OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Probably already some small hail in at least the storm northwest of Paducah, as well as northwest of Aspermont. Still have a ways to go before we're talking severe hail though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Weak meso developing on the cell headed towards Childress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I would also keep an eye on the storm SW of Guthrie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I would also keep an eye on the storm SW of Guthrie It gets credit for the first lightning producer of the bunch. The northern cell isn't far behind though. Nice core of 60+ dBZ above the freezing level, so there is graupel in there for lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Latest scan puts that northern cell very close to severe. And we're talking about 2 kft shy of my threshold right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see the trigger pulled soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Weak meso developing on the cell headed towards Childress Hail likely becoming more prominent in this storm as of 342 CDT scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 095 WUUS54 KLUB 182046 SVRLUB TXC075-101-191-182145- /O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0007.120318T2046Z-120318T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 346 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. SOUTHWESTERN CHILDRESS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. * UNTIL 445 PM CDT * AT 345 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CEE VEE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF PADUCAH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE TELL...CHILDRESS AND KIRKLAND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8067451290. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3422 10000 3423 10003 3419 10004 3412 10038 3429 10052 3465 10025 3438 9999 3423 9999 TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 243DEG 25KT 3423 10041 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Hail likely becoming more prominent in this storm as of 342 CDT scan. I would think a warning is on the way in the next 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 70 dBZ to 20kft is almost always good for quarter sized hail, and we've reached that level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 If a TV station starts live streaming online, could you post the link for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 Mid-level meso might be strengthening...hard to tell for certain given the distance from LBB and FDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 The mesocyclone has strengthened a bit, possibly seeing some golf balls from this storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Mid-level meso might be strengthening...hard to tell for certain given the distance from LBB and FDR. It does look like it could be a decent meso somewhere in the purple haze around 4.3 degrees. Edit: From KFDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 Extremely strong rotation aloft on LBB's 1.45° tilt. Watch for that to descend in the next 15-20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 The Guthrie storm looks to soon join the SVR act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Extremely strong rotation aloft on LBB's 1.45° tilt. Watch for that to descend in the next 15-20 minutes. What site are you using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I think I'd still like to see the northern storm grow a little "fatter" updraft. Too easy to entrain dry air aloft with a skinny one, and I think it's battling that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Talking to Reimer on the phone, that Childress cell is still high based somewhat. LCL's may need to come down some more for them to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Talking to Reimer on the phone, that Childress cell is still high based somewhat. LCL's may need to come down some more for them to produce. Dewpoint depressions are 23 degrees in Childress. Perhaps tornado potential will be greater right before they cross into the stable air and weaken, but just as they are able to tap deeper moisture (maybe in around 2 hours or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 Talking to Reimer on the phone, that Childress cell is still high based somewhat. LCL's may need to come down some more for them to produce. If these storms continue with some easterly heading, they should eventually get to some lower LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Talking to Reimer on the phone, that Childress cell is still high based somewhat. LCL's may need to come down some more for them to produce. Can't say I'm too surprised, clouds just to the east still have a bit of a stable look to them too. Seems like another updraft surge is underway on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Right now it appears the updraft isn't stout enough to maintain strength very long. It surged then dumped whatever core it had on the last scan, almost right on top of Route 83 north of Childress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 The cell down by Guthrie is consolidating into a larger updraft, and has been able to maintain that high dBZ aloft. The longer that core stays aloft, the more likely the large hail will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Excellent overshooting top visible on the Guthrie storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 The Guthrie storm looks to soon join the SVR act. This storm had a smaller one form behind it, which merged with it. Has created a stronger storm with a slightly stronger mesocyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Trapped waves = stability in the boundary layer since waves require high static stability. Will be interesting to see if that area in SW OK can destabilize sufficiently as those track east. The kinematics are certainly better heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 444 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 TXC101-269-182200- /O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120318T2200Z/ KING TX-COTTLE TX- 444 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE AND NORTHEASTERN KING COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT... AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHALK...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUTHRIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS DISPLAYING INCREASING ROTATION ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF KING COUNTY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHALK AND HACKBERRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHALK...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUTHRIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS DISPLAYING INCREASING ROTATION ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF KING COUNTY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHALK AND HACKBERRY. That storm is suspending at least one pixel of 70 dBZ at 30 kft. That is getting into significant hail now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 That storm is suspending at least one pixel of 70 dBZ at 30 kft. That is getting into significant hail now That's a solid area of 65+ dBZ at 30kft too, probably baseballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Right now it appears the updraft isn't stout enough to maintain strength very long. It surged then dumped whatever core it had on the last scan, almost right on top of Route 83 north of Childress. Great call, a storm chaser reported Quarter size hail in almost this exact location, right at the time you mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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