'll see how that air mass can recover today. It will be interesting to see what kind of boundary, if any, the morning convection can lay down in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I just had this exact thought, we have three discrete supercells in a very favorable environment for crying out loud. Regarding the lack of a watch for Nebraska last evening: As some have mentioned, the SPC issues watches based on probabilities. When it comes to tornado watches that is multiple tornadoes (i.e. two or more). Since they were looking at one tornadic supercell they may not have felt it necessary. Additionally, a watch indicates severe weather is favorable in the next few hours, whereas this was ongoing and expected to remain isolated. Baro can probably attest to this too, but there are also times when the WFO would rather not have a watch out because it is an extra workload that just isn't necessary for the office to take on at the time. You take a forecaster away from the radar, or phones, or LSRs to issue that watch, and their resources are just best used for something other than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Don't see 50% contours very often with this product... I can think of a few days it has happened in the past couple of years, and they've been pretty big days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Don't see 50% contours very often with this product... I can think of a few days it has happened in the past couple of years, and they've been pretty big days. Not only is that a 50 area, but that is a very sizable 50 area...sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Don't see 50% contours very often with this product... I can think of a few days it has happened in the past couple of years, and they've been pretty big days. Can't remember too many 50 contours that didn't produce in a big way, furthermore I don't think many covered this large of an area... Though not surprising due to the low level backed flow over the entire warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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