Great Lakes ice loss at 71% since the early 1970s

[bluewave]

Michigan is smack in the middle of the great lakes... This is why the original thread subject is very odd.

Since the study is only from the early 70's on, it going to reflect the warming trend over that shorter period.

[ORH_wxman]

This is not an accurate description of the history of climate forecasts on snowfall. The IPCC only has ever said that snowfall would decrease gradually in the very long run over 100+ years. Which is what the IPCC still says, and which is an absolute certainty given a likely warming of close to 3C over the next century and probable warming of mid-latitude winters by 5C+. Given we've only warmed less than 1C so far any effects on snowfall would likely be fairly small and difficult to detect given our unreliable snowfall records.

Finally, a negative effect on snowfall is already detectable in locations which were marginal for snowfall to begin with, like Seattle, NYC, and DCA. The declines in places like Seattle and Portland are astonishing over the last 100+ years. Try blaming that one on the AMO.

Are you actually denying that 3C of warming and 5C of mid-latitude winter warming will have a deleterious effect on winter snowfall? That would be a pretty stupid thing to deny.

Or are you simply denying that we will warm 3C globally and 5C in mid-latitude winters? If so, perhaps your objections are misplaced. Objecting to the warming forecast itself is an entirely separate issue from denying snowfall forecasts based on particular assumptions.

Northern hemisphere winter snow cover is near all time highs in the past 50 years or so since we have data....cherry picking seattle, NYC, or DCA will not change that. Its not a shock that the end of the little ice age had more snow in those areas...I don't think anyone disputes that, but in the context of AGW and new literature that says declining sea ice may cause more snow in the mid-latitudes...it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense when the data is crunched.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Northern hemisphere winter snow cover is near all time highs in the past 50 years or so since we have data....cherry picking seattle, NYC, or DCA will not change that. Its not a shock that the end of the little ice age had more snow in those areas...I don't think anyone disputes that, but in the context of AGW and new literature that says declining sea ice may cause more snow in the mid-latitudes...it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense when the data is crunched.

In winter.

In Spring it's going in the complete opposite direction, which has a larger overall impact on the Earth's energy budget.

[michsnowfreak]

Huh? IPCC said the winters will have less snowfall going forward and how does snowfall have "little to do with seasonal weather"? Its a huge topic discussed in the realm of AGW discussion. One of the reasons its been debated is because everyone said it would decrease mostly because of the negative trend from the 1960-1970s to the 1990s but then it spiked back up (globally speaking) this last decade. So now we have papers saying that AGW might cause increased snowfall because of decreased sea ice. Which flies in the face of the big snowfall numbers globally in the 1960s and 1970s when sea ice was high.

Oh, how I remember the '90s, when we were total GW was going to cause snow-sports to become nonexistent in the north. I even had some articles I saved on the subject but have since thrown out. We since saw a huge spike in snowfall from the 1990s to 2000s, and suddenly all that disappearing snowfall talk is now increasing snow bc of AGW lol.

[michsnowfreak]

We can finally put to rest the grandfather stories "the winters used to be snowier when I was a kid" junk for most regions. At least that much is cleared up.

So true, and I love it! Its always been happening though. Generations of grandpas always insisted that winters were harsher when they were a kid (but yet usually simultaneously complain that they cant handle winter now like they used to lol). I have a collection of old newspaper arcticles on snowstorms and stuff, and one Detroit Free Press arcticle from March 1954 was basically mocking the whole concept. After a very mild winter with light snowfall (a very common occurance during this time, but I digress ), a 7" and a 5" snowstorm came 3 days apart to open March. The paper had a mini comicstrip type of deal, first of an old man in a wheelchair exclaiming "this is NOTHING, in my day winters...." and then showed a picture of a younger man (the grandpa) trying to escape through the chimney of his house that was totally buried in snow, and then a pic of the grandkids listening in disbelief and grandpa saying something like "don't laugh, in 50 years thats how we will be describing the winter of '54". I absolutely LOVED this little snippet because it shows how things havent changed a bit. Also, from the April 7, 1886 Free Press, following Detroits massive 24.5" cement snow, biggest on record, the "oldest inhabitant" tried to belittle the storm to those from the '40s and 50s (1840s-50s of course). Some things never change. Its just even more convenient that this generation of grandpas grew up (here at least) during our LEAST snowy winters.

[michsnowfreak]

Josh is probably the most climate aware poster on this forum in regard to the great lakes region. There is another poster from Chicago who is about the same in that regard. Both posters have found no correlations to these claims.

What else do you want to hear?

The only reason I opened this thread is because it had Great Lakes in it. I usually stay out of this forum. I stay out of anything with these hardcore AGW posters posting graphs and long stories about stuff I really dont study. Im not even saying a word about climate change itself. What I KNOW is climate data, as you said, the data is all there and damn right I will call absolute BULLSH*T on anyone who tries to claim certain things are happening to our sensible weather as a result of climate change when they arent happening.The whole "winters were harsher stories" we hear from MOST people ARE totally dependant on snowfall, ESPECIALLY those who have no interest in weather/climate. The whole premise of their stories is not that "winter temps were 0.6C warmer in my day" LOL, it is that "my kids used to sled off the roof there was so much snow" or "snow always covered the ground from Nov thru Mar". So it IS totally relevant to bring up the fact that this is 100000% false and there is TONS of snowfall data to prove this.

[michsnowfreak]

I pull most of my data from here.

http://www7.ncdc.noa.../coop/coop.html

Thats the link for all coop stations.

Heres the link for all official climate stations. Anyone with any questions about their areas past winters, summers, whatever. Its ALLL right here.

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html

[Snowstorms]

Oh, how I remember the '90s, when we were total GW was going to cause snow-sports to become nonexistent in the north. I even had some articles I saved on the subject but have since thrown out. We since saw a huge spike in snowfall from the 1990s to 2000s, and suddenly all that disappearing snowfall talk is now increasing snow bc of AGW lol.

The 80's and 90's featured alot of crappy Winters in retaliation to the +PDO but as you said, we saw a decent spike in the 2000's. In Toronto we once again went above the decadal average of 125cm to 138.0cm.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1

We saw the second highest snow cover anomaly in 2010 behind 1978. The third highest was last Winter and the fourth highest was in 2008. Amazingly the PDO shifted back in 2007.

We can observe a decline in NH snowfall anomaly in the Spring but a stable trend in the Fall. Do we see a trend, I dont think so.

First the declining snow is because of AGW and now the increasing snowfall is b/c of AGW....lol. Amazing science!

The ice anomalies in the Great lakes is highly variable and mostly weather dependent and the wind flow. This Winter we saw a consistent SW flow which prevented the waters from cooling, thus the ice anomaly was below avg this year.

[Jonger]

The 80's and 90's featured alot of crappy Winters in retaliation to the +PDO but as you said, we saw a decent spike in the 2000's. In Toronto we once again went above the decadal average of 125cm to 138.0cm.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1

We saw the second highest snow cover anomaly in 2010 behind 1978. The third highest was last Winter and the fourth highest was in 2008. Amazingly the PDO shifted back in 2007.

We can observe a decline in NH snowfall anomaly in the Spring but a stable trend in the Fall. Do we see a trend, I dont think so.

First the declining snow is because of AGW and now the increasing snowfall is b/c of AGW....lol. Amazing science!

The ice anomalies in the Great lakes is highly variable and mostly weather dependent and the wind flow. This Winter we saw a consistent SW flow which prevented the waters from cooling, thus the ice anomaly was below avg this year.

I never accumulated more then 10 inches of snow on the ground from 1985 till 1999. I have accomplished that at least a dozen times since then.

[TerryM]

Since the study is only from the early 70's on, it going to reflect the warming trend over that shorter period.

I found the source I was after.

For Lake Erie - from 1972 - 1992 an average ice cover of >50%

For Lake Erie - from 1991 - 2011 an average ice cover of <45%

Lake Huron drops from <55% to 43%, and Lake Michigan from 24% to 18% over the same time periods.

This fits well with Bluewave's graphic - and may get us back onto the topic of ice.

I didn't do charts for Lake Superior as I assume the results would be similar, but I'd encourage anyone who thinks things would be different to run the program and see what comes up.

The graphics generator isn't limited to the Great Lakes, but is available for any navigable Canadian body of water - all in all a handy resource.

http://dynaweb.cis.ec.gc.ca/IceGraph20/?lang=en

Snow cover/events/and recollections of such, might be an interesting topic - although not one that I'm particularly interested in - If some think they'd like to discuss it, why don't you start a thread on the topic? This really is all about ice

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Macleans magazine (canada's version of TIme annd Newsweek) has a cover story this week which says "The year that winter died: coast to coast we've had the warmest winter in 65 years. Why we may never have a real Canadian winter again."

I can't post a link to the story yet as I think there's a delay between the publishing of the print edition and the story being put online.

I quote from the story:

"This season was, in fact, the third warmest and second driest in 65 years. Which might not sound so bad except that the last two times it was warmer, in 2009-10 and 2006-06, it was much snowier and wetter. And the last time it was drier, in 1956-57, it was colder. Until now, Canada has never had such hot days with so little snow. Even more unusual: this was the exact situation in every region, no matter how far north or south, east or west...we were, in other words, united in the absence of one thing that has long united us. Edmonton, Winnipeg, London Ont., and Halifax all experienced 25 percent less snow this year than normal...for the last 65 years, temperatures have risen across the country, and all signs suggest this will continue. Winter is melting away from Canada. And it's threatning to take our national identity with it...there are, of course various ideas about why we are having warmer winters. One theory suggests that after a period of strong sun activity during this century, the world will undergo a 'mini ice age' as part of a natural solar cycle. A more common belief is that, in the future, we will increasingly experience erratic and severe weather - say, mild winters inturrupted by disasterous blizzards and tornadoes, as just occurred in Newfoundland and parts of the States...the winter of our youth - with snowbanks so high you could climb onto bungalow roofs, with lakes and rivers frozen so thick you could drive a truck on them for kilometres to reach the farthest ice-fishing hut, with mountaintops so snowy it appaeraed as though they were wearing marshmallow toupees -is fast becoming that: a relic of the past."

[Jonger]

Macleans magazine (canada's version of TIme annd Newsweek) has a cover story this week which says "The year that winter died: coast to coast we've had the warmest winter in 65 years. Why we may never have a real Canadian winter again."

I can't post a link to the story yet as I think there's a delay between the publishing of the print edition and the story being put online.

I quote from the story:

"This season was, in fact, the third warmest and second driest in 65 years. Which might not sound so bad except that the last two times it was warmer, in 2009-10 and 2006-06, it was much snowier and wetter. And the last time it was drier, in 1956-57, it was colder. Until now, Canada has never had such hot days with so little snow. Even more unusual: this was the exact situation in every region, no matter how far north or south, east or west...we were, in other words, united in the absence of one thing that has long united us. Edmonton, Winnipeg, London Ont., and Halifax all experienced 25 percent less snow this year than normal...for the last 65 years, temperatures have risen across the country, and all signs suggest this will continue. Winter is melting away from Canada. And it's threatning to take our national identity with it...there are, of course various ideas about why we are having warmer winters. One theory suggests that after a period of strong sun activity during this century, the world will undergo a 'mini ice age' as part of a natural solar cycle. A more common belief is that, in the future, we will increasingly experience erratic and severe weather - say, mild winters inturrupted by disasterous blizzards and tornadoes, as just occurred in Newfoundland and parts of the States...the winter of our youth - with snowbanks so high you could climb onto bungalow roofs, with lakes and rivers frozen so thick you could drive a truck on them for kilometres to reach the farthest ice-fishing hut, with mountaintops so snowy it appaeraed as though they were wearing marshmallow toupees -is fast becoming that: a relic of the past."

I will bookmark this as a future article to laugh at.

[Snowlover76]

Macleans magazine (canada's version of TIme annd Newsweek) has a cover story this week which says "The year that winter died: coast to coast we've had the warmest winter in 65 years. Why we may never have a real Canadian winter again."

I can't post a link to the story yet as I think there's a delay between the publishing of the print edition and the story being put online.

I quote from the story:

"This season was, in fact, the third warmest and second driest in 65 years. Which might not sound so bad except that the last two times it was warmer, in 2009-10 and 2006-06, it was much snowier and wetter. And the last time it was drier, in 1956-57, it was colder. Until now, Canada has never had such hot days with so little snow. Even more unusual: this was the exact situation in every region, no matter how far north or south, east or west...we were, in other words, united in the absence of one thing that has long united us. Edmonton, Winnipeg, London Ont., and Halifax all experienced 25 percent less snow this year than normal...for the last 65 years, temperatures have risen across the country, and all signs suggest this will continue. Winter is melting away from Canada. And it's threatning to take our national identity with it...there are, of course various ideas about why we are having warmer winters. One theory suggests that after a period of strong sun activity during this century, the world will undergo a 'mini ice age' as part of a natural solar cycle. A more common belief is that, in the future, we will increasingly experience erratic and severe weather - say, mild winters inturrupted by disasterous blizzards and tornadoes, as just occurred in Newfoundland and parts of the States...the winter of our youth - with snowbanks so high you could climb onto bungalow roofs, with lakes and rivers frozen so thick you could drive a truck on them for kilometres to reach the farthest ice-fishing hut, with mountaintops so snowy it appaeraed as though they were wearing marshmallow toupees -is fast becoming that: a relic of the past."

That artcle was hilarious!!!!!

[Harry]

Macleans magazine (canada's version of TIme annd Newsweek) has a cover story this week which says "The year that winter died: coast to coast we've had the warmest winter in 65 years. Why we may never have a real Canadian winter again."

I can't post a link to the story yet as I think there's a delay between the publishing of the print edition and the story being put online.

I quote from the story:

"This season was, in fact, the third warmest and second driest in 65 years. Which might not sound so bad except that the last two times it was warmer, in 2009-10 and 2006-06, it was much snowier and wetter. And the last time it was drier, in 1956-57, it was colder. Until now, Canada has never had such hot days with so little snow. Even more unusual: this was the exact situation in every region, no matter how far north or south, east or west...we were, in other words, united in the absence of one thing that has long united us. Edmonton, Winnipeg, London Ont., and Halifax all experienced 25 percent less snow this year than normal...for the last 65 years, temperatures have risen across the country, and all signs suggest this will continue. Winter is melting away from Canada. And it's threatning to take our national identity with it...there are, of course various ideas about why we are having warmer winters. One theory suggests that after a period of strong sun activity during this century, the world will undergo a 'mini ice age' as part of a natural solar cycle. A more common belief is that, in the future, we will increasingly experience erratic and severe weather - say, mild winters inturrupted by disasterous blizzards and tornadoes, as just occurred in Newfoundland and parts of the States...the winter of our youth - with snowbanks so high you could climb onto bungalow roofs, with lakes and rivers frozen so thick you could drive a truck on them for kilometres to reach the farthest ice-fishing hut, with mountaintops so snowy it appaeraed as though they were wearing marshmallow toupees -is fast becoming that: a relic of the past."

I REALLY cannot stand articles like this. It does zero but set the cause even further behind because of expectations on both sides. So lets see it is a mini ice age or blazing? Whoever wrote that is a moron. Talk about hype. People who do not understand what drives our weather/climate need to just STFU.

[TerryM]

I haven't read the article. That said, the magazine has a decided right-wing slant, and may have been struggling over how to report what was in evidence without mentioning the possibility of global warming. It may be difficult to explain the presence of the elephant, when the government you're supporting has been telling everyone that elephants don't exist, and even if they do, they're small creatures that take up only a tiny amount of space.

Not sure why someone highlighted the sentence about driving to your ice fishing hut - that's traditionally how they're accessed.

[bluewave]

It's tough to get cold winters by Canadian standards with such a warm Arctic. That's why so many of the recent winters

have been mild. Sure you can still get an occasional winter that breaks even like 2009. It just makes milder winters

more likely than colder ones.

Last +AMO/-PDO era was much colder overall with the colder Arctic. Warmth mostly found over SE Canada.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I haven't read the article. That said, the magazine has a decided right-wing slant, and may have been struggling over how to report what was in evidence without mentioning the possibility of global warming. It may be difficult to explain the presence of the elephant, when the government you're supporting has been telling everyone that elephants don't exist, and even if they do, they're small creatures that take up only a tiny amount of space.

Not sure why someone highlighted the sentence about driving to your ice fishing hut - that's traditionally how they're accessed.

I bolded the sentence given it dealt with the subject of this thread.

Bear in mind that it is only an excerpt from the article. It would have taken too long to type out the whole article. The tone of the article is decidedly a global warming one, with the cover of the magazine musing that we may never see a real Canadian winter again.

You could probably find the magazine on the shelf if you're currently in Canada.

[TerryM]

I bolded the sentence given it dealt with the subject of this thread.

Bear in mind that it is only an excerpt from the article. It would have taken too long to type out the whole article. The tone of the article is decidedly a global warming one, with the cover of the magazine musing that we may never see a real Canadian winter again.

You could probably find the magazine on the shelf if you're currently in Canada.

Thanks,

I'll pick up one this PM

If Macleans starts pushing global warming articles, Harper may have a harder time propping up Tar Sands development. - Bad for Harper, Good for the world.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Thanks,

I'll pick up one this PM

If Macleans starts pushing global warming articles, Harper may have a harder time propping up Tar Sands development. - Bad for Harper, Good for the world.

It's the issue dated March 26th. For all I know it might not be on the shelves until this upcoming Monday or Tuesday (I have home delivery givne they hada deal where for $20 you got 6 issues plus a digital weather thermometer. Once it is out, you can't miss it. I'll be interested to hear your take on the full article.

[michsnowfreak]

I REALLY cannot stand articles like this. It does zero but set the cause even further behind because of expectations on both sides. So lets see it is a mini ice age or blazing? Whoever wrote that is a moron. Talk about hype. People who do not understand what drives our weather/climate need to just STFU.

The article was about 70% hilarious and 30% sad. I loved the "snowbanks so high" comment hahahaha. And it just makes the morons that try to write stories on climate change look all the more stupid. Reminds me SO much of the article I had from the late 1990s that talked about winter disappearing from MI (it was written in March 1998..ring a bell? following the mild winter of 97-98). Snowmobiling and such would be a thing of the past by like 2030 or something with winters like present-day (well 1990s present day) KY. LOL so what happens the next decade, winters got not only snowier than the 1990s, but WE JUST HAD OUR SNOWIEST 5-YEAR STRETCH ON RECORD lol, so now yes, its melting sea ice and increasing moisture in the air causing us to get MORE snow blah blah blah. These articles are always good for a big ole LOL.

Terry JUST posted the ice coverage since '72...did you not notice years of '72-76, 82-83, etc? And I would LOVE, and I mean LOVE, to find ice coverage for the same place to 1930. Its also very well-known that the late 1970s were a very unusual cold pattern that certainly skews any dataset with such a small sample size. The 1930s-1950s ice coverage would be a joke. Even in an area like Toronto that is out of my area of expertise (Detroit/southern MI) I know its complete bs to claim that winters used to ALWAYS be like that. That is the key word, ALWAYS. There is so much documentation about some of the insanely warm winters of yesteryear, and yet....it just flies RIGHT out the window when someone gets on their global warming horse to write a story like the one posted. The articles on the coming mini-ice age have more credence lol. THIS WINTER IS AN ANOMALY. IT IS NOT THE NORM ANY MORE THAN 1952-53 WAS THE NORM. Even if winters are warming in Canada, do you have ANY idea how much it would take for winter to "disappear" in Canada lol?

[PhillipS]

It's tough to get cold winters by Canadian standards with such a warm Arctic. That's why so many of the recent winters

have been mild. Sure you can still get an occasional winter that breaks even like 2009. It just makes milder winters

more likely than colder ones.

Last +AMO/-PDO era was much colder overall with the colder Arctic. Warmth mostly found over SE Canada.

Thank you for posting that sequence of winter anomaly plots - it really helped me appreciate the astounding warming in recent decades.

[Jonger]

Thank you for posting that sequence of winter anomaly plots - it really helped me appreciate the astounding warming in recent decades.

Astounding .2 to 1.5 degrees over most areas.

[bluewave]

Thank you for posting that sequence of winter anomaly plots - it really helped me appreciate the astounding warming in recent decades.

No problem. Some of the recent studies are helping to understand the processes involved.

http://www.nature.co...l/ngeo1285.html

[Jonger]

This comment cracks me up.

[PhillipS]

Astounding .2 to 1.5 degrees over most areas.

And as much as 6 degrees in other areas. I take it you don't find a 6 C rise in winter temps since the late 1940s to be astounding? Are there places that have seen a 6 C drop in winter temps over the same period?

[Snowstorms]

The article was about 70% hilarious and 30% sad. I loved the "snowbanks so high" comment hahahaha. And it just makes the morons that try to write stories on climate change look all the more stupid. Reminds me SO much of the article I had from the late 1990s that talked about winter disappearing from MI (it was written in March 1998..ring a bell? following the mild winter of 97-98). Snowmobiling and such would be a thing of the past by like 2030 or something with winters like present-day (well 1990s present day) KY. LOL so what happens the next decade, winters got not only snowier than the 1990s, but WE JUST HAD OUR SNOWIEST 5-YEAR STRETCH ON RECORD lol, so now yes, its melting sea ice and increasing moisture in the air causing us to get MORE snow blah blah blah. These articles are always good for a big ole LOL.

Terry JUST posted the ice coverage since '72...did you not notice years of '72-76, 82-83, etc? And I would LOVE, and I mean LOVE, to find ice coverage for the same place to 1930. Its also very well-known that the late 1970s were a very unusual cold pattern that certainly skews any dataset with such a small sample size. The 1930s-1950s ice coverage would be a joke. Even in an area like Toronto that is out of my area of expertise (Detroit/southern MI) I know its complete bs to claim that winters used to ALWAYS be like that. That is the key word, ALWAYS. There is so much documentation about some of the insanely warm winters of yesteryear, and yet....it just flies RIGHT out the window when someone gets on their global warming horse to write a story like the one posted. The articles on the coming mini-ice age have more credence lol. THIS WINTER IS AN ANOMALY. IT IS NOT THE NORM ANY MORE THAN 1952-53 WAS THE NORM. Even if winters are warming in Canada, do you have ANY idea how much it would take for winter to "disappear" in Canada lol?

The 20's thru the early 40's were quite warm and snow-less across a good part of the Great Lakes region. In fact we had one of the two warmest Winters in Toronto in a row; 1931-32 and 1932-33. Other Winters in the 30's that were quite warm were; 1936-37, 1937-38 and even 1938-39 was warmer than normal. There was no below avg Winters (DJF) in the 20's in Toronto yet we had 3 Winters that were quite below normal since 2000 (2002-03, 2008-09 and 2010-11).

The late 60's thru the 70's featured one of the greatest Winters of all time and perhaps the 20th century. Jan 94, was the coldest January in Toronto's history (>1937). In fact there were only two January's to come close enough to be in the top 10 prior to 1970 and they were, 1945 and 1940. The period from 1976-1980 remains as the coldest pair of Winters in a row.

I just dont see any "climate change" being observed across most of the Great Lakes region.

Prior to the Satellite era, coverage was much lower thus we couldnt properly examine land across a vast area but IMO lets see what ends up happening thru this decade since were far from any conclusion yet on climate. Dont ever confuse weather with climate.

[bluewave]

The 20's thru the early 40's were quite warm and snow-less across a good part of the Great Lakes region. In fact we had one of the two warmest Winters in Toronto in a row; 1931-32 and 1932-33. Other Winters in the 30's that were quite warm were; 1936-37, 1937-38 and even 1938-39 was warmer than normal. There was no below avg Winters (DJF) in the 20's in Toronto yet we had 3 Winters that were quite below normal since 2000 (2002-03, 2008-09 and 2010-11).

The late 60's thru the 70's featured one of the greatest Winters of all time and perhaps the 20th century. Jan 94, was the coldest January in Toronto's history (>1937). In fact there were only two January's to come close enough to be in the top 10 prior to 1970 and they were, 1945 and 1940. The period from 1976-1980 remains as the coldest pair of Winters in a row.

I just dont see any "climate change" being observed across most of the Great Lakes region.

Prior to the Satellite era, coverage was much lower thus we couldnt properly examine land across a vast area but IMO lets see what ends up happening thru this decade since were far from any conclusion yet on climate. Dont ever confuse weather with climate.

The most pronounced long term trend has been the February warming in the winters over the MW/ GL region.

February

DJF

[Jonger]

The most pronounced long term trend has been the February warming in the winters over the MW/ GL region.

February

DJF

This makes me convinced there is a bad measurement. This is showing a 7 degree jump over 100 years and a much more extreme yearly increase than Detroit numbers. I'm calling heat island on this.

[Jonger]

And as much as 6 degrees in other areas. I take it you don't find a 6 C rise in winter temps since the late 1940s to be astounding? Are there places that have seen a 6 C drop in winter temps over the same period?

Can you show me a NAO chart for the last 30 years.

[bluewave]

This makes me convinced there is a bad measurement. This is showing a 7 degree jump over 100 years and a much more extreme yearly increase than Detroit numbers. I'm calling heat island on this.

The US shows the same warming trend averaged out.

February US