weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 While I personally believe we will still deal with much colder weather and perhaps some snow threats right now we are in spring mode. A major trough digging into the eastern Pacific/western US is pumping up a massive ridge across the central/eastern US. While the most impressive warmth will occur across the central states through the Ohio Valley and into the upper Mid-west we will still see temperatures well above-normal here in the Northeast. With a strong southerly/southwesterly flow will come major warmth along with an increase in moisture (higher dewpoints). This will lead to some marginal instability at times. On Tuesday a rather potent shortwave trough will move through the mid-levels of the atmosphere on Tuesday across extreme Northern New England/southern Canada. This will work to swing a backdoor cold front through New England very late on Tuesday afternoon and overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Backdoor cold fronts are not really known to have strong lift associated with them s the colder air is much more shallow in nature and the sharpness of the front is not very steep at all. However, with the approaching mid-level shortwave trough we will see an increase in winds aloft (especially in the mid-levels of the atmosphere). Both the NAM/GFS are indicating a MLJ streak of about 50-70 knots moving into the region from the west/northwest very late Tuesday. The nose of this mid-level jet along with increasing vorticity may produce just enough lift to spark some showers and perhaps some convection. With temperatures on Tuesday likely ranging from the lower 60's to upper 60's (colder closer to coastal areas and higher elevations) and dewpoints increasing to perhaps the lower 50's along with cold air advection in the mid-levels of the atmosphere this will create some weak instability, especially across western sections of southern New England. Computer models generate anywhere from 200-500 J/KG of SBcape/MUcape/MLcape along with LI values as low as -2C to -3C, SI values of around -1C to -2C, TT's into the lower 50's, and a KI closing in on zero...now keep in mind these higher instability totals are progged for western sections (virtually west of the CT River Valley). Once you get to the CT River valley in east these values significantly become much more stable. Thanks in part to some decent mid-level lapse rates (around 6.5 C/KM) along with some helicity (0-1km and 0-3km helicity between 100-150 m2s2), and 0-6km shear values of 30-35 knots this could mean we see a few storms perhaps become capable of producing some small hail and some gusty winds. We also do have some dry air in the mid levels which could help here. Due to a lack of moisture and stronger instability we aren't looking at a severe threat here but some parameters are in place for some convection to develop. The better threat though may exist across New York state and portions of western northern New England where they will be closer to the stronger lift and timing of the front would give them a bit more instability to work with. If any convection were to maintain itself east of the CT River valley it would likely become elevated very quickly as well as weaken instability quickly drops off. If the convection were to maintain itself it would strictly be feed from the nose of the 50-70 knot MLJ moving through the region. We'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 It feels nice to finally be able to make some of these threads again, especially after this pathetic of a season we called winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 The SREFs have decent probs into the Berks, but timing sucks further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Instead of a see text... see this :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 The SREFs have decent probs into the Berks, but timing sucks further east. To see the SPC SREF have this over western MA/CT for March 13th is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Might as well issue the PDS tornado watch right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 The 21z SREF is just coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 This thread is a triple bunner I think. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 This thread is a triple bunner I think. :weenie: 21 bun salute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 SEE TEXT!!! I KNEW IT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 What a weenie thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 It's a see text it really doesn't even deserve a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Wiz - I love seeing your Severe TStorm threads. Don't let these jamokes drive you away. And make sure hippies in Chesterfield give good reports when they have tropical severe weather tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Wiz - I love seeing your Severe TStorm threads. Don't let these jamokes drive you away. And make sure hippies in Chesterfield give good reports when they have tropical severe weather tomorrow I hope it snows in west chesterfield tmrw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Update from the SPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Wiz - I love seeing your Severe TStorm threads. Don't let these jamokes drive you away. And make sure hippies in Chesterfield give good reports when they have tropical severe weather tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 You can weenie all you want but the SPC SREF bumped up probs slightly and other models still indicate a dying line working into western sections of southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 SEE TEXT EXTENDED INTO WESTERN MA/CT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AIT Now what do you all have to say??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 SEE TEXT EXTENDED INTO WESTERN MA/CT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AIT Now what do you all have to say??? Your chances are probably as good in terms of seeing a severe threat in CT as they are of a male having arachnophobia. At least you beat the odds on one of the two. The odds that a male age 18-49 is afraid of spiders: 1 in 83.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Your chances are probably as good in terms of seeing a severe threat in CT as they are of a male having arachnophobia. At least you beat the odds on one of the two. The odds that a male age 18-49 is afraid of spiders: 1 in 83.33 I feel special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 would be better to see atleast 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 would be better to see atleast 15% Soon enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I'll be sure to post when I'm getting hammered here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 here you go wiz TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 73 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 425 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 TORNADO WATCH 73 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MIC005-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-037-045-051-057-059-065- 067-073-075-077-081-107-111-117-121-123-133-139-145-149-155-159- 130300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0073.120312T2025Z-120313T0300Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN ARENAC BARRY BAY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLARE CLINTON EATON GLADWIN GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT MECOSTA MIDLAND MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OSCEOLA OTTAWA SAGINAW SHIAWASSEE ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 The 21z SPC SREF increased the supercell parameter to 1 and STP to 1 across SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 The instability being portrayed on the 21z SPC SREF actually isn't too bad for early March. Definitely could see a few small hail/wind reports tomorrow across western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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