SouthernNJ Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Circulation increasing to the southwest of Crowell TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Circulation increasing to the southwest of Crowell TX. Looks like it's trying to form a hook on 0.5 reflectivity. Mighty impressive structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS AND SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 182205Z - 182330Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WW OVER WRN KS AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN NEB. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT A WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ISOLATED CONVECTION AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN KS JUST WEST OF AND NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 40S AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED. THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH AND MAY REMAIN IN THE DRYER AIR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THESE STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS WWD AS DRYLINE RETREATS DURING THE EVENING. HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT...BUT DEEP SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MOREOVER...0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. STORM COVERAGE REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP EAST OF DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. NEVERTHELESS A FEW HOUR WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/18/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Looks like it's trying to form a hook on 0.5 reflectivity. Mighty impressive structure. Real broad rotation up through all the tilts it looks like on radarscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 tornado warming and reported funnel cloud southeast of Guthrie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 The supercell north of Childress is looking dangerous now. Very large hail and an increasing circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 SE of Childress, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Based on spotter reports, looks like nearly all of them have a wall cloud now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 really started to hook in the past two scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 That cell now has increased rotation and a funnel cloud reported half-way to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 546 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL FOARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 541 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CROWELL AND MARGARET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 The Crowell storm has a bigger hook than the Guthrie storm at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 southern most cell is also starting to hook. Webcam shows the first cell is really starting to go, should produce here in the next 5 minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Well didn't take these storms very long. My ride home and they arrive at the at a little better moisture situation, and just northeast of the dry line bulge we have some enhanced vorticity, there you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Man those are some monster supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TX...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 80... VALID 182236Z - 190000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 80 CONTINUES. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM NWRN TX INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. MOREOVER...VERY LARGE HAIL REMAINS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EARLY THIS EVENING...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING NEAR THE DRYLINE IS MOVING INTO THE MOISTER WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60F FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50 KT. THUS BEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 23-02Z AS THE LLJ INCREASES AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE AND DECOUPLE. ..DIAL.. 03/18/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Trapped waves = stability in the boundary layer since waves require high static stability. Will be interesting to see if that area in SW OK can destabilize sufficiently as those track east. The kinematics are certainly better heading east. Indeed, some people mistake them for gravity waves, but they are just stable wave clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Nice left split heading up towards Shamrock, probably producing near golf ball size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Got some bad mojo from the northernmost cells. Southernmost cell has a beautiful TBSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I think storm merger disrupted the northern most storm recently, but it appears like it is becoming better organized again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Northern cell getting it's stuff together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Just watched a funnel extend halfway down on the northern storm via TVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Nice looking tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Just watched a funnel extend halfway down on the northern storm via TVN. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Link? http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Whoa... Big time rotation now. Pretty sure that's just a bad scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Here is the 18z NAM sounding for Lake Worth, Texas valid at 7pm cdt tomorrow evening. Another explosive-looking sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Pretty sure that's just a bad scan. Yup, false return, went away a scan later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Pretty sure that's just a bad scan. Seems like it. L3 had it as well. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Far northern storm has consolidated into one updraft now, should see some better organization soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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