hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I'm not sold on much severe weather tonight in SEMI either. Maybe South of I-96 and west of Ann Arbor, where there's a bit more instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 OT: Pretty cool how we went from winter right into T-storm season fun stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Things look to be setting up linear-wise. Outflow boundary and storms congealing on latest radar trends. The cell south of kalamazoo is moving east, by the way. That southern flank looks good. The cells south of Cassopolis just blew up and look decent. The enviorment isnt the best (still favorable though) but it is still spooky to see splitting supercell in lower MI in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I'm not sold on much severe weather tonight in SEMI either. Maybe South of I-96 and west of Ann Arbor, where there's a bit more instability. Dynamic forcing will keep the MCS going a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Dynamic forcing will keep the MCS going a bit longer. It'll keep it going, but at sub-severe limits (as it is right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Dynamic forcing will keep the MCS going a bit longer. SPC mentioned 00z - 1z as good timestamp for southeastern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T Denninger Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 New guy here, but WW 74 just issued for SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 74 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 735 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 TORNADO WATCH 74 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MIC049-063-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-157-161-163-130700- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0074.120312T2335Z-120313T0700Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENESEE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND SANILAC ST. CLAIR TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 74 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 735 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM UNTIL 300 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TOLEDO OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 New guy here, but WW 74 just issued for SEMI. Welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 New guy here, but WW 74 just issued for SEMI. Welcome! Nice to see another poster from NE Oakland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 OT: Pretty cool how we went from winter right into T-storm season fun stuff Loving it, if this weather pattern could hold up for a few months it would be an insane spring / early summer severe season with lots of hot temps and dewpoints even up here in michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Its going to be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 It'll keep it going, but at sub-severe limits (as it is right now) There's a reason why the Tornado Watch was extended. Dynamic lifting, and low level shear will keep the threat going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Its going to be a long night. Not a huge severe weather fan and the fact its almost dark, that makes me even less of a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Hm is it just me or these cells are intensifying as they head east? LOl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I was supposed to be in Port Huron tonight, d'oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 There's a reason why the Tornado Watch was extended. Dynamic lifting, and low level shear will keep the threat going. Again I agree that theres enough dynamics to keep it going, its just that I look at it right now, with the general lack of severe warning/reports, they'd have to intensify as they move onward and I don't see why that would happen. Hey, just my 2 cents though. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 There's a reason why the Tornado Watch was extended. Dynamic lifting, and low level shear will keep the threat going. There might be a 1-2 hour window where its going to be real dicey around here. These cells keep spliting and training ENE one right after the other. The 1k shear is concerning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Hm is it just me or these cells are intensifying as they head east? LOl My favorite model says the storms should still be decent into SEMI tonight... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ this ncep spc wrf run model has been crazy accurate for a while now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Quite a nasty-looking supercell with a lot of hail as well. The small towns of Sanford and Larkin are in its path...just north of Midland. May have had a brief tornado with this storm. Half-dollar size hail fell, then in the same area, a polebarn was destroyed and a house lost most of its roof. Powerlines were downed on a few adjacent roads. In between Coleman and Sanford is the location. Have to wait for a survey to be sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 More warnings going up on the southern flank. WUUS53 KIWX 122357 SVRIWX MIC149-130045- /O.NEW.KIWX.SV.W.0002.120312T2357Z-120313T0045Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 757 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 845 PM EDT * AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONSTANTINE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF SIMONTON LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE... THREE RIVERS... CENTREVILLE... STURGIS... COLON... OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE KLINGER LAKE...WASEPI...NOTTAWA...FAWN RIVER...FINDLEY...BURR OAK AND FAIRFAX. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST OHIO. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA. && LAT...LON 4203 8530 4176 8530 4177 8579 4179 8576 4186 8576 4194 8568 TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 250DEG 47KT 4181 8574 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Definitely looks like the cells are strengthening, and also congealing. I like our chances in SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 May have had a brief tornado with this storm. Half-dollar size hail fell, then in the same area, a polebarn was destroyed and a house lost most of its roof. Powerlines were downed on a few adjacent roads. In between Coleman and Sanford is the location. Have to wait for a survey to be sure though. Interesting both areas are about 5 - 10 miles from me... I'll be watching tomorrows news closely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Interesting both areas are about 5 - 10 miles from me... I'll be watching tomorrows news closely... Lol quoting myself but the ppl I live with just said they heard the same damage reports just south of here on tv.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 On a related note... sanford (a few miles south of me) had a tornado on their man made lake last year which you can see in this video.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Idk if there was a little more instability in place I would have higher hopes for us in SEMI. Either way though I'll be happy just hearing some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Saw what looked to be a wall cloud and a decent shelf cloud earlier with that Mt.Pleasant cell, I see trained spotters have verified that. From a friend on facebook for that storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Idk if there was a little more instability in place I would have higher hopes for us in SEMI. Either way though I'll be happy just hearing some thunder. The 925mb winds will ramp up quickly ahead of the convergence, and advect enough instability for some storms to strengthen up. It's going to be very close, but I would say that the closer you are to the Ohio border, the better the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Saw what looked to be a wall cloud earlier with that Mt.Pleasant cell, I see trained spotters have verified that. thats great and glad to hear you are back in central mi kab lol.... this storm cell had me freaked out a bit to your ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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