tornadotony Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Lovely, if you continue that forecast, it goes right over my house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 very close to downtown right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Lovely, if you continue that forecast, it goes right over my house... Yeah and it keeps on trucking right across the state... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Lovely, if you continue that forecast, it goes right over my house... And the southern one goes over my house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 DTX not buyin' it MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN WORK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE (AIDED BY WIDESPREAD LIFT FROM JET STREAK RIDING OVER AREA WITHIN SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL STORM)...EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST CWA WEST AND THEN SINK THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE EMBEDDED THUNDER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST INSTABILITY (22Z-04Z). HOWEVER...GIVEN DECIDED LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY BY THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 starting to see some pockets of sun out to the west, sbcape also starting to inch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 DTX not buyin' it MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN WORK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE (AIDED BY WIDESPREAD LIFT FROM JET STREAK RIDING OVER AREA WITHIN SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL STORM)...EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST CWA WEST AND THEN SINK THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE EMBEDDED THUNDER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST INSTABILITY (22Z-04Z). HOWEVER...GIVEN DECIDED LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY BY THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. I think their update that should come out within the next 2 hours will have a different tone. Alas, nap time at least until mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I think their update that should come out within the next 2 hours will have a different tone. I could see that happening. The satellite picture doesn't look all that great for clearing...then again as it was mentioned before we don't want a whole lot of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I'm going to have a great view to the west for this event, low level clouds are really racing NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 DTX not buyin' it MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN WORK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE (AIDED BY WIDESPREAD LIFT FROM JET STREAK RIDING OVER AREA WITHIN SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL STORM)...EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST CWA WEST AND THEN SINK THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE EMBEDDED THUNDER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST INSTABILITY (22Z-04Z). HOWEVER...GIVEN DECIDED LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY BY THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. Keep in mind that was written at 3:40AM. The 13Z updated SPC forecast moved the Slight Risk further south to include all of SE MI. For me I am waiting to see if we are going to get any sun this afternoon. Even then I am not overly excited for much at this point. Hopefully things work out but I am not holding my breath. Severe weather in SEMI in March It happens but it is pretty rare especially IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Sun starting to break out sporadically through cloud cover here IMBY. 56/53 South wind gusting to 22 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Hopefully at the very least I get a nice vantage point for some storms to my south or southwest. Completely overcast here still, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Nice mesoscale update from LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 You don't want too much sun today. That'll mix out the moisture. We want sufficient but limited heating to keep moisture in place if we want severe wx today. Though personally, I don't really want it. I just have a bad feeling that if something happens it's going to be too close to home. I think all that may be needed for today is temps in the mid/upper 60's. Anything higher than that starts to head toward an unmanageable spread at least for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 RUC has lower CAPE BUT it's barely bringing 60 degree temps up to I-80 which current trends do not support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 RUC has lower CAPE BUT it's barely bringing 60 degree temps up to I-80 which current trends do not support. ORD already there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Decided not to chase today. I'll save the off day and use it on a potential multi-day chase next weekend/early next week. I'll stick with what I said a few days back, in that MI probably has the best shot a severe/coverage...Though it's pretty clear the threat will extend down into N. Indiana/N. Ohio too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 There is a wind profiler right south of the target area. I've never looked at the data much coming from them. Does anyone use it for your analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Thunderstorms firing up just west of me. They look to be making a run at Milwaukee. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lot&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Need to keep an eye on the flood threat in Milwaukee, especially as those echoes begin to increase in intensity and they're training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Need to keep an eye on the flood threat in Milwaukee, especially as those echoes begin to increase in intensity and they're training. I think they'll be able to handle their 1/2" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 heavy pea size hail..only lasted 10 seconds heaviest rain i've seen in yrs. sidewalk flooded standing water in grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 SWS from MKX: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1127 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012 WIZ066-070>072-121700- KENOSHA-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-WALWORTH- 1127 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST RACINE COUNTY... AT 1122 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNION GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS...PENNY SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... EAGLE LAKE BY 1135 AM CDT... UNION GROVE BY 1140 AM CDT... FRANKLIN BY 1155 AM CDT... SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. $$ MRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Now we have a severe thunderstorm warning: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WIC079-101-121715- /O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0001.120312T1639Z-120312T1715Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1139 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... RACINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 1215 PM CDT * AT 1135 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN KANSASVILLE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAGLE LAKE...OR NEAR UNION GROVE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... OAK CREEK AROUND 1155 AM CDT. SOUTH MILWAUKEE...CUDAHY...MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND ST. FRANCIS AROUND NOON CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FRANKSVILLE...CALEDONIA AND SAINT FRANCIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Impressive enough atmosphere for a hail-warned warning, I guess. Enjoy Bowme! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 heavy pea size hail..only lasted 10 seconds heaviest rain i've seen in yrs. sidewalk flooded standing water in grass. Overstatement of the year. Clearly you don't remember the sinkhole incident less than two years ago. I understand your point, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Impressive enough atmosphere for a hail-warned warning, I guess. Enjoy Bowme! It was pretty cool.. only lasted about as long as me in the sack though..about 3 intense mins. Second round with some decent looking hail maybe just missed south. sidewalk is still flooded worse than I have ever seen it. wish we could have got in to round two better to see how much higher it and the standing water in the grass could get. 1201 PM HAIL CALEDONIA 42.81N 87.92W 03/12/2012 M1.75 INCH RACINE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.