hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 New Outlook is similar in shape, got rid of the 30% wind probs ..MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH TONIGHT CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN 19Z TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM SWRN LOWER MI SWWD. INITIAL LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT AND SMALL MCS OVER W-CNTRL LOWER MI SHOULD PROPAGATE E/ENEWD ON THE FRINGE OF THE GREATER HEATING. MORNING CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION BACKBUILDING SWWD AS WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. IT APPEARS PROBABLE A SW/NE-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS WOULD FORM BY EARLY EVENING FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS TYPE OF ORIENTATION AND MAY MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STILL...DID EXPAND SLIGHT RISK SLIGHTLY SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED /BUT WEAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettenBailey Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 First Warnings of the Day out for portions of Michigan- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 400 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MECOSTA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... MONTCALM COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... EAST CENTRAL NEWAYGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF MORLEY..AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEWAYGO... HOWARD CITY... GREENVILLE... BIG RAPIDS... EDMORE... STANTON... BARRYTON... MORLEY... MECOSTA... NEWYAGO STATE PARK... CROTON... FERRIS TWP... LANGSTON... CEDAR LAKE... VICKERYVILLE... BUTTERNUT... FENWICK... TURK LAKE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. && LAT...LON 4347 8509 4346 8485 4312 8484 4312 8531 4329 8531 4329 8556 4338 8557 4340 8588 4360 8560 4360 8556 4382 8556 4381 8509 TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 270DEG 27KT 4351 8556 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 RR showing an impressive pocket of >50 knts winds at 925mb. Impressive amount of low level shear in terms of wind speed. I still would like to see the winds veered a bit more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 several fine lines oriented SW-NE across the southern half of the LOT CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Svr warnings ne of Grand Rapids now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Im thinking a watch would be needed right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 New Outlook is similar in shape, got rid of the 30% wind probs ..MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH TONIGHT Right along the I-94 and I-80 corridors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 several fine lines oriented SW-NE across the southern half of the LOT CWA thinking the convergence was too weak/late for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Im thinking a watch would be needed right now.. pre apx latest afd, no watch expected to be issued due to lack of sfc instability, so much for apx discussion, tor watch for west of i75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 TVS in Mecosta Cnty, MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 There is a tornado watch that should be coming out any moment for most of GRR's CWA and Western parts of DTX's CWA. until 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 There is a tornado watch that should be coming out any moment for most of GRR's CWA and Western parts of DTX's CWA. until 11pm They should include Wayne, and Monroe in the watch. Should be favorable there as well. Between 23z and 02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I guess they decided to see how things play out before issuing a watch in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I would watch those cells just West of Benton Harbor, they would be moving into probably the best environment. 0-3km CAPE around 125J/kg good surface vorticity too. Also in a region of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I would watch those cells just West of Benton Harbor, they would be moving into probably the best environment. 0-3km CAPE around 125J/kg good surface vorticity too. Also in a region of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Am thinking the same thing. Check out SigTor probabilities. Anyone that lives in that area needs to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I'm excited to see my first tornado watch of the year, should be fun... Edit: the storm just to my nw (thats gonna miss me) looks like its developing a hook and looks interesting on velocity too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I'm excited to see my first tornado watch of the year, should be fun... Edit: the storm just to my nw (thats gonna miss me) looks like its developing a hook and looks interesting on velocity too. Activity should begin to subside there in the next few hours, and activity should begin to ramp up in SW Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 no fancy radar here but looks like it may have weak rotation. I know we have a few posters out that way. I was driving north out of South Elgin at that time, watching that storm. It had some mid-level rotation, a nice rain free base, and tried to put together a small wall cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Activity should begin to subside there in the next few hours, and activity should begin to ramp up in SW Michigan. I'm going with the spc ncep wrf run since it's been on fire lately, it shows all those storms on lake michigan shoreline strengthening over the next few hours and hopefully giving me at least a tstorm, dont care for severe or not just hoping for some thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Cells forming to the west/nw of me in LaPorte and Berrien counties are steadily intensifying as they move into better parameters. 67/55 here...wind gusts to 28 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Ah yes. Now this setup seems more reasonable. SW MI with severe storms. This area to get the remnants. Well hopefully I can still get a decent t-storm out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Ah yes. Now this setup seems more reasonable. SW MI with severe storms. This area to get the remnants. Well hopefully I can still get a decent t-storm out of it. It wouldn't be normal unless it was that exact scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 That Benton harbor cell is looking interesting. It looks like there's a little rotation with it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I have to say that i'm glad dews and instability are not greater than what they are for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I have to say that i'm glad dews and instability are not greater than what they are for this event. Agreed. Would have to say unless we get enough instability, these storms will likely stay low topped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Southern Storms probably have the best chance to produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Threat definitely seems to be shifting out of IL. I think the best threat going forward is far north central/northeast IN, southern (maybe into central) MI and northwest OH. SE MI is more tricky given less favorable timing and less instability. Have to watch to see how that trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 It wouldn't be normal unless it was that exact scenario. We would have much better chance with this type of set up in late May thru July. More sun (daylight hours) for instability into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 WUUS53 KGRR 122132SVRGRR MIC159-122215- /O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0004.120312T2132Z-120312T2215Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 532 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 529 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAW PAW..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SOUTH HAVEN... DECATUR... BANGOR... PAW PAW... VAN BUREN STATE PARK... PORTER TWP... MCDONALD... PALISADES PARK... LACOTA... GRAND JUNCTION... BREEDSVILLE... KENDALL... LAWRENCE... LAWTON... GOBLES... KEELER... BLOOMINGDALE... GLENDALE... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. LAT...LON 4207 8622 4224 8622 4224 8636 4235 8630 4241 8628 4242 8627 4242 8577 4207 8576 TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 237DEG 51KT 4227 8592 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN $$ TJT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Am thinking the same thing. Check out SigTor probabilities. Anyone that lives in that area needs to pay attention. Careful with using that. It only gives you the probability of a sig tornado based on a supercell actually forming, and ti always seems to run high and make things look worse then they are. The description of the product says "The conditional probabilities tend to overestimate the rate of occurrence of signficant tornadoes,especially where the initial convective mode is nondiscrete, or where the mode evolves from discrete to linear." Discrete to linear might be what we are looking at right now. It also goes on to say that it should used in compliment with the STP parameters, which are only at "1" in W MI. I'm not saying the threat isn't there, just that that product in particular makes things looks worse then they are and it should be used with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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