Great Lakes ice loss at 71% since the early 1970s

[PhillipS]

My own area, which is within the great lakes at a similar latitude as your own... Has not shown an increase in temp.

http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

Take a look at Detroits averages on a monthly basis. They all hover around the same numbers. Stop using biased figures in a quest for the truth... Use your own eyes.

I never called you a liar, that would imply I harshly took offense to something you typed. You made a outlandish claim though in a winter that is an anomaly. It is very easy to find Toronto's year by year snowfall figures and see that your claim of there never being snow is disengeous.

Oh yes you did. Post #77, remember. In case you've forgotten, you wrote:

"I have seen the year by year numbers and that is FALSE. You just had a single winter that was notably above normal, next to several that were colder and snowier then normal.

Talk about being disingenuous."

Calling someone disingenuous is calling them false, deceitful and untruthful, i.e. a liar. Whether or not you know what the word 'disingenuous' means you were way out of line and should apologize. Particularly since in the same post you disingenuously claimed to have seen the "year by year numbers" for Terry's area when, as you've subsequently shown, you're simply talking out your backside.

[Jonger]

2008-09 and last year were colder than normal.

2007-08 was near normal and 2009-10 and this year are above normal. 05-06 and Dec-Jan 07 were above normal.

Winters like 02-03, 03-04 and even 04-05 were colder than normal for the most part, so I dont see where your getting your first sentence from.

Again, it seems like we had just as bad Winters back in the 20's thru perhaps the 50's so clearly, there is no trend being observed atleast in our region.

Yup.

And to address Terry, look... if you were truly offended at my remark about you being dishonest over observations in Galt.. I'm sorry.

You didn't mention a particular season and that threw me off... If you were talking about this winter, you were dead on.

[TerryM]

Yup.

And to address Terry, look... if you were truly offended at my remark about you being dishonest over observations in Galt.. I'm sorry.

You didn't mention a particular season and that threw me off... If you were talking about this winter, you were dead on.

Thanks

And yes, I was offended.

My contention was, and is, that in the Grand River valley, things have changed rather radically.

The reason, I suspect, is that we are transitioning through a period where a couple of degrees centigrade is enough to alter ice build-up on the river, a feature that has been in place at least since 1852.

I lived a good portion of my life in Southern California and Nevada. A similar change in temperature, particularly winter temperature, would go unnoticed by almost everyone. It's only in those locals where temperature changes are such that changes of phase possibly leading to amplification due to albedo change are going to be noticed.

If I lived a little south of here and the rivers often were ice free, change would be hard to see. If I lived far enough north that rivers still remain frozen, I again wouldn't necessarily note the change. It's also possible that if I hadn't moved away for so long the change would have gone unnoticed - boiled frogs and all that.

I live in exciting times, and in an exciting local - Damn those Chinese Philosophers!

[ORH_wxman]

When that flip occurs, the -AMO should be warmer than those in the past, just as the +AMO has been warmer than those in the recent past. Ocean heat content and surface temps have been rising in the mean.

There will be no rude awakening. Global temps will not fall over the next several decades. They will continue to rise as the oceans accumulate heat energy. The positive TOA energy imbalance assures us of that. PDO and AMO oscillate about the mean...as the mean continue on the rise.

Interesting Article

I didnt claim we'd return to temps of the past -AMO cycle...but those who are blaming nearly all of the recent warming on GHGs I think will see that it is flawed thinking.

[SVT450R]

Sorry but without a link I can't comprehend the message.

Are you saying that water at a certain speed will remain unfrozen if chilled below the freezing point - or that water, if undisturbed will freeze above this point?

Wouldn't formation of hail belie this?

Not sure what your confused about if a river is calm/normal flow it will freeze faster then a river that is flowing faster from excessive runoff etc. Maybe a met could chime in ill look for a link later tonight.

[TerryM]

Not sure what your confused about if a river is calm/normal flow it will freeze faster then a river that is flowing faster from excessive runoff etc. Maybe a met could chime in ill look for a link later tonight.

I was probably too sharp.

The freezing point of water has nothing to do with it's 'speed', what makes the difference is the lack of stratification that can occur in fast flowing waters. It's a common enough misconception, and a bugaboo of mine that I've been correcting for decades.

The river in question does have flow rate differences and these have been recorded since the early part of the last century. The problem here is not an altered flow rate (as would be evident in the almost stagnant pond above our local dam), but in the sustained difference in temperatures from one end of the valley to the other.

Ice breakers used to be called in to crush up the ice where the river debouched into Lake Erie, now a canoe can traverse the same passage at any time of year.

From ice breaker to canoe in less than one man's lifetime - that's exciting!

[Alpha5]

One region might be the same while the overall picture changed dramatically. This is not natural variance. Well I suppose, technically speaking it is. It is Natural Variance inside an overall warming trend.

So while someone's region may have a very similar winter in terms of temps and snow. that reduction of cold air is going to make it warmer over a long enough period. And since that cold air loss is continuing. That will continue to widen from the past to the future.

1975- coldest winter in the post 1950's US

2012- one of the warmest winters in post 1950's US

Why dont you take some averages, rather than picking out the extremes

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The temperatures have been on the rise with an increase in annual precipitation.

http://www.climateon.../datasheets.php

That link is actually a real eye opener.

Slightly off-topic, but does anyone know what CDA stands for in " Ottawa CDA "?

[PhillipS]

1975- coldest winter in the post 1950's US

2012- one of the warmest winters in post 1950's US

Why dont you take some averages, rather than picking out the extremes

Do you understand that the trend is not simply a line between endpoints - but rather an OLS fit of ALL of the points in the time period? And that the time period chosen was based on the full extent of the satellite record?

If you understand that then what ws your point?

[TerryM]

That link is actually a real eye opener.

Slightly off-topic, but does anyone know what CDA stands for in " Ottawa CDA "?

I assumed it was similar to GTA - but I was going to ask you for confirmation.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The PDO flipped back in 07-08 and this was confirmed by NOAA. The PDO has only been in a official negative phase for 4-5 years now....so not a very long time. It has a 20-40 year cycle and the AMO follows a similar cycle as well.

The AMO has been mainly/mostly positive since 1995. As ORH pointed out....your not going to see the effects right away, it will take time. Just as it took time for the Arctic to warm back in the 20's and 30's into the 40's. The AMO currently isn't deeply negative either, more so slightly negative. If it continues thru this Spring, it could have an impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Yes but the Winter snowfall hasnt declined but has increased. But again snow anomalies are highly variable and weather dependent and this theory also applies to ice anomalies across the Great Lakes region. Lake Ontario is quite deep thus it usually doesn't freeze over.

If/when the AMO flips combined with decreasing Solar activity, -PDO and more consistent La Nina's we should be able to atleast cool back to where we were back in the early 80's.

Official or not the pdo has been negative 61% of the time since 1998.

We just went through a massive solar min.

The early 1980s? No chance.

[Jonger]

Thanks

And yes, I was offended.

My contention was, and is, that in the Grand River valley, things have changed rather radically.

The reason, I suspect, is that we are transitioning through a period where a couple of degrees centigrade is enough to alter ice build-up on the river, a feature that has been in place at least since 1852.

I lived a good portion of my life in Southern California and Nevada. A similar change in temperature, particularly winter temperature, would go unnoticed by almost everyone. It's only in those locals where temperature changes are such that changes of phase possibly leading to amplification due to albedo change are going to be noticed.

If I lived a little south of here and the rivers often were ice free, change would be hard to see. If I lived far enough north that rivers still remain frozen, I again wouldn't necessarily note the change. It's also possible that if I hadn't moved away for so long the change would have gone unnoticed - boiled frogs and all that.

I live in exciting times, and in an exciting local - Damn those Chinese Philosophers!

It will be interesting to see what happens next year... I would like to see what happens to that river. This was the first year that we haven't had 2 uninterrupted months or safe walkable ice around here. We are talking about a winter WAY above normal.

I guess we will see.

[The_Global_Warmer]

1975- coldest winter in the post 1950's US

2012- one of the warmest winters in post 1950's US

Why dont you take some averages, rather than picking out the extremes

I really wasnt looking at the US. The entire cold pool has dramatically shrunk. It doesnt matter which year. The cold isnt coming back as long as the energy balance keeps rising.

[Jonger]

1975- coldest winter in the post 1950's US

2012- one of the warmest winters in post 1950's US

Why dont you take some averages, rather than picking out the extremes

Holy crap... that looks identical.

[CoastalWx]

Unfortunately, I don't believe that will be the case. The current warm period in the Arctic is much warmer than what happened during the previous one. The warmth has not diminished even as the PDO went negative and we went through an abnormally quiet solar period.

The previous warm cycle ran from about 1920 through 1954. The current warm period commenced in 1980 and continues. A comparison of those larger warm periods follows:

1920-1954:

Mean anomaly: +0.439°C

Coldest anomaly: -0.20°C

Warmest anomaly: +1.30°C

Years with cold anomalies: 6 (17%)

Years with warm anomalies: 29 (83%)

Most consecutive years with anomalies of +1.0°C or warmer: 2

All but one of the anomalies of +1.0°C or warmer occurred prior to the PDO flipping to a negative cycle.

1980-2011:

Mean anomaly: +0.795°C

Coldest anomaly: -0.33°C

Warmest anomaly: +2.23°C

Years with cold anomalies: 3 (9%)

Years with warm anomalies: 28 (91%)

Most consecutive years with anomalies of +1.0°C or warmer: 7 (ongoing); 9 of the last 10 years and 10 of the last 12 years have had anomalies of +1.0°C or warmer; the last two years have had anomalies of +2.0°C or warmer

Years with anomalies > +1.30°C (warmest during the 1920-54 period): 8 (25%) ***all since 1995***

Since the PDO flipped to a negative cycle around 2007 (still some uncertainty as to the precise timing of the flip), anomalies have remained above +1.0°C, with 3 of the 4 warmest readings, including the two warmest, since that time. The continuation of Arctic warming hints that the response to a cold PDO regime change could be more muted than it was in the past. If so, that would be consistent with a decoupling from the natural forcings that has been underway since the 1950s.

The single variable that has witnessed a continuing increase is the atmospheric concentration of CO2. IMO, Arctic warming is an expected consequence of that development, among others. From the IPCC (2007):

The areally averaged warming in the Arctic is projected to range from about 2°C to about 9°C by the year 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario. The projected warming is largest in the northern autumn and winter, and is largest over the polar oceans in areas of sea-ice loss.

The recent research indicating that the earth's energy imbalance persisted even in the face of the abnormally quiet solar period likely provides additional insight against the proposition that Arctic readings will return to the level of the early 1980s. I suspect the return of an AMO- will act as a restraint on Arctic warmth, perhaps even leading to a temporary medium-term decrease, but won't result in readings returning back to the level of the early 1980s.

Hey Don, where did you get those numbers if you don't mind me asking?

[bluewave]

Official or not the pdo has been negative 61% of the time since 1998.

We just went through a massive solar min.

The early 1980s? No chance.

The oceans have been warming so the Pacific is warmer now during this -PDO than during previous ones.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml

[SVT450R]

I was probably too sharp.

The freezing point of water has nothing to do with it's 'speed', what makes the difference is the lack of stratification that can occur in fast flowing waters. It's a common enough misconception, and a bugaboo of mine that I've been correcting for decades.

The river in question does have flow rate differences and these have been recorded since the early part of the last century. The problem here is not an altered flow rate (as would be evident in the almost stagnant pond above our local dam), but in the sustained difference in temperatures from one end of the valley to the other.

Ice breakers used to be called in to crush up the ice where the river debouched into Lake Erie, now a canoe can traverse the same passage at any time of year.

From ice breaker to canoe in less than one man's lifetime - that's exciting!

The motion of the water, too, can influence the temperature at which freezing will occur. Typically when a stream freezes you will notice the "shore" freezing first (where the water typically moves more slowly) and then the frozen area expanding outward towards the center of the stream/river. At a given temperature you should note a still body of water of a certain composition and depth will freeze faster than a comparable body of water in motion.

http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen01/gen01343.htm

[TerryM]

It will be interesting to see what happens next year... I would like to see what happens to that river. This was the first year that we haven't had 2 uninterrupted months or safe walkable ice around here. We are talking about a winter WAY above normal.

I guess we will see.

Do I understand correctly that you did have some safe ice this winter? If so that's lots better than here.

I'm curious as to how the farmers will make out without snow cover for the winter wheat, and whether the ground will be sufficiently moist when planting season comes. Most area farmers are Amish or Mennonite and have never irrigated.

[roardog]

I'm curious as to how the farmers will make out without snow cover for the winter wheat, and whether the ground will be sufficiently moist when planting season comes. Most area farmers are Amish or Mennonite and have never irrigated.

They'll probably make out the same as the last time there was a lack of Spring snow melt.

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014028/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014028.pdf

Interesting, I guess Terry's memory is sharp.

[roardog]

http://iopscience.io..._7_1_014028.pdf

Interesting, I guess Terry's memory is sharp.

How does this prove that the ice was frozen solid on rivers EVERY winter 50-60 years ago?

[Jonger]

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014028/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014028.pdf

Interesting, I guess Terry's memory is sharp.

I just needed to read the conclusion. Western Canada has had a decreased amount of skating days... The rest of Canada has had much less difference.

[TerryM]

The motion of the water, too, can influence the temperature at which freezing will occur. Typically when a stream freezes you will notice the "shore" freezing first (where the water typically moves more slowly) and then the frozen area expanding outward towards the center of the stream/river. At a given temperature you should note a still body of water of a certain composition and depth will freeze faster than a comparable body of water in motion.

http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen01/gen01343.htm

I wrote a number of really nasty missives - If you want to believe that water freezes at different temperatures depending on it's speed - go for it.

[The_Global_Warmer]

How does this prove that the ice was frozen solid on rivers EVERY winter 50-60 years ago?

I never said it did.

[Jonger]

Do I understand correctly that you did have some safe ice this winter? If so that's lots better than here.

I'm curious as to how the farmers will make out without snow cover for the winter wheat, and whether the ground will be sufficiently moist when planting season comes. Most area farmers are Amish or Mennonite and have never irrigated.

This was the warmest winter I have ever experienced. The last several winter were very much like the previous ones. When did you move back to Ontario? This winter was several degrees warmer then the previous winters. My friends and family who show little interest in weather repeatedly mentioned how warm this winter was... It's not a good year to compare to anything.

[Jonger]

I wrote a number of really nasty missives - If you want to believe that water freezes at different temperatures depending on it's speed - go for it.

If the river level is lower, it probably moves faster and would have more trouble freezing. Large rivers freeze like lakes, small ones rarely freeze. I'm implying nothing specific to that river... I have no idea what the level is today compared to the past.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I didnt claim we'd return to temps of the past -AMO cycle...but those who are blaming nearly all of the recent warming on GHGs I think will see that it is flawed thinking.

In the arctic the amo and the temperatures are longer in lockstep.

The divergence continues to grow larger as other feedbacks grow stronger.

I have no doubt there is a distinct thermocline cycle.

I just doubt its effects on the arctic I also doubt its ability to come in and bring much more than nuetral conditions expecially the further we go out in time.

Im sure you know more than me. Why would the amo need to be negative for a long period. wouldnt the sst affects on the atmosphere be in real time?

I would think a 5 year period of a -amo would yield enough continuous colder atmosphere to help the Earth cool. But even now we are seeing very little deviation from the warmth weather its neutral or positive.

[TerryM]

This was the warmest winter I have ever experienced. The last several winter were very much like the previous ones. When did you move back to Ontario? This winter was several degrees warmer then the previous winters. My friends and family who show little interest in weather repeatedly mentioned how warm this winter was... It's not a good year to compare to anything.

I moved back in the fall of 2004.

One winter since I've been back compared to those I knew in my youth. The wife and I followed the river down to Lake Erie to see what damage the full winter's ice had caused. Fairly extensive through most of the flood plane.

Other years except this one it would freeze for a short time, then thaw, then refreeze - not the same thing at all. This year it just didn't freeze - as you said - unusually warm.

I'm not sure you're correct in saying that this is not a good year to compare - it's certainly an outlier. In this area it will be remembered as the first year when the river did not freeze. If this happens again, and at some point children say that the river always had times when it didn't freeze, we'll be able to tell them no, that 2011/2012 was actually the first time that occurred.

Terry

[michsnowfreak]

This was the warmest winter I have ever experienced. The last several winter were very much like the previous ones. When did you move back to Ontario? This winter was several degrees warmer then the previous winters. My friends and family who show little interest in weather repeatedly mentioned how warm this winter was... It's not a good year to compare to anything.

This is a great point. I am the expert on our weather HERE and nearby American cities (not as familiar with the Canada side). This was one hell of a warm winter, there is ZERO denying this. Usually when old-timers recall winters of their youth, it has nothing to do with temps, and everything to do with "snow was up to here *places hand about 4 feet off the ground*". Which we have clearly proven to be 100% false to the fullest extent, and in fact winters are snowier now. In fact, take note that after the recent snowy winters, even these old timers have quieted down some. (Although I did hear someone, a 60-year old distant relative, remark at a gathering last winter say "this winters been rough, reminds me of winters when I was about 9 or 10"...LOL..I dont think so).

If you want to talk lakes freezing. Well, thats out of my league. I never pay much attention, and I have zero Idea where to access any such data for any nearby lakes. But what I CAN access is Detroits warmest winters list. Records began in 1870, and just 5 of the 20 warmest winters have occurred post-1960. Thats right, a ton of old-days winters high in the scorch list. Whats more, all of these winters are notorious for their warmth region-wide, not just Detroit. So I find it 100% impossible to believe that these winters had frozen lakes around this latitude when this winter did not. I was able to find Chicagos winters as well, tried for Minneapolis and Toronto, but no dice, I only found Minneapolis all-time warmest winter was "by far" 1877-78 (it was cited in an article that named 2011-12 the cities 4th warmest winter).

Since 1870...Detroits 20 Warmest Winters....15 of the 20 were pre-1960

01) 1881-82

02) 1931-32

03) 1889-90

04) 1997-98

05) 2001-02

06) 2011-12

07) 1982-83

08) 1879-80

09) 1918-19

10) 1952-53

11) 1877-78

12) 1948-49

13) 1920-21

14) 1875-76

15) 1953-54

16) 1949-50

17) 1932-33

18) 1905-06

19) 1991-92

20) 1959-60

Since 1872...Chicagos 20 Warmest Winters...14 of the 20 were pre-1960

01) 1877-78

02) 1931-32

03) 1879-80

04) 1881-82

05) 1889-90

06) 1875-76

07) 1997-98

08) 1918-19

09) 2011-12

10) 1920-21

11) 2001-02

12) 1930-31

13) 1953-54

14) 1952-53

15) 1982-83

16) 1908-09

17) 1905-06

18) 1991-92

19) 1931-32

20) 1998-99

[ORH_wxman]

This is a great point. I am the expert on our weather HERE and nearby American cities (not as familiar with the Canada side). This was one hell of a warm winter, there is ZERO denying this. Usually when old-timers recall winters of their youth, it has nothing to do with temps, and everything to do with "snow was up to here *places hand about 4 feet off the ground*". Which we have clearly proven to be 100% false to the fullest extent, and in fact winters are snowier now. In fact, take note that after the recent snowy winters, even these old timers have quieted down some. (Although I did hear someone, a 60-year old distant relative, remark at a gathering last winter say "this winters been rough, reminds me of winters when I was about 9 or 10"...LOL..I dont think so).

If you want to talk lakes freezing. Well, thats out of my league. I never pay much attention, and I have zero Idea where to access any such data for any nearby lakes. But what I CAN access is Detroits warmest winters list. Records began in 1870, and just 5 of the 20 warmest winters have occurred post-1960. Thats right, a ton of old-days winters high in the scorch list. Whats more, all of these winters are notorious for their warmth region-wide, not just Detroit. So I find it 100% impossible to believe that these winters had frozen lakes around this latitude when this winter did not. I was able to find Chicagos winters as well, tried for Minneapolis and Toronto, but no dice, I only found Minneapolis all-time warmest winter was "by far" 1877-78 (it was cited in an article that named 2011-12 the cities 4th warmest winter).

Since 1870...Detroits 20 Warmest Winters....15 of the 20 were pre-1960

01) 1881-82

02) 1931-32

03) 1889-90

04) 1997-98

05) 2001-02

06) 2011-12

07) 1982-83

08) 1879-80

09) 1918-19

10) 1952-53

11) 1877-78

12) 1948-49

13) 1920-21

14) 1875-76

15) 1953-54

16) 1949-50

17) 1932-33

18) 1905-06

19) 1991-92

20) 1959-60

Since 1872...Chicagos 20 Warmest Winters...14 of the 20 were pre-1960

01) 1877-78

02) 1931-32

03) 1879-80

04) 1881-82

05) 1889-90

06) 1875-76

07) 1997-98

08) 1918-19

09) 2011-12

10) 1920-21

11) 2001-02

12) 1930-31

13) 1953-54

14) 1952-53

15) 1982-83

16) 1908-09

17) 1905-06

18) 1991-92

19) 1931-32

20) 1998-99

6 of Boston's 10 warmest winters have been before 1955....5 of their top 6 snowiest winters have been since 1992. Their coldest January on record at Logan airport (since 1920) was 2004. So theres some freaky stats in there.