Great Lakes ice loss at 71% since the early 1970s

[OSUmetstud]

Lake Erie has not frozen over in at least 3 winters over the past 15 years. The relationship between snow, lake-effect snow, lake temp and ice cover is more complicated than what might expect. Buffalo's snowiest winter on record occurred when the lake froze over the earliest, ironically. (Large cracks can form during wind storms which still allow for some latent heat release). Very warm winters where the lack does not freeze or only freezes for a short period of time seems to be the condition which leads to the lowest snowfall.

[The_Global_Warmer]

GRR did a study on this and had a nice write up a few years back. Per them what has happened is we have seen a increase of snowfall inland ( locations like here for example saw a nice increase ) while those closer to the lake shore ( Muskegon ) saw a decrease. However they said the warmer summer/falls is what did the deed.

See above.

As Michsnowfreak mentioned the region as a whole saw much worse times back in the 30s/40s/50s and even early 60s for some. Back then you betted on below normal snowfall and above normal temps.

Pretty much.

1. the PDO has not been all the negative for too long and at last check the AMO was still positive unlike back in say the 70s. As anyone knows things don't happen on a flip of a dime. And the AMO does have a say in this matter.

In short.. When the AMO is negative for a few years alongside that -PDO and assuming the solar activity goes as forecasted ( low ) get back to me then and then lets see where we are.

The PDO has been negative 61% of the time since 1998.

The AMO has been neutral, some what above or slightly negative in many years since 2006(minus 2010) and the arctic has continued to rapidly warm and the ice has continued to rapidly decline by all measure and all types of ice. This year for instance the AMO dropped negative for two months while the Atlantic side torched and the ice is crippled there.

On top of that, Spring time North American and Northern Hemispheric snow cover has also declined dramatically the last few years, it will do so again this year.

I have no idea why we are talking about snow. I guess it has increased and it's a way to deflect from the warming and ice loss.

it is good to see Co2 is only rising at 2ppm per year right now and hasn't made any more substantial jumps. Even so, the impacts will continue to be felt and get stronger.

If all of the climate indicies are in alignment for max global cooling are you saying it will be like the 1970s again?

[ORH_wxman]

The PDO has been negative 61% of the time since 1998.

The AMO has been neutral, some what above or slightly negative in many years since 2006(minus 2010) and the arctic has continued to rapidly warm and the ice has continued to rapidly decline by all measure and all types of ice. This year for instance the AMO dropped negative for two months while the Atlantic side torched and the ice is crippled there.

On top of that, Spring time North American and Northern Hemispheric snow cover has also declined dramatically the last few years, it will do so again this year.

I have no idea why we are talking about snow. I guess it has increased and it's a way to deflect from the warming and ice loss.

it is good to see Co2 is only rising at 2ppm per year right now and hasn't made any more substantial jumps. Even so, the impacts will continue to be felt and get stronger.

If all of the climate indicies are in alignment for max global cooling are you saying it will be like the 1970s again?

The AMO is a long term signal...you like to use it on a short term basis which is wrong. It will go positive again before it drops into the negative range sometime during the 2020s. Its effects are not immediate...when it was in the long term positive phase back in the 1930s ands 1940s we saw significant arctic warming like we do now....the current warming is also underlayed on an AGW backround trend too so its is more extreme....but for people to think all of the current warming from the AMO is because of AGW are probably in for a rude awakening when it finally flips.

[CoastalWx]

The AMO is a long term signal...you like to use it on a short term basis which is wrong. It will go positive again before it drops into the negative range sometime during the 2020s. Its effects are not immediate...when it was in the long term positive phase back in the 1930s ands 1940s we saw significant arctic warming like we do now....the current warming is also underlayed on an AGW backround trend too so its is more extreme....but for people to think all of the current warming from the AMO is because of AGW are probably in for a rude awakening when it finally flips.

You'll start to see those effects on the East Coast summers where there is a correlation to temps there. Less of these torrid temps for the MA.

[michsnowfreak]

GRR did a study on this and had a nice write up a few years back. Per them what has happened is we have seen a increase of snowfall inland ( locations like here for example saw a nice increase ) while those closer to the lake shore ( Muskegon ) saw a decrease. However they said the warmer summer/falls is what did the deed.

As Michsnowfreak mentioned the region as a whole saw much worse times back in the 30s/40s/50s and even early 60s for some. Back then you betted on below normal snowfall and above normal temps.

People say, why are we talking about snow. Ummm....probably because like it or not, thats what the average joe uses when thinking about winter, and snow or its lack of is what makes people start right into that "back in the day...". But i can gladly take the temp game. And its even easier now that all data is free from NCDC! You can look at ANY city/station in the eastern half of the country up into Ontario from the 1930s-1950s and see that not only well BELOW normal snowfall dominated...but also see that ABOVE NORMAL temps dominated, ESPECIALLY in the winters and summers. I use the snow talk frequently because the low snow numbers across the board are just shocking (particularly 1930s-1940s), but its not to overshadow the overall temperatures. Yes, you will find a few cold winters in each of the above-mentioned decades...Im talking as a whole. And as a whole, its longevity is something that none of us born after 1960 have ever experienced.

[Snowstorms]

The PDO has been negative 61% of the time since 1998.

The AMO has been neutral, some what above or slightly negative in many years since 2006(minus 2010) and the arctic has continued to rapidly warm and the ice has continued to rapidly decline by all measure and all types of ice. This year for instance the AMO dropped negative for two months while the Atlantic side torched and the ice is crippled there.

On top of that, Spring time North American and Northern Hemispheric snow cover has also declined dramatically the last few years, it will do so again this year.

I have no idea why we are talking about snow. I guess it has increased and it's a way to deflect from the warming and ice loss.

it is good to see Co2 is only rising at 2ppm per year right now and hasn't made any more substantial jumps. Even so, the impacts will continue to be felt and get stronger.

If all of the climate indicies are in alignment for max global cooling are you saying it will be like the 1970s again?

The PDO flipped back in 07-08 and this was confirmed by NOAA. The PDO has only been in a official negative phase for 4-5 years now....so not a very long time. It has a 20-40 year cycle and the AMO follows a similar cycle as well.

The AMO has been mainly/mostly positive since 1995. As ORH pointed out....your not going to see the effects right away, it will take time. Just as it took time for the Arctic to warm back in the 20's and 30's into the 40's. The AMO currently isn't deeply negative either, more so slightly negative. If it continues thru this Spring, it could have an impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Yes but the Winter snowfall hasnt declined but has increased. But again snow anomalies are highly variable and weather dependent and this theory also applies to ice anomalies across the Great Lakes region. Lake Ontario is quite deep thus it usually doesn't freeze over.

If/when the AMO flips combined with decreasing Solar activity, -PDO and more consistent La Nina's we should be able to atleast cool back to where we were back in the early 80's.

[Vergent]

The PDO flipped back in 07-08 and this was confirmed by NOAA. The PDO has only been in a official negative phase for 4-5 years now....so not a very long time. It has a 20-40 year cycle and the AMO follows a similar cycle as well.

The AMO has been mainly/mostly positive since 1995. As ORH pointed out....your not going to see the effects right away, it will take time. Just as it took time for the Arctic to warm back in the 20's and 30's into the 40's. The AMO currently isn't deeply negative either, more so slightly negative. If it continues thru this Spring, it could have an impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Yes but the Winter snowfall hasnt declined but has increased. But again snow anomalies are highly variable and weather dependent and this theory also applies to ice anomalies across the Great Lakes region. Lake Ontario is quite deep thus it usually doesn't freeze over.

If/when the AMO flips combined with decreasing Solar activity, -PDO and more consistent La Nina's we should be able to atleast cool back to where we were back in the early 80's.

What solar system do you live in?

[TerryM]

People say, why are we talking about snow. Ummm....probably because like it or not, thats what the average joe uses when thinking about winter, and snow or its lack of is what makes people start right into that "back in the day...". But i can gladly take the temp game. And its even easier now that all data is free from NCDC! You can look at ANY city/station in the eastern half of the country up into Ontario from the 1930s-1950s and see that not only well BELOW normal snowfall dominated...but also see that ABOVE NORMAL temps dominated, ESPECIALLY in the winters and summers. I use the snow talk frequently because the low snow numbers across the board are just shocking (particularly 1930s-1940s), but its not to overshadow the overall temperatures. Yes, you will find a few cold winters in each of the above-mentioned decades...Im talking as a whole. And as a whole, its longevity is something that none of us born after 1960 have ever experienced.

Can you provide a link for the Ontario data?

I'm not familiar with the produce but would like to check Cambridge, Kitchener and Hamilton

Thanks

[bluewave]

Can you provide a link for the Ontario data?

I'm not familiar with the produce but would like to check Cambridge, Kitchener and Hamilton

Thanks

The temperatures have been on the rise with an increase in annual precipitation.

http://www.climateon.../datasheets.php

[donsutherland1]

If/when the AMO flips combined with decreasing Solar activity, -PDO and more consistent La Nina's we should be able to atleast cool back to where we were back in the early 80's.

Unfortunately, I don't believe that will be the case. The current warm period in the Arctic is much warmer than what happened during the previous one. The warmth has not diminished even as the PDO went negative and we went through an abnormally quiet solar period.

The previous warm cycle ran from about 1920 through 1954. The current warm period commenced in 1980 and continues. A comparison of those larger warm periods follows:

1920-1954:

Mean anomaly: +0.439°C

Coldest anomaly: -0.20°C

Warmest anomaly: +1.30°C

Years with cold anomalies: 6 (17%)

Years with warm anomalies: 29 (83%)

Most consecutive years with anomalies of +1.0°C or warmer: 2

All but one of the anomalies of +1.0°C or warmer occurred prior to the PDO flipping to a negative cycle.

1980-2011:

Mean anomaly: +0.795°C

Coldest anomaly: -0.33°C

Warmest anomaly: +2.23°C

Years with cold anomalies: 3 (9%)

Years with warm anomalies: 28 (91%)

Most consecutive years with anomalies of +1.0°C or warmer: 7 (ongoing); 9 of the last 10 years and 10 of the last 12 years have had anomalies of +1.0°C or warmer; the last two years have had anomalies of +2.0°C or warmer

Years with anomalies > +1.30°C (warmest during the 1920-54 period): 8 (25%) ***all since 1995***

Since the PDO flipped to a negative cycle around 2007 (still some uncertainty as to the precise timing of the flip), anomalies have remained above +1.0°C, with 3 of the 4 warmest readings, including the two warmest, since that time. The continuation of Arctic warming hints that the response to a cold PDO regime change could be more muted than it was in the past. If so, that would be consistent with a decoupling from the natural forcings that has been underway since the 1950s.

The single variable that has witnessed a continuing increase is the atmospheric concentration of CO2. IMO, Arctic warming is an expected consequence of that development, among others. From the IPCC (2007):

The areally averaged warming in the Arctic is projected to range from about 2°C to about 9°C by the year 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario. The projected warming is largest in the northern autumn and winter, and is largest over the polar oceans in areas of sea-ice loss.

The recent research indicating that the earth's energy imbalance persisted even in the face of the abnormally quiet solar period likely provides additional insight against the proposition that Arctic readings will return to the level of the early 1980s. I suspect the return of an AMO- will act as a restraint on Arctic warmth, perhaps even leading to a temporary medium-term decrease, but won't result in readings returning back to the level of the early 1980s.

[TerryM]

The temperatures have been on the rise with an increase in annual precipitation.

http://www.climateon.../datasheets.php

Great link!!

I knew that Hamilton had initiated some climate change mitigation efforts, but I didn't have access to the raw data.

Thanks

[bluewave]

Great link!!

I knew that Hamilton had initiated some climate change mitigation efforts, but I didn't have access to the raw data.

Thanks

No problem, that's a great site.

[WeatherRusty]

The AMO is a long term signal...you like to use it on a short term basis which is wrong. It will go positive again before it drops into the negative range sometime during the 2020s. Its effects are not immediate...when it was in the long term positive phase back in the 1930s ands 1940s we saw significant arctic warming like we do now....the current warming is also underlayed on an AGW backround trend too so its is more extreme....but for people to think all of the current warming from the AMO is because of AGW are probably in for a rude awakening when it finally flips.

When that flip occurs, the -AMO should be warmer than those in the past, just as the +AMO has been warmer than those in the recent past. Ocean heat content and surface temps have been rising in the mean.

There will be no rude awakening. Global temps will not fall over the next several decades. They will continue to rise as the oceans accumulate heat energy. The positive TOA energy imbalance assures us of that. PDO and AMO oscillate about the mean...as the mean continue on the rise.

Interesting Article

[TerryM]

No problem, that's a great site.

Taking the Ottawa records back to 1890 just makes those claiming 'it's just a phase' look silly. If it's a phase, the phase is over 120 yrs in the making. The fact that all the areas are roughly in agreement, whether urbanized or not belies the 'heat island' effect. The only possible way out would be to claim that this is a localized effect - but that argument will be hard to sustain since it requires documenting a large number of localities showing a cooling trend over time.

I think I've found documentation of ice jam floods for each year from 1852 until WW2 for the Grand River. I know I can document the date of the ice breakup in Galt from the mid 30's until the mid 60's.

At some point after that the river became unstable as far as freeze-up went, and this year it simply did not freeze.

I'm going to see if I can't find the first year since at least 1852 that the river did not stay frozen through the winter.

[SVT450R]

Taking the Ottawa records back to 1890 just makes those claiming 'it's just a phase' look silly. If it's a phase, the phase is over 120 yrs in the making. The fact that all the areas are roughly in agreement, whether urbanized or not belies the 'heat island' effect. The only possible way out would be to claim that this is a localized effect - but that argument will be hard to sustain since it requires documenting a large number of localities showing a cooling trend over time.

I think I've found documentation of ice jam floods for each year from 1852 until WW2 for the Grand River. I know I can document the date of the ice breakup in Galt from the mid 30's until the mid 60's.

At some point after that the river became unstable as far as freeze-up went, and this year it simply did not freeze.

I'm going to see if I can't find the first year since at least 1852 that the river did not stay frozen through the winter.

As mentioned on the previous page the flow of the river will contribute to it's freeze or lack of. If the river is moving faster then normal because of runoff etc it will take longer time to freeze up and that will vary from year to year.

[TerryM]

As mentioned on the previous page the flow of the river will contribute to it's freeze or lack of. If the river is moving faster then normal because of runoff etc it will take longer time to freeze up and that will vary from year to year.

Sorry but without a link I can't comprehend the message.

Are you saying that water at a certain speed will remain unfrozen if chilled below the freezing point - or that water, if undisturbed will freeze above this point?

Wouldn't formation of hail belie this?

[Jonger]

No snow of any type in southern Ontario - Here we never had more than a few inches, and it never lasted more than a few days. The river never froze over, ponds remained open, things just never got cold.

Very different than 50 years ago.

I have seen the year by year numbers and that is FALSE. You just had a single winter that was notably above normal, next to several that were colder and snowier then normal.

Talk about being disingenuous.

[TerryM]

I have seen the year by year numbers and that is FALSE. You just had a single winter that was notably above normal, next to several that were colder and snowier then normal.

Talk about being disingenuous.

Show me a link to the numbers.

[Jonger]

Show me a link to the numbers.

My numbers will be for Michigan. I just looked at that link from Ontario and noticed that they show a curve upward for less then .3 degrees since 1980. 1970's numbers were an anomaly on the 100 year scale.

[Jonger]

That tough part is that all those sites are in cities. I wish I could go back in time and setup some remote sites that arent tainted by growth.

[TerryM]

My numbers will be for Michigan. I just looked at that link from Ontario and noticed that they show a curve upward for less then .3 degrees since 1980. 1970's numbers were an anomaly on the 100 year scale.

I don't care about Michigan - You called me a liar and said you could prove it

I won't accept diversions, I won't accept more invented revelations.

An apology should be forthcoming.

[Jonger]

I'm sure there was no increase in UHI around this sensor in Hamilton,On.

[Jonger]

I don't care about Michigan - You called me a liar and said you could prove it

I won't accept diversions, I won't accept more invented revelations.

An apology should be forthcoming.

That is why I focused on the Climate Ontario link in my recent posts. It shows a 1970-2010 increase in the realm of .7 to 1.8 degrees C.

[TerryM]

And what pray tell would this have to do with my area?

You called me a liar and I want an apology

You said you had seen the year by year figures - but you haven't - you just made that up.

Then you called me a liar based on your made up data.

[Jonger]

And what pray tell would this have to do with my area?

You called me a liar and I want an apology

You said you had seen the year by year figures - but you haven't - you just made that up.

Then you called me a liar based on your made up data.

My own area, which is within the great lakes at a similar latitude as your own... Has not shown an increase in temp.

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDET/1960/1/14/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Take a look at Detroits averages on a monthly basis. They all hover around the same numbers. Stop using biased figures in a quest for the truth... Use your own eyes.

I never called you a liar, that would imply I harshly took offense to something you typed. You made a outlandish claim though in a winter that is an anomaly. It is very easy to find Toronto's year by year snowfall figures and see that your claim of there never being snow is disengeous.

[Jonger]

Whats Ironic on that link I just sent you.... January 1948 and January 2012 in Detroit are the same exact monthly temps... Thats the most recent and farthest back numbers in the scroll bar available.

EDIT

Sorry that was 1949... 1948 was really cold actually.

[A-L-E-K]

Jonger is busting out refuted talking points from years ago...this is what happens when new wingnuts wander over here

[Jonger]

Jonger is busting out refuted talking points from years ago...this is what happens when new wingnuts wander over here

Why is climate change automatically associated with politics. I'm a pretty centrist guy.

[TerryM]

Why is climate change automatically associated with politics. I'm a pretty centrist guy.

'Centrist guy's' don't usually make up data, call others liars and refuse to apologize when confronted.

Spouting inanities about cities far from here, posting data from time periods that are not in contention. I suppose the attempt is to distract from the fact that you claimed to have seen 'the year by year numbers" - then admitted on the next post that you had not - without offering an apology.

It really isn't acceptable to just make things up, pretend they are true, and use this data to fault another.

You've already admitted you hadn't seen the data that you claimed you had.

An apology shouldn't be that much harder to face.

[Jonger]

'Centrist guy's' don't usually make up data, call others liars and refuse to apologize when confronted.

Spouting inanities about cities far from here, posting data from time periods that are not in contention. I suppose the attempt is to distract from the fact that you claimed to have seen 'the year by year numbers" - then admitted on the next post that you had not - without offering an apology.

It really isn't acceptable to just make things up, pretend they are true, and use this data to fault another.

You've already admitted you hadn't seen the data that you claimed you had.

An apology shouldn't be that much harder to face.

You live probably 150 miles from me. I have seen the numbers and they don't vary by much if any. Do you really think thats going to matter much with snowfall anyhow. You stated that we don't see snow like we did 50 years ago... That lakes don't freeze anymore... That isnt correct.

I apologize for claiming to know Hamilton,Ontarios year by year numbers. I know the region, I live here.