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18-20 March 2012 severe prospects


tornadotony

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This very much, and believe me, if that secondary sfc low develops as virtually all the models suggest, there's going to be more than just slight backing of the sfc winds.

Was going to mention the impact from the secondary low idea as well, great point. Furthermore, if instability is being underdone farther north in the Slight Risk tomorrow, the threat will be much higher there as well. Backed surface winds in that area, strong shear profiles, and although the jet core is back to the west, the flow at jet level over the northern portion of the slight is fairly diffluent, which could provide an additional boost in updraft intensity.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0231 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181931Z - 182130Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND 21Z. LARGE HAIL WILL

BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW

WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

19Z VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE

TX S PLAINS E OF LBB AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM WRN KS

THROUGH SWRN TX. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER

70S THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY WEAK MLCIN REMAINS WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW

APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING REMAINING CAP WILL

QUICKLY ERODE AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT

COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WELL TO

THE WEST ACROSS AZ/NM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HEIGHT FALLS

HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RECENT

PROFILER DATA HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL FLOW STREAMING

INTO THE MCD AREA. GIVEN BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS AND MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM...ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE

OF LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE

MAIN THE THREAT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD AND STRONGER DEEP

LAYER FORCING ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION TOWARD 00Z...LOW LEVEL

HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

THEREFORE...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

..LEITMAN.. 03/18/2012

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18z RUC Sounding for Canadian Texas at 7pm cdt this evening. Even more explosive of situation.

CIN much weaker and LCL heights a lot lower there...in conjunction with even better shear and instability...

LUB is live on NOAA radio on David's stream right now.

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If the RUC/SPC Mesoanalysis has any clue what it is assimilating, there should be initiation soon Childress southwestward based on vis. Right now effective bulk shear as well as low level shear are still a bit on the low side with kinematics increasing into OK. CINH and lower CAPE also exist farther E with that expansive cloud shield.

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