andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 If would strongly back the sfc winds and intensify the LLJ, so yes, in all likelihood, that would be an ugly scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 This very much, and believe me, if that secondary sfc low develops as virtually all the models suggest, there's going to be more than just slight backing of the sfc winds. Was going to mention the impact from the secondary low idea as well, great point. Furthermore, if instability is being underdone farther north in the Slight Risk tomorrow, the threat will be much higher there as well. Backed surface winds in that area, strong shear profiles, and although the jet core is back to the west, the flow at jet level over the northern portion of the slight is fairly diffluent, which could provide an additional boost in updraft intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 15z RUC Sounding for Canadian Texas at 7pm CDT this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 While the LCLs are still quite high, the fact that we're seeing a hodograph like that before the LLJ really begins to crank is not a good sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Look at the surface winds already starting to back in response to the height falls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 To me, that sounding for Canadian, Texas is showing little capping inversion, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 To me, that sounding for Canadian, Texas is showing little capping inversion, if any. Inversion aside, look at that instability profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 View from just west of Childress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Inversion aside, look at that instability profile. I see that. Very unstable instability profile on the Canadian TX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Dry line is quickly mixing eastward. Looks to be two areas of agitated CU. One area between CDS and SNK, east of LBK...With another up in the Wheeler/Shamrock area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 FireWx Nest: http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html Also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...WRN N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181931Z - 182130Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND 21Z. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. 19Z VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS E OF LBB AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM WRN KS THROUGH SWRN TX. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY WEAK MLCIN REMAINS WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING REMAINING CAP WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS AZ/NM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RECENT PROFILER DATA HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL FLOW STREAMING INTO THE MCD AREA. GIVEN BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM...ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN THE THREAT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION TOWARD 00Z...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. ..LEITMAN.. 03/18/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 FireWx Nest: http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html Goodness gracious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 18z RUC Sounding for Canadian Texas at 7pm cdt this evening. Even more explosive of situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I'd say Aspermont-Lubbock-Childress-Vernon will be where supercells pop up pretty soon, possibly heading to SW Oklahoma. Effective shear is up to about 35 knots, so shear looks a little better than a couple of hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 18z RUC Sounding for Canadian Texas at 7pm cdt this evening. Even more explosive of situation. CIN much weaker and LCL heights a lot lower there...in conjunction with even better shear and instability... LUB is live on NOAA radio on David's stream right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Are any TV stations live streaming online yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Already have agitated Cu poking up into the mid levels (around 10-15 kft) visible on the higher scans from KLBB. I also like how theta-e is pooling south of CDS, setting up a nice gradient on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Are any TV stations live streaming online yet? No not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I think the LLJ just hit me, with southerly gusts to 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Latest mesoanalysis shows very strong instability already and winds backed SSE across much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Our first attempt at initiation west of Aspermont, 45 dBZ over the freezing level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 If the RUC/SPC Mesoanalysis has any clue what it is assimilating, there should be initiation soon Childress southwestward based on vis. Right now effective bulk shear as well as low level shear are still a bit on the low side with kinematics increasing into OK. CINH and lower CAPE also exist farther E with that expansive cloud shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 West of Jayton, looks like a cell going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 West of Jayton, looks like a cell going up. Capping looks to have gotten to that cell's first attempt. The dBZ has pulsed down a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Tornado Watch issued TX/OK until 10pm cdt. 3" hail and 70mph wind the other hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 20z outlook made no change to the probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 As these early Cu hit the theta-e ridge they are all pulsing up in unison now, from southwest of Childress down to Snyder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LBB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 it looks like some of the cells are starting to punch through the cap but I could be seeing things wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.