06Z GFS 12/14/2010

[winter_warlock]

GFS 06Z STILL HAS STORM JUST A TAD EAST THOUGH BUT STILL LOOKS DEEP...

[SnowGoose69]

I'm gonna take a page out of "someguy"'s book...note the movement of the 850 low off NC/VA is more NE than it is ENE.

[needbiggerboat]

The important 6z DGEX is still OTS, and HPC has yet to use the term "stemwinder", so I remain jejune to this possible event.

[Guest someguy]

so far what we know is that from the 0z runs and the 6z GFS thsat right now the 500 Low / short wave over MN/ MB is NOT

fully phasing with the short wave energy in southern stream.

Hence the ENE track.....

Doesnt mean its right but this is something more than JUSTB the s and e bias of the GFS since the CMC and Euro alos show the flatter solution

of course the GFS ensemble are somewhat better

[Atlas]

Dt fully agree, however would you agree that in most La Nina winters storms generally end up farther NW than progged far out. Some of those individual 6z ensembles show an all out blizzard so it is still alarming to me.

[SnowGoose69]

I posted this in the NYC section...look at what happens at 500mb between the Lakes vortex and the TN valley...we want that with this event....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us1219.php

[SteveB]

Dt fully agree, however would you agree that in most La Nina winters storms generally end up farther NW than progged far out. Some of those individual 6z ensembles show an all out blizzard so it is still alarming to me.

I thought La Nina = more sheared out systems and less phasing = flatter solutions? This all seems like it's fitting the ENSO pattern to me attm.

[NaoPos]

While some of the ensembles show a hit, other's dont..

It's a pretty strong signal when the major operational models( besides the outlier UKIE) miss the earlier phase..

WHile still remaining optimistic for this time frame, i disagree with the comments "still plenty of time for this to get better",,, ideally, you want to see the models trend towards the phase under 150hrs, rather than staying par with the ENE /offshore miss,,

i guess having it close at this timeframe couldn't be a bad thing. BUt unless the op run's start showing a hit here and there, i'd be slowly losing confidence in hit for the east coast.

[NaoPos]

I posted this in the NYC section...look at what happens at 500mb between the Lakes vortex and the TN valley...we want that with this event....

http://www.meteo.psu...1995/us1219.php

Difference with that set up is how amp'd the shortwave was.

This shortwave doens't looking anywhere near that magnitude.

[Guest someguy]

Dt fully agree, however would you agree that in most La Nina winters storms generally end up farther NW than progged far out. Some of those individual 6z ensembles show an all out blizzard so it is still alarming to me.

No I would not.

[SnowGoose69]

While some of the ensembles show a hit, other's dont..

It's a pretty strong signal when the major operational models( besides the outlier UKIE) miss the earlier phase..

WHile still remaining optimistic for this time frame, i disagree with the comments "still plenty of time for this to get better",,, ideally, you want to see the models trend towards the phase under 150hrs, rather than staying par with the ENE /offshore miss,,

i guess having it close at this timeframe couldn't be a bad thing. BUt unless the op run's start showing a hit here and there, i'd be slowly losing confidence in hit for the east coast.

A piece of energy will need to rotate around the base of the elongated southern Canada vortex at exactly the right time to phase with the system...its highly possible this can still occur at this range given its such a thread the needle type deal.

[aldie 22]

so far what we know is that from the 0z runs and the 6z GFS thsat right now the 500 Low / short wave over MN/ MB is NOT

fully phasing with the short wave energy in southern stream.

Hence the ENE track.....

Doesnt mean its right but this is something more than JUSTB the s and e bias of the GFS since the CMC and Euro alos show the flatter solution

of course the GFS ensemble are somewhat better

Feels like this potential is slipping away a bit huh Dave?

[Atlas]

Feels like this potential is slipping away a bit huh Dave?

How is this slipping away? Its over 100 hours out and most of the ensembles all show a legit threat, relax buddy.

[aldie 22]

How is this slipping away? Its over 100 hours out and most of the ensembles all show a legit threat, relax buddy.

I have been here long enough to understand potential. No need for me to relax since I am not hyped up. I have a pretty good feel for what is going on and it was an honest question to Dave. Slipping away and gone are two different things....buddy

[SnowGoose69]

How is this slipping away? Its over 100 hours out and most of the ensembles all show a legit threat, relax buddy.

Its going to be a late consensus on this event, I have no doubt about that...it may not be 24 hours out like 12/19 last year but it could be 60-72...we saw last year on 12/19 and 2/6 how that south displaced vortex was a big problem....in the end the 2/6 event was only prevented from coming up the coast because of a spoke of energy rotating around the PV at the wrong time...its no wonder even 12 hours out the GFS could not resolve that and dumped 5-7 inches on NYC.

[Huffwx]

The NAM at 60 is a little stronger with the vort in the SW regions of the country--even without a phase its good for DC south.

[A-L-E-X]

Its going to be a late consensus on this event, I have no doubt about that...it may not be 24 hours out like 12/19 last year but it could be 60-72...we saw last year on 12/19 and 2/6 how that south displaced vortex was a big problem....in the end the 2/6 event was only prevented from coming up the coast because of a spoke of energy rotating around the PV at the wrong time...its no wonder even 12 hours out the GFS could not resolve that and dumped 5-7 inches on NYC.

I know its not the same kind of situation but it seems almost ridiculous for someone to commit to whatever models are spitting out when they couldnt even get last night's 12 hour surprise snowfall right at 0 hours let alone 24 or more lol.  We just have to accept the fact that the uncertainty is too much for us to commit to any solution at this point.  It's not really a surprise-- this is how its always been, unless you have a megastorm like 3/93. 

[Analog96]

Its going to be a late consensus on this event, I have no doubt about that...it may not be 24 hours out like 12/19 last year but it could be 60-72...we saw last year on 12/19 and 2/6 how that south displaced vortex was a big problem....in the end the 2/6 event was only prevented from coming up the coast because of a spoke of energy rotating around the PV at the wrong time...its no wonder even 12 hours out the GFS could not resolve that and dumped 5-7 inches on NYC.

I'm not sure that was the reason the GFS showed 5" for NYC. I think the problem was the GFS' lower resolution could not pick up on that ridiculously tight accumulation gradient. That was a once in a lifetime event, as far as that tight accumulation gradient.

[SnowGoose69]

I'm not sure that was the reason the GFS showed 5" for NYC. I think the problem was the GFS' lower resolution could not pick up on that ridiculously tight accumulation gradient. That was a once in a lifetime event, as far as that tight accumulation gradient.

Ha...well perhaps over THAT particular area but the 1996 blizzard, 2000 Millennium storm and 1989 event all had gradients that sharp, just in different locations...it probably will be the only storm though ever to drop 2 feet on Philly and nothing on NYC...thats a record I'm sure never will be broken.

[A-L-E-X]

Ha...well perhaps over THAT particular area but the 1996 blizzard, 2000 Millennium storm and 1989 event all had gradients that sharp, just in different locations...it probably will be the only storm though ever to drop 2 feet on Philly and nothing on NYC...thats a record I'm sure never will be broken.

Dont forget the Feb 1989 storm which also occurred in a mod la nina and dumped 20 inches of snow on ACY and nothing on Philly!

[am19psu]

Let's keep this thread to discussing the 6z models. IMBY posts are for the regional forums.