Great Lakes ice loss at 71% since the early 1970s

[michsnowfreak]

Can I ask for your sources?

His source would be every climate station in the Great Lakes region, wrt 1952-53. That winter was much more snowless and just as warm as this has been over this region. From everything Ive ever looked at, if you want a benchmark "year without a winter" that spans not just one area of part of a region but an entire half of the country, than 1952-53 would be your winner.

[TerryM]

His source would be every climate station in the Great Lakes region, wrt 1952-53. That winter was much more snowless and just as warm as this has been over this region. From everything Ive ever looked at, if you want a benchmark "year without a winter" that spans not just one area of part of a region but an entire half of the country, than 1952-53 would be your winner.

Thanks

Apparently, the last few winters have been even warmer in Ontario. Snow isn't a great indicator of much as it's more ephemeral than ice. The situation here along the Grand River is one in which ice buildup is becoming a sometimes thing, where previously it was a given. When added to the 71% loss in Great Lakes ice it seems to confirm the climatic shift we are experiencing.

A friend doing some middle woodlands archaeology at a riverbank site downstream from here confirms yearly inundations that can be read almost as clearly as varves, indicating yearly ice dam flooding prior to 500 CE. It might be fun to see what other records exist.

[Snowstorms]

Thanks

Apparently, the last few winters have been even warmer in Ontario. Snow isn't a great indicator of much as it's more ephemeral than ice. The situation here along the Grand River is one in which ice buildup is becoming a sometimes thing, where previously it was a given. When added to the 71% loss in Great Lakes ice it seems to confirm the climatic shift we are experiencing.

A friend doing some middle woodlands archaeology at a riverbank site downstream from here confirms yearly inundations that can be read almost as clearly as varves, indicating yearly ice dam flooding prior to 500 CE. It might be fun to see what other records exist.

2008-09 and last year were colder than normal.

2007-08 was near normal and 2009-10 and this year are above normal. 05-06 and Dec-Jan 07 were above normal.

Winters like 02-03, 03-04 and even 04-05 were colder than normal for the most part, so I dont see where your getting your first sentence from.

Again, it seems like we had just as bad Winters back in the 20's thru perhaps the 50's so clearly, there is no trend being observed atleast in our region.

[TerryM]

2008-09 and last year were colder than normal.

2007-08 was near normal and 2009-10 and this year are above normal. 05-06 and Dec-Jan 07 were above normal.

Winters like 02-03, 03-04 and even 04-05 were colder than normal for the most part, so I dont see where your getting your first sentence from.

Again, it seems like we had just as bad Winters back in the 20's thru perhaps the 50's so clearly, there is no trend being observed atleast in our region.

Again you didn't provide links.

In response let me offer this as a 2000-2009 anomaly graphic

Sure looks warmer ;>)

[The_Global_Warmer]

One region might be the same while the overall picture changed dramatically. This is not natural variance. Well I suppose, technically speaking it is. It is Natural Variance inside an overall warming trend.

So while someone's region may have a very similar winter in terms of temps and snow. that reduction of cold air is going to make it warmer over a long enough period. And since that cold air loss is continuing. That will continue to widen from the past to the future.

[TerryM]

2008-09 and last year were colder than normal.

2007-08 was near normal and 2009-10 and this year are above normal. 05-06 and Dec-Jan 07 were above normal.

Winters like 02-03, 03-04 and even 04-05 were colder than normal for the most part, so I dont see where your getting your first sentence from.

Again, it seems like we had just as bad Winters back in the 20's thru perhaps the 50's so clearly, there is no trend being observed atleast in our region.

No, it's hard to make it out, but I'd swear that the red line is rising towards the right on the chart. 2008/2009 was cooler than it had been for a few years - but never quite got down to normal. Matter of fact it looks like you have to go back to 1996 before you crack normal

And they seem to indicate a 2.8C increase over the last 64 years buried away in their text.

I know Hamilton has been experiencing a more rapid change according to their climate change initiative. Hamilton is of course comparatively a small area, but it's quite close to the area of my concern and does front on the lake.I don't have their figures handy.

Your postulated hot spell from the 20's through the 50's does not seem to be holding up. If you have any data I'd be glad to see it.

It seems likely that had they extended their studies back to the 50's, they would have found an even greater loss than the 71% loss they documented.

[Scuddz]

perfect timing:

http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/icechat.aspx

[Snowstorms]

No, it's hard to make it out, but I'd swear that the red line is rising towards the right on the chart. 2008/2009 was cooler than it had been for a few years - but never quite got down to normal. Matter of fact it looks like you have to go back to 1996 before you crack normal

And they seem to indicate a 2.8C increase over the last 64 years buried away in their text.

I know Hamilton has been experiencing a more rapid change according to their climate change initiative. Hamilton is of course comparatively a small area, but it's quite close to the area of my concern and does front on the lake.I don't have their figures handy.

Your postulated hot spell from the 20's through the 50's does not seem to be holding up. If you have any data I'd be glad to see it.

It seems likely that had they extended their studies back to the 50's, they would have found an even greater loss than the 71% loss they documented.

If you look at the graph above...the trend was flat-slightly negative from 1945-1975 when the PDO was negative and then a uptick when the PDO flipped into its warmer phase. But since the PDO shifted back in 07-08, temps have been up and down as you can see above.

A few questions; Is that graph seasonally or DJF only?

Here's DJF 2009;

You can see, the greatest warm anomalies were present across far Northern Canada as a result of the -NAO/-AO anomaly but most regions south of the Northern Terrorties were below normal. Last Winter was similar, just not as extreme.

Based on my analysis across SONT, I havent seen any sort of climate change. Here's the decadal snowfall trend since 1900 at Toronto;

2000-2010: 138.0cm

1990-2000: 124.1cm

1980-1990: 121.4cm

1970-1980: 150.1cm

1960-1970: 131.5cm

1950-1960: 138.2cm

1940-1950: 150.1cm

1930-1940: 129.6cm

1920-1930: 135.6cm

1910-1920: 151.2cm

1900-1910: 145.8cm

Seems like nothing more than a up and down trend. The Winters during the last cold PDO and cold AMO regime were quite cold and snowy across our region but as you can see above, when the PDO shifted we see a sharp decline in snowfall due to increased warm anomalies but since 2000 that has changed and we are once again above normal. If you look at DTW, BOS and MKE...you'd notice they're least snowfall Winters were under 50cm yet our death mark is 52cm, so why cant we have one Winter below 50cm?

[donsutherland1]

Snowstorms,

I believe the chart he posted is for the entire year, not DJF. Also, his chart uses the 1961-90 base period while yours uses the 1981-10 base period. The latter base period is warmer than the former one by 0.3°C to 0.4°C across southern Ontario and > 0.5°C across a large part of central and northern Ontario.

Also, regardless of AO-/AO+, the Arctic has warmed substantially. Even the former cold AO+ setup (cold for the Arctic region) is notably warmer than it had been in the past. IMO, the less harsh cold in the Arctic and less expansive cold there has some downstream impact (less frequent and less severe Arctic outbreaks). A warmer source region does not have no impact. Nonetheless, warming is most apparent in the Arctic region. Climate data sets also show that the most aggressive warming has occurred in the Arctic.

Snowfall is a different matter. Precipitation and temperature contribute to snowfall anomalies. If precipitation rises and it is sufficiently cold for snow, snowfall will increase, even if the temperature is warmer than it had been in the past.

[Snowstorms]

Snowstorms,

I believe the chart he posted is for the entire year, not DJF. Also, his chart uses the 1961-90 base period while yours uses the 1981-10 base period. The latter base period is warmer than the former one by 0.3°C to 0.4°C across southern Ontario and > 0.5°C across a large part of central and northern Ontario.

Also, regardless of AO-/AO+, the Arctic has warmed substantially. Even the former cold AO+ setup (cold for the Arctic region) is notably warmer than it had been in the past. IMO, the less harsh cold in the Arctic and less expansive cold there has some downstream impact (less frequent and less severe Arctic outbreaks). A warmer source region does not have no impact. Nonetheless, warming is most apparent in the Arctic region. Climate data sets also show that the most aggressive warming has occurred in the Arctic.

Snowfall is a different matter. Precipitation and temperature contribute to snowfall anomalies. If precipitation rises and it is sufficiently cold for snow, snowfall will increase, even if the temperature is warmer than it had been in the past.

Yes, amazing post but we was complaining about the lack of snowfall this Winter so I had to show him the data to rectify his words.

The Arctic has warmed, there's no doubt about that but I refuse to believe the main source of the warming Arctic is mostly because of AGW as they are many variables left to analyze but the warming anomalies across the Arctic has prevented the Sea ice from growing fully seasonally. The consistent +AO anomaly from the 80's thru the 90's destroyed the Beaufort Gyre thus allowing for decent flushing of the MY Sea Ice and keeping the Ice layer thin and that seems to be main culprit IMO for the sharp decline in the Ice anomaly but again there are other factors as well.

EC uses the 1971-2000 base period when they compare anomalies regionally across the area and based on that 2008-09 was colder than normal overall for DJF.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The fact is that the greatest changes have taken palce in the high latitudes. I think 2009-2010 was a prime example of this. The uS was way below average temperature wise that year, as was much of western Europe and yet the placess that have traditionally been cold, such as labrador and northern Canada were torching.

Very mild winters such as those of 1905-1906 and 1952-53 have occurred in the past, but they really stuck out like a sore thumb. Now it seems to be the opposite. For example, 2002-2003 really sticks out over this past decade as having been a very cold winter due to the fact that the winters surrounding weren't that cold. January 2004 was cold, but December 2003 was a torch, for example. Also, 2007-2008 wasactually quite a mild winter in eastern Canada - one which simply a lot of snow.

Essentially, if you're a betting person, you'd bet on a warmer than average winter in this day and age.

Even if a fading El Nino transitions into a weak El Nino next winter, as in 1976, the same set up will likely produce a winter that is not as cold as 1976-77, despite there being similar water signatures for the simple fact that, as Don as stated, there is not as much cold air in the Arctic to work with.

Despite all I've said, I don't agree with the whole "river used to freeze every year" thing. If you had tried to set up a back yard hockey rink in 1973-75 or 1974-75, you would have hada tough time doing so in southern ontario.

[TerryM]

The fact is that the greatest changes have taken palce in the high latitudes. I think 2009-2010 was a prime example of this. The uS was way below average temperature wise that year, as was much of western Europe and yet the placess that have traditionally been cold, such as labrador and northern Canada were torching.

Very mild winters such as those of 1905-1906 and 1952-53 have occurred in the past, but they really stuck out like a sore thumb. Now it seems to be the opposite. For example, 2002-2003 really sticks out over this past decade as having been a very cold winter due to the fact that the winters surrounding weren't that cold. January 2004 was cold, but December 2003 was a torch, for example. Also, 2007-2008 wasactually quite a mild winter in eastern Canada - one which simply a lot of snow.

Essentially, if you're a betting person, you'd bet on a warmer than average winter in this day and age.

Even if a fading El Nino transitions into a weak El Nino next winter, as in 1976, the same set up will likely produce a winter that is not as cold as 1976-77, despite there being similar water signatures for the simple fact that, as Don as stated, there is not as much cold air in the Arctic to work with.

Despite all I've said, I don't agree with the whole "river used to freeze every year" thing. If you had tried to set up a back yard hockey rink in 1973-75 or 1974-75, you would have hada tough time doing so in southern ontario.

Could be I was living in Southern California at that time - my contention is that from the 40's thru 1963 the river always froze, and that this is no longer true,

[roardog]

The problem is people trust their memories too much which are often false.

[bluewave]

The last negative departure winter for Canada was all the way back in 1994, though 2009 came close.

The big story is all of the warmest winters that you guys have racked up especially since the late 90's.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=24F82736-1

[NEOH]

The problem is people trust their memories too much which are often false.

You make a valid point. Not that the memories are entirely false, but most likely exaggerated. When I was 8 yrs old a 6 inch storm seemed like 2 feet of snow. "I remember when" just doesn't hold up when you look at the stats.

[SVT450R]

The scientists observed that ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable from year to year. The scientists attribute the variability in ice cover to natural climate forcing patterns that result from impacts of the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation on surface air temperatures in the region. They note that long-term trends in Great Lakes ice cover may also possibly be related to global climate warming.

[TerryM]

The chart was National in scope, is based on 1961-1990 and is for the DJF period.

Snow cover, as was posted some days ago is not a marker for anything except the presence of snow.

Ice, on the other hand, because of the dampening effect of the freeze-thaw cycle could prove to have some value. When I'm comparing conditions here to conditions as they were 50 yrs ago I'm concerning myself with the state of the ice in rivers, ponds and lakes. - I just b**ch about the snow

While global warming has had more effect to date in the far north (as predicted by Hansen back in 1988), The warming effect along the north shores of the Great Lakes is certainly quantifiable and noticeable. Ice conditions in the Arctic have been an interest of mine for the last few years, and while not as dramatic perhaps as an ice free Port Dover, the end of regular Toronto Harbor ice boat regattas, the early removal of the Niagara ice boom,or a year round unfrozen Grand River, they are of course much larger in scope.

If anyone wants to explain away these changes using ENSO, AO, NAO or the like they have to prove a period in the past when conditions were warmer than those that we are now experiencing. I'm afraid that mentioning 1952/53 when the temperatures in Cleveland were the 10th warmest hardly qualifies.

If we want to continue why don't we agree to post charts / links for our future assertions.

http://dynaweb.cis.e...zey=600〈=en

[TerryM]

The last negative departure winter for Canada was all the way back in 1994, though 2009 came close.

The big story is all of the warmest winters that you guys have racked up especially since the late 90's.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/...En&n=24F82736-1

Nice find - I was surprised at the inclusion of 1960 in 7th place.

[TerryM]

Yes, amazing post but we was complaining about the lack of snowfall this Winter so I had to show him the data to rectify his words.

The Arctic has warmed, there's no doubt about that but I refuse to believe the main source of the warming Arctic is mostly because of AGW as they are many variables left to analyze but the warming anomalies across the Arctic has prevented the Sea ice from growing fully seasonally. The consistent +AO anomaly from the 80's thru the 90's destroyed the Beaufort Gyre thus allowing for decent flushing of the MY Sea Ice and keeping the Ice layer thin and that seems to be main culprit IMO for the sharp decline in the Ice anomaly but again there are other factors as well.

EC uses the 1971-2000 base period when they compare anomalies regionally across the area and based on that 2008-09 was colder than normal overall for DJF.

Thanks

The fact that a 30 yr base period has moved higher over a decade certainly adds weight to my point.

[SVT450R]

The chart was National in scope, is based on 1961-1990 and is for the DJF period.

Snow cover, as was posted some days ago is not a marker for anything except the presence of snow.

Ice, on the other hand, because of the dampening effect of the freeze-thaw cycle could prove to have some value. When I'm comparing conditions here to conditions as they were 50 yrs ago I'm concerning myself with the state of the ice in rivers, ponds and lakes. - I just b**ch about the snow

While global warming has had more effect to date in the far north (as predicted by Hansen back in 1988), The warming effect along the north shores of the Great Lakes is certainly quantifiable and noticeable. Ice conditions in the Arctic have been an interest of mine for the last few years, and while not as dramatic perhaps as an ice free Port Dover, the end of regular Toronto Harbor ice boat regattas, the early removal of the Niagara ice boom,or a year round unfrozen Grand River, they are of course much larger in scope.

If anyone wants to explain away these changes using ENSO, AO, NAO or the like they have to prove a period in the past when conditions were warmer than those that we are now experiencing. I'm afraid that mentioning 1952/53 when the temperatures in Cleveland were the 10th warmest hardly qualifies.

If we want to continue why don't we agree to post charts / links for our future assertions.

http://dynaweb.cis.e...zey=600〈=en

I'm no expert but wouldn't the flow of the river contribute to it's freeze or lack of?

[donsutherland1]

EC uses the 1971-2000 base period when they compare anomalies regionally across the area and based on that 2008-09 was colder than normal overall for DJF.

Winter 2008-09 was colder than normal. However, neither 2008 nor 2009 (whole year) were colder than normal.

[michsnowfreak]

The scientists observed that ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable from year to year. The scientists attribute the variability in ice cover to natural climate forcing patterns that result from impacts of the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation on surface air temperatures in the region. They note that long-term trends in Great Lakes ice cover may also possibly be related to global climate warming.

Cycles in Great Lakes climate show that a warm cycle was present during the 1930s thru the first half of the 1960s, then later in the 1960s on into the 1970s and 1980s a colder cycle took over. This does not mean that every winter in the mild cycle was mild, or every winter in the cold cycle was cold. It would be interesting to see what ice levels were in the 1930s-1950s.

Hell, if a slight increase in temperature causes more snow for those of us in the north, I say bring it on lol!

A few interesting trends I noticed for Detroit. Snowfall and precipitation have been increasing as of late, winter has been harsher in its DJF core, but the beginning and end of what we would consider winter (Nov and Mar/Apr) have been getting milder. The 2000s had the warmest Marches, Aprils, and Novembers of all decades since the 1870s. Likewise, the coldest Novembers and Aprils were the 1870s. The 2000s averaged less November snow than any previous decade, but January snowfall in the 2000s was the highest of any decade. So by this theory, we can loosely generalize that winters here are not as long as they used to be, but in their core are harsher than they used to be (note that average DJF temps are middle of the pack, not the coldest, not the warmest). The 1930s saw the warmest Januaries, nearly 1.5 degrees warmer than the 2nd warmest Januaries, which were the 1950s. The 1930s also hold the grand prize for hottest Julys and Augusts on record. So lets see, the hottest Januarys, Julys, and Augusts, and the 3rd least snowy decade since 1880....no wonder the 1930s were The Depression

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The last negative departure winter for Canada was all the way back in 1994, though 2009 came close.

The big story is all of the warmest winters that you guys have racked up especially since the late 90's.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/...En&n=24F82736-1

Wow, that is an interesting find, especially when you consider how warm the winters have been over the past 10 years.

1994 was likely in part due to the effects of Mount Pinatubo.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Could the fact that so many weather stations are in urban areas have an impact? Take Pearson airport in Toronto for example. Back in 1938, when they started taking records, it was basically surrounded by open fields. Now it's in the centre of an urban area. Mind, you the downtown Toronto readings have also warmed up over the past couple of decadesand that's always been urabn going back to the 19th century.

While i do believe that we will enter a colder cycle over the next 30 years, I do not believe temperatures will return to levels seen in the 60s and 70s. I thin kit unlikely we will see a series of winters as cold as the 1975-1985 period again, and by series I mean back-to back like 1976-1977, 1977-1978 and 1978-1979.

[Snowstorms]

Wow, that is an interesting find, especially when you consider how warm the winters have been over the past 10 years.

1994 was likely in part due to the effects of Mount Pinatubo.

Highly unlikely. Tropical Volcanoes have a tendency to effect temperatures during the Spring/Summer Months rather than Winter months plus Pinatubo erupted back in 1991, dont you think we would have seen the effects of Pinatubo with the two winters prior to 93-94? The effects of Pinatubo were visible during the Summer of 1992 when it was unusually cooler and wetter than normal across the region.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yes, amazing post but we was complaining about the lack of snowfall this Winter so I had to show him the data to rectify his words.

The Arctic has warmed, there's no doubt about that but I refuse to believe the main source of the warming Arctic is mostly because of AGW as they are many variables left to analyze but the warming anomalies across the Arctic has prevented the Sea ice from growing fully seasonally. The consistent +AO anomaly from the 80's thru the 90's destroyed the Beaufort Gyre thus allowing for decent flushing of the MY Sea Ice and keeping the Ice layer thin and that seems to be main culprit IMO for the sharp decline in the Ice anomaly but again there are other factors as well.

EC uses the 1971-2000 base period when they compare anomalies regionally across the area and based on that 2008-09 was colder than normal overall for DJF.

This did happen. The AO+ this year has completely destroyed the MYI again.

But The Consistent AO didn't melt out the Canadian Archipelago which now see's a near complete melt out. Ice that was 10+ years old and 50-100 meters thick from years of ridging has melted out completely. The Glaciers in the region mostly around 80-83N and others on Greenland have seen continued acceleration since the 90s in their melting. Some losing 50 percent of their ice mass in the last decade.

Like the Great Lakes the Hudson Bay Ice Mass Balance and freeze and melt dates is changing rapidly. Regardless of natural variance over a long enough period those water bodies have continued to show more ice free time.

And lastly arctic and Northern Canadian Temps, and Siberia have all continued to warm faster and faster.

We just went through a -PDO and solar Min and these areas are losing more ice and getting rapidly warmer.

If it's not Global Warming then it must be?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This did happen. The AO+ this year has completely destroyed the MYI again.

But The Consistent AO didn't melt out the Canadian Archipelago which now see's a near complete melt out. Ice that was 10+ years old and 50-100 meters thick from years of ridging has melted out completely. The Glaciers in the region mostly around 80-83N and others on Greenland have seen continued acceleration since the 90s in their melting. Some losing 50 percent of their ice mass in the last decade.

Like the Great Lakes the Hudson Bay Ice Mass Balance and freeze and melt dates is changing rapidly. Regardless of natural variance over a long enough period those water bodies have continued to show more ice free time.

And lastly arctic and Northern Canadian Temps, and Siberia have all continued to warm faster and faster.

We just went through a -PDO and solar Min and these areas are losing more ice and getting rapidly warmer.

If it's not Global Warming then it must be?

Interesting points. Do you think we could simply be heading back to a climate era similar to the Medieval Warm Period?

[michsnowfreak]

Could the fact that so many weather stations are in urban areas have an impact? Take Pearson airport in Toronto for example. Back in 1938, when they started taking records, it was basically surrounded by open fields. Now it's in the centre of an urban area. Mind, you the downtown Toronto readings have also warmed up over the past couple of decadesand that's always been urabn going back to the 19th century.

While i do believe that we will enter a colder cycle over the next 30 years, I do not believe temperatures will return to levels seen in the 60s and 70s. I thin kit unlikely we will see a series of winters as cold as the 1975-1985 period again, and by series I mean back-to back like 1976-1977, 1977-1978 and 1978-1979.

Absolutely. UHI affects low temps much more than high temps, so much of the warming in the mean temps has to do with the lows, not the highs. At Detroit, the station was moved from the city to the suburbs in the 1960s, which briefly was a great radiating place, but UHI has taken over majorly to the point that present-day DTW being in the burbs is probably a worse radiator than Detroit City from 60+ years ago. Station location, UHI, etc...even when ALL factors are put aside, when looking at the mean yearly temp broken down by decade since at Detroit 1880, the warmest decade and coldest decade span a grand total of 2.0F degrees. I suspect if you would use temps at a constant location since 1880 that is no more builtup now than then, the difference would definitely be less. Bottom line, from a strictly sensible weather standpoint, the general climate of Detroit, though it has gone through cycles with minor tweaks as mentioned above (harsher but shorter winters in the 2000s, abnormally hot summers and warm winters in the 1930s, etc)....is generally no different now than it was when records began some 140 years ago.

[Harry]

That's a complicated thing to answer. Less ice = more open water and therefore more snow if cold air hits, but if there's no ice where's the cold air in the first place. There's probably some optimal balance between the amount of open water and the amount of cold air passing over the lake, too much ice and there's no moisture for LES, and too little cold air you get less LES in the first place.

It probably depends from year to year considering.

GRR did a study on this and had a nice write up a few years back. Per them what has happened is we have seen a increase of snowfall inland ( locations like here for example saw a nice increase ) while those closer to the lake shore ( Muskegon ) saw a decrease. However they said the warmer summer/falls is what did the deed.

Think about it this way. If it was cold enough to create lots of lake effect snow, it would be cold enough to make ice on the lakes. Sure, it could lead to isolated out-of-season lake events, but overall, if it's cold, you get ice and it cuts of LES, if its warm, there's more open water, but it too warm for LES.

Generally, this would only effect Erie anyway, since large portions of the remaining lakes do not freeze over for extended periods of time.

See above.

The fact is that the greatest changes have taken palce in the high latitudes. I think 2009-2010 was a prime example of this. The uS was way below average temperature wise that year, as was much of western Europe and yet the placess that have traditionally been cold, such as labrador and northern Canada were torching.

Very mild winters such as those of 1905-1906 and 1952-53 have occurred in the past, but they really stuck out like a sore thumb. Now it seems to be the opposite. For example, 2002-2003 really sticks out over this past decade as having been a very cold winter due to the fact that the winters surrounding weren't that cold. January 2004 was cold, but December 2003 was a torch, for example. Also, 2007-2008 wasactually quite a mild winter in eastern Canada - one which simply a lot of snow.

Essentially, if you're a betting person, you'd bet on a warmer than average winter in this day and age.

Even if a fading El Nino transitions into a weak El Nino next winter, as in 1976, the same set up will likely produce a winter that is not as cold as 1976-77, despite there being similar water signatures for the simple fact that, as Don as stated, there is not as much cold air in the Arctic to work with.

Despite all I've said, I don't agree with the whole "river used to freeze every year" thing. If you had tried to set up a back yard hockey rink in 1973-75 or 1974-75, you would have hada tough time doing so in southern ontario.

As Michsnowfreak mentioned the region as a whole saw much worse times back in the 30s/40s/50s and even early 60s for some. Back then you betted on below normal snowfall and above normal temps.

The problem is people trust their memories too much which are often false.

Pretty much.

This did happen. The AO+ this year has completely destroyed the MYI again.

But The Consistent AO didn't melt out the Canadian Archipelago which now see's a near complete melt out. Ice that was 10+ years old and 50-100 meters thick from years of ridging has melted out completely. The Glaciers in the region mostly around 80-83N and others on Greenland have seen continued acceleration since the 90s in their melting. Some losing 50 percent of their ice mass in the last decade.

Like the Great Lakes the Hudson Bay Ice Mass Balance and freeze and melt dates is changing rapidly. Regardless of natural variance over a long enough period those water bodies have continued to show more ice free time.

And lastly arctic and Northern Canadian Temps, and Siberia have all continued to warm faster and faster.

We just went through a -PDO and solar Min and these areas are losing more ice and getting rapidly warmer.

If it's not Global Warming then it must be?

1. the PDO has not been all the negative for too long and at last check the AMO was still positive unlike back in say the 70s. As anyone knows things don't happen on a flip of a dime. And the AMO does have a say in this matter.

In short.. When the AMO is negative for a few years alongside that -PDO and assuming the solar activity goes as forecasted ( low ) get back to me then and then lets see where we are.

[Harry]

Absolutely. UHI affects low temps much more than high temps, so much of the warming in the mean temps has to do with the lows, not the highs. At Detroit, the station was moved from the city to the suburbs in the 1960s, which briefly was a great radiating place, but UHI has taken over majorly to the point that present-day DTW being in the burbs is probably a worse radiator than Detroit City from 60+ years ago. Station location, UHI, etc...even when ALL factors are put aside, when looking at the mean yearly temp broken down by decade since at Detroit 1880, the warmest decade and coldest decade span a grand total of 2.0F degrees. I suspect if you would use temps at a constant location since 1880 that is no more builtup now than then, the difference would definitely be less. Bottom line, from a strictly sensible weather standpoint, the general climate of Detroit, though it has gone through cycles with minor tweaks as mentioned above (harsher but shorter winters in the 2000s, abnormally hot summers and warm winters in the 1930s, etc)....is generally no different now than it was when records began some 140 years ago.

Why i like to use Lansing which unlike Detroit has not seen much change with where the station is and with growth. Why i always laugh at those who bring up a city to use as a example for GW. Still there HAS been warming. Question is IS it natural ( thus cycles ) or other? For me the true test comes when the AMO goes into it's Negative phase ( for a few years ) with the -PDO/low solar activity.