brettman320 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 TORNADO WARNING MIC011-051-129-143-122215- /O.NEW.KAPX.TO.W.0001.120312T2129Z-120312T2215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 529 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN ARENAC COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... NORTHERN GLADWIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... SOUTHWESTERN OGEMAW COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... SOUTHEASTERN ROSCOMMON COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 529 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLADWIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ALGER...WOODEN SHOE VILLAGE...HOCKADAY AND BOWMANVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 4389 8462 4412 8462 4432 8431 4406 8406 4387 8460 TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 234DEG 33KT 4404 8451 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 We would have much better chance with this type of set up in late May thru July. More sun (daylight hours) for instability into the evening. You have an extra hour of daylight since we just set the clocks forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Careful with using that. It only gives you the probability of a sig tornado based on a supercell actually forming, and ti always seems to run high and make things look worse then they are. The description of the product says "The conditional probabilities tend to overestimate the rate of occurrence of signficant tornadoes,especially where the initial convective mode is nondiscrete, or where the mode evolves from discrete to linear." Discrete to linear might be what we are looking at right now. It also goes on to say that it should used in compliment with the STP parameters, which are only at "1" in W MI. I'm not saying the threat isn't there, just that that product in particular makes things looks worse then they are and it should be used with caution. I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Threat definitely seems to be shifting out of IL. I think the best threat going forward is far north central/northeast IN, southern (maybe into central) MI and northwest OH. SE MI is more tricky given less favorable timing and less instability. Have to watch to see how that trends. Agreed. I'd complain about things always dying when they move into SEMI, but its early march and any complaining should result in an instant perma-ban Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 TORNADO WARNING Spun up pretty fast along M-18. Pretty decent rotation with it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 WFUS53 KGRR 122138TORGRR MIC159-122215- /O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0001.120312T2138Z-120312T2215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 538 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF PAW PAW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS... PAW PAW... KENDALL... LAWTON... GOBLES... BLOOMINGDALE... GLENDALE... MATTAWAN... MENTHA... ARMSTRONG CORNERS... ALMENA... TEAPOT DOME... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. && LAT...LON 4216 8597 4225 8608 4242 8596 4242 8580 4242 8577 4216 8577 TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 230DEG 46KT 4225 8594 $$ TJT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 heh that cell with the tornado warning now was the one I said had a hook and looked interesting on velocity 30mins ago or so, wouldn't be surprised if there was a small ef0-ef1 spinup before the warning it now has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Nasty Cell North of Paw Paw heading toward NW KZoo cty. Plainwell look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Some DP for the K-zoo cell: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 You have an extra hour of daylight since we just set the clocks forward. You know I was expecting that response as I was typing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Things are getting interesting. WFUS53 KGRR 122144TORGRR MIC077-122245- /O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0002.120312T2144Z-120312T2245Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 544 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT * AT 542 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAW PAW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... COOPER AROUND 610 PM EDT... NORTHWOOD AROUND 610 PM EDT... HIGHLAND PARK AROUND 625 PM EDT... GULL LAKE AROUND 625 PM EDT... YORKVILLE AROUND 625 PM EDT... THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS... KALAMAZOO... RICHLAND... OSHTEMO... ALAMO... HIGHLAND PARK... GULL LAKE... YORKVILLE... COOPER... NORTHWOOD... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS AT 1 800 647 3836. && LAT...LON 4242 8576 4242 8530 4217 8576 TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 246DEG 32KT 4225 8587 $$ TJT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Some DP for the K-zoo cell: That is a pretty popular spot for severe weather. A tornado went through (just south of Gobles) a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Pretty decent Sig Tor 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Pretty nice looking lowering on this stream here http://content.wdtin...C=20226&O=10242 EDIT: He's turned away now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Might be able to produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 559 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 700 PM EDT * AT 555 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KALAMAZOO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. MILO IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Is it just me or are the dewpoints about 2-3 degrees lower than progged (by NAM)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Good looking cell: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I worked in Plainwell last summer. Very busy little town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Some live coverage from Grand Rapids: WOOD: http://www.woodtv.com/subindex/video/live_video WZZM: http://www.wzzm13.com/video/livestream/live.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 The cell near portage bears some watching. Looks to be some rotation with that one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 This stuff sure is low topped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 This stuff sure is low topped! Yeah, gotta love mini supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Local news was just on, showed a couple pics of trees on houses, nothing too crazy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Tor warning for Mount Pleasant also now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I wonder if this was actually a tornado or wall cloud outside of Kalamazoo. 5:51PM Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Tor warning for Mount Pleasant also now. oh my been watching that cell, I think it will miss me 5 miles or so to my north but now im just a bit more interested Edit: hmmm looking at local tv's radar and storm path this potential tornado is gonna be a close call!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Mt. Pleasant circulation means business now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 looks like the tornado warned cell near me might be taking the usual severe storm se jog, if it does im going to be close to the path omg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Mt. Pleasant circulation means business now. Yeah and turning slightly to the right too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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