Predicting Solar Activity

[meteorologist]

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/13dec_globaleruption/

[DaculaWeather]

I've got a page that displays what's being monitored http://www.daculaweather.com/space.php If the images don't appear they're generally being updated.

[aslkahuna]

I spent a number of years doing Spaceweather prediction work though currently my Spaceweather page on my website is low keyed. Long timers here probably remember my aurora alerts and Flare reports I posted on WWBB and here during Cycle 23. I've posted a couple of flare reports here and two aurora alerts for the northern tier states (both verified) during this recent cycle but there hasn't been much for me to comment on lately.

Steve

[TXWXCHX]

There's been some intriguing activity the last few months regarding long duration C-Class flares, massive filaments and just this Sunday what appeared to be an anomalous negative Bz reading (magnetic). We've also experienced some activity today: see

http://www.solarcycle24.com/xray.htm

I'm especially interested in the size of these recent filaments; they seem to have excited the interest of other researchers as well...

http://www.wired.com...e-sun-filament/

Thanks to Ed Mahmoud for posting the "global eruption" tip to the main forecasting forum!

I'm curious to see what these long duration physical features of the sun portend; we are still far behind the predictions for sunspots but this certainly livens things up a bit!

[aslkahuna]

Today's event was a C2.3/0F LDE in region 1133 and was also associated with a disparition brusque (Disappearing Filament ) so it is likely that one was sympathetic with the other most likely the flare with the DSF since the filament lifted off before the flare occurred. A CME followed the the evnt but given the location of the flaring region region (W55) itis probable that the CME is not Earth directed. The recent negative Bz was probably associated with a coronal hole that has been affecting the near Earth space environment. The field briefly went to active levels then but no storm levels were observed. Should be noted that we haven't seen a Flare greater than M8.3 this cycle and that one occurred in February. We have been seeing a lot of CMEs but they seem to be associated with DSFs rather than significant flares. What needs to be learned is how the structure of the magnetic fields locked into the CMEs from DSFs differ (if they do) from the ones from flares this is important from the standpoint of forecasting effects. Incidentally, it is fascinating to watch a DSF liftoff through a telescope.

Steve