Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 If the month ended now we'd be 16th warmest on record....pretty nuts....It looks like we'll make a run at the top 5 for sure....The 2 at the top are crazy..They were likely around +12's versus the norms of the time.....both had massive heat waves with highs in the upper 80s....and both had top 10 max-mins....without 2-4 days in the mid to upper 80s and a couple mins in the low to mid 60s, it will be hard.... 1) 56.2 (1945) 2) 55.5 (1921) 3) 53.0 (1946) 4) 52.7 (1977) 5) 51.7 (2000) 16) 49.6 (2012) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 Torch It would probably take a pretty cold final week of march not to crack the top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Good. Bring it on. Hope it hits 80 soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 Good. Bring it on. Hope it hits 80 soon. It's kind of nice out today. 80 in March kind of sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 It's kind of nice out today. 80 in March kind of sucks. Have to say, I'm starting to get concerned that we are going to fall short of our 20-40" of snow in this span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 Have to say, I'm starting to get concerned that we are going to fall short of our 20-40" of snow in this span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 If the month ended now we'd be 16th warmest on record....pretty nuts....It looks like we'll make a run at the top 5 for sure....The 2 at the top are crazy..They were likely around +12's versus the norms of the time.....both had massive heat waves with highs in the upper 80s....and both had top 10 max-mins....without 2-4 days in the mid to upper 80s and a couple mins in the low to mid 60s, it will be hard.... 1) 56.2 (1945) 2) 55.5 (1921) 3) 53.0 (1946) 4) 52.7 (1977) 5) 51.7 (2000) 16) 49.6 (2012) 1946 and 1977 were the only years with a trace of snow in May up here...Spring 1945 started warm but ended cool...June's coolest temperature was set in 1945 in NYC...there was some snow in April 1921 and 2000 up here...maybe the rubber band will break and there will be a cool endeng to a very long warm stretch......It seems like this rubber band is steal belted...No breaks in sight...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 If the month ended now we'd be 16th warmest on record....pretty nuts....It looks like we'll make a run at the top 5 for sure....The 2 at the top are crazy..They were likely around +12's versus the norms of the time.....both had massive heat waves with highs in the upper 80s....and both had top 10 max-mins....without 2-4 days in the mid to upper 80s and a couple mins in the low to mid 60s, it will be hard.... 1) 56.2 (1945) +9.4 2) 55.5 (1921) +8.7 3) 53.0 (1946) +6.2 4) 52.7 (1977) +5.9 5) 51.7 (2000) +4.9 16) 49.6 (2012) +6.2 With departures from 81-10 to illustrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 1946 and 1977 were the only years with a trace of snow in May up here...Spring 1945 started warm but ended cool...June's coolest temperature was set in 1945 in NYC...there was some snow in April 1921 and 2000 up here...maybe the rubber band will break and there will be a cool endeng to a very long warm stretch......It seems like this rubber band is steal belted...No breaks in sight...TWT... If the band does'nt break I feel then that proves we have moved into a warmer climate with 2 or 3 degees above the current averages being the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Looks like we are locked in to a top 2 warmest Jan-Mar period. Only need above 54.0 for warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Looks like we are locked in to a top 2 warmest Jan-Mar period. Only need above 54.0 for warmest. We are also locked in to the warmest astronomical winter (approximately December 21st to March 20th each season) and the warmest composite meteorological/astronomical winter (December 1st to March 20th each season). Each of these two measures of winter currently (through March 13th) show average temperatures of 44.4 degrees in DC, versus the previous astronomical winter record of 43.7 in 1989-90 and the previous composite winter record of 44.0 in 2001-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 If the month ended now we'd be 16th warmest on record....pretty nuts....It looks like we'll make a run at the top 5 for sure....The 2 at the top are crazy..They were likely around +12's versus the norms of the time.....both had massive heat waves with highs in the upper 80s....and both had top 10 max-mins....without 2-4 days in the mid to upper 80s and a couple mins in the low to mid 60s, it will be hard.... 1) 56.2 (1945) 2) 55.5 (1921) 3) 53.0 (1946) 4) 52.7 (1977) 5) 51.7 (2000) 16) 49.6 (2012) Through yesterday, tied for 5th all time if March ended today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Will be interesting to see if we can get through the weekend with the streak intact. Y-day was first March back-to-back 80s since 1998. That was a 3 day stretch which could have been 5 without a 70s in between another 80 before it started. If we get to 6 and stop then it's a top 5 70+ streak in Mar. GFS MEX has 71 for Sunday. If we get that then we could blow away the old streak of 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 1) 56.2 (1945) Interesting to note that, through March 15, March 1945 averaged only 47.0 degrees, versus 53.8 this year. However, March 16-31, 1945 then torched to an average 64.9 degrees. To tie the all-time March record of 56.2, we would need March 16-31, 2012 to average 58.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Interesting to note that, through March 15, March 1945 averaged only 47.0 degrees, versus 53.8 this year. However, March 16-31, 1945 then torched to an average 64.9 degrees. To tie the all-time March record of 56.2, we would need March 16-31, 2012 to average 58.5. If you have it on hand, do you know what departure 58.5 would be for the last half of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 If you have it on hand, do you know what departure 58.5 would be for the last half of March? My in-house stuff has DCA at 49.19 for the average temp March 16-31 (using the new 30-year), so it would be a departure of approx. +9.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 My in-house stuff has DCA at 49.19 for the average temp March 16-31 (using the new 30-year), so it would be a departure of approx. +9.3. I calculate a barely different 49.13, for a departure of + 9.4. To put this in perspective, the March 1-15 departure this year was +9.7, so we would essentially have to continue at the same pace above normal for the rest of the month to tie the March 1945 record. March 16-31,1945, on the other hand, averaged +15.7 relative to the 1981-2010 normal. Further, 1931-1960 March temperatures averaged only 44.8, vs March temperatures of 46.9 during 1981-2010. So, if you consider that the March 16-31 normal was likely about 2.1 degrees less in 1945 than it is now, that would increase the March 16-31, 1945 departure relative to the normal of that era to +17.8. Pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 damn marine air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 damn marine air Worst case scenario is +9.5 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 damn marine air It's still around, even on a offshore NW wind.....sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 IAD, DCA and BWI all have logged five to six daily minimums at or above 50 degrees. The 850 mb progs suggest two days at or below normal between now and March 24 and with all of the remainder of the interval above average. By March 24, the month should be consistently around +10.5 or warmer. The entire month should approach +10.8 or warmer unless the final week breaks the trend. In 1885, March averaged 34.5 and no D.C. March has had an average temperature in the 30s since 1941. At this rate, summer will run May to or through October in a few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 IAD, DCA and BWI all have logged five to six daily minimums at or above 50 degrees. The 850 mb progs suggest two days at or below normal between now and March 24 and with all of the remainder of the interval above average. By March 24, the month should be consistently around +10.5 or warmer. The entire month should approach +10.8 or warmer unless the final week breaks the trend. In 1885, March averaged 34.5 and no D.C. March has had an average temperature in the 30s since 1941. At this rate, summer will run May to or through October in a few decades. 1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 IAD, DCA and BWI all have logged five to six daily minimums at or above 50 degrees. The 850 mb progs suggest two days at or below normal between now and March 24 and with all of the remainder of the interval above average. By March 24, the month should be consistently around +10.5 or warmer. The entire month should approach +10.8 or warmer unless the final week breaks the trend. In 1885, March averaged 34.5 and no D.C. March has had an average temperature in the 30s since 1941. At this rate, summer will run May to or through October in a few decades. 1960 Not all that surprising how rare a 30s March is since we need around a -6.9 monthly anomaly to get into the 30s using the new normals (or about a -6.6 anomaly using the old normals). Perhaps we should look at the number of years exceeding that anomaly in the positive direction (besides this year ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 If the month ended now we'd be 16th warmest on record....pretty nuts....It looks like we'll make a run at the top 5 for sure....The 2 at the top are crazy..They were likely around +12's versus the norms of the time.....both had massive heat waves with highs in the upper 80s....and both had top 10 max-mins....without 2-4 days in the mid to upper 80s and a couple mins in the low to mid 60s, it will be hard.... 1) 56.2 (1945) 2) 55.5 (1921) 3) 53.0 (1946) 4) 52.7 (1977) 5) 51.7 (2000) 16) 49.6 (2012) My very wild guess is the rest of march averages +3 to +5. Which would put us around 54.5 for the month, so solidly in 3rd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 My very wild guess is the rest of march averages +3 to +5. Which would put us around 54.5 for the month, so solidly in 3rd place. +5 to +8 easily... around +10 more likely. I think 1st place is almost a lock at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 My very wild guess is the rest of march averages +3 to +5. Which would put us around 54.5 for the month, so solidly in 3rd place. The last 13 days of the month average about 59/40. The last week would have to be below normal to bring us down to +3 to +5. We are +10 to +18 today through Saturday. And the D10 Euro ensemble looks like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Hmmm. Maybe I am too low. I was thinking +4 for the next 13 days. Partly because anomalies smooth more toward normal in the 8-15 day range and I am "concerned" we get backdoored and marined for a couple/few days next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 +5 to +8 easily... around +10 more likely. I think 1st place is almost a lock at this point. We have to average 58.4 the rest of the way to get the record. I guess that is doable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Forcasting persistance looks good for April. Here's the April composite for the top 5 warmest Marches: Just for giggles, here's the following JJA. Cool summer coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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