OKpowdah Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 The 21z SPC SREF increased the supercell parameter to 1 and STP to 1 across SNE All the weenies ever posted on AmericanWx forums would not be sufficient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Hey Wiz... I'm on the mids this week, though not doing short term. I did let him know about the SEE TEXT, and he already saw it. Also already saw the line of C/G lightning heading out of SE Michigan at 04Z tonight. Remember...look to Michigan for possible severe here in W-NW flow aloft! Still think it's kind of soon, though. Noticing SW low level flow ahead of front/weak low pres moving through between 21Z Tue and 00Z Wed. Pretty cold waters to the S. Wouldn't surprise me to see TSTMs, but severe...am not too impressed at this point. Just my 2 cents. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 Hey Wiz... I'm on the mids this week, though not doing short term. I did let him know about the SEE TEXT, and he already saw it. Also already saw the line of C/G lightning heading out of SE Michigan at 04Z tonight. Remember...look to Michigan for possible severe here in W-NW flow aloft! Still think it's kind of soon, though. Noticing SW low level flow ahead of front/weak low pres moving through between 21Z Tue and 00Z Wed. Pretty cold waters to the S. Wouldn't surprise me to see TSTMs, but severe...am not too impressed at this point. Just my 2 cents. --Turtle I agree...I don't think we see much in the way of severe at all...in fact any reports should be below severe criteria. While the instability we should have looks similar to what they had across MI the shear is going to be significantly less and the lift won't nearly be as strong and convergence will be weaker. I would think storms though probably fizzle out very quickly as they move east as timing will be during the loss of heating/instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 I agree...I don't think we see much in the way of severe at all...in fact any reports should be below severe criteria. While the instability we should have looks similar to what they had across MI the shear is going to be significantly less and the lift won't nearly be as strong and convergence will be weaker. I would think storms though probably fizzle out very quickly as they move east as timing will be during the loss of heating/instability. Agreed, Paul. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 Still have a SEE TEXT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Still have a SEE TEXT!!! Western Mass and CT in a 5% hail and wind area, and after the Winter that as rather fail after Halloween, I'll be rooting for y'all. Latest 21Z RUC BDL forecast skew-T isn't all that impressive, but I am always a glass sixteenth full optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Western Mass and CT in a 5% hail and wind area, and after the Winter that as rather fail after Halloween, I'll be rooting for y'all. Latest 21Z RUC BDL forecast skew-T isn't all that impressive, but I am always a glass sixteenth full optimistic. At least the sun is out shining rather strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 bust for today but its nice to be in the spirit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 bust for today but its nice to be in the spirit That's why I was so excited...getting into the spirit. Beautiful out...working until 6 and just driving the golf cart around collecting money from people who want to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 I wouldn't rule out a few cells actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 I wouldn't rule out a few cells actually. Yeah, sun is in full blast here. climbing past 70 with dewpoints approaching 60. That convection should be entering a relatively unstable environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 For some reason mesoanalysis not working on my phone. Can someone post the following values: SBcape MLcape MUcape LI Mlvl lapse rates Llvl lapse rates 0-6km shear 0-1km helicity 0-3km helicity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 For some reason mesoanalysis not working on my phone. Can someone post the following values: SBcape MLcape MUcape LI Mlvl lapse rates Llvl lapse rates 0-6km shear 0-1km helicity 0-3km helicity For MA and CT west of the river: SBcape < 250 J/Kg MUcape between 150 and 350 J/Kg LI 1 mlvl & llvl lapse rates ~7 C/Km 0-6km shear 40 kts 0-1 helicity ~100 m2/s2 0-3 helicity ~125 m2/s2 Pretty hard to get excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 For MA and CT west of the river: SBcape < 250 J/Kg MUcape between 150 and 350 J/Kg LI 1 mlvl & llvl lapse rates ~7 C/Km 0-6km shear 40 kts 0-1 helicity ~100 m2/s2 0-3 helicity ~125 m2/s2 Pretty hard to get excited about Thanks...yeah numbers aren't impressive and little in the way of convergence. I think there is a weak cap too in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 what a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 what a bust I think the cloud cover pretty muck made this event dead on arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Does anyone know how many storms were around the area today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Does anyone know how many storms were around the area today? Goose egg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Classic kick-off to New England "severe weather" season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Wiz FTW while Kev dreams of days and days of 80s next week SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR TO THE NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. APPEARS THAT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO RESULT IN THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Does anyone know how many storms were around the area today? Wiz FTW tonight, Kev for the trolling phail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Parents reported lightning in Keene!!! Jealous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 well, holy crap...look at those cells...night time t-storms in March!!! wth is up with mother nature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 wow, Adams and north Adams just got rocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Wiz FTW tonight, Kev for the trolling phail. It was still pretty crappy...a couple isolated storms tonight. Its kind of cool to see so early in the year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 It was still pretty crappy...a couple isolated storms tonight. Its kind of cool to see so early in the year though. Megan is about to get clocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Megan is about to get clocked Lol...i think the "storm" is about 1 mile across and would probably last 3 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Lol...i think the "storm" is about 1 mile across and would probably last 3 minutes. oh come on, it's MARCH!!! get exited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 A lot of lightning coming in now. Getting pretty close with some booms of thunder. Should get fun here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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