March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[Brian5671]

Radar not as impressive as before which is good I don't want rain

Last few events have really fizzled as they've come over the apps...I wonder if we're at the start of a very dry pattern (which seems to have started in earnest in early November)

[Snowlover76]

Last few events have really fizzled as they've come over the apps...I wonder if we're at the start of a very dry pattern (which seems to have started in earnest in early November)

We are overdue for some sort of a drought.

i think that th last one was back in 2002

[nycsnow]

Last few events have really fizzled as they've come over the apps...I wonder if we're at the start of a very dry pattern (which seems to have started in earnest in early November)

I hope not, grass is dry,brush is dry eh

[Snow_Miser]

DGEX says 80s next week.

[Snowlover76]

I think that I will get above 60 degrees tommrow.

[Snowlover76]

I wonder what the earliesst last freeze on record is for NYC?

because i can really see us going without getting to 32 degress untill next winter.

[SnoSki14]

This is all too much too soon. I want a gradual warming trend from March through May before the heat arrives in June, I'll take days of 60s in March because that's very pleasant, I'll even take a day or two of 70F degrees this month, no big deal. But having it be in the 60s and 70s for some two weeks with talks of mid 80s in mid to late March is way too much right now. We'll have plenty of time for hot weather, we don't need it this early.

I'm surprised people didn't mention more of the downside of this extreme warmth were getting. A very early allergy season, early arrival of bugs, and the potential vegetation danger once things change. We could have a record early growing season and if things flip back to even near normal, then were talking millions in damages from early frost and freezes.

[pazzo83]

This is all too much too soon. I want a gradual warming trend from March through May before the heat arrives in June, I'll take days of 60s in March because that's very pleasant, I'll even take a day or two of 70F degrees this month, no big deal. But having it be in the 60s and 70s for some two weeks with talks of mid 80s in mid to late March is way too much right now. We'll have plenty of time for hot weather, we don't need it this early.

I'm surprised people didn't mention more of the downside of this extreme warmth were getting. A very early allergy season, early arrival of bugs, and the potential vegetation danger once things change. We could have a record early growing season and if things flip back to even near normal, then were talking millions in damages from early frost and freezes.

Things haven't flipped back to normal (or below) since LAST March. At this point the chances of NYC seeing another sub-32F day are decreasing substantially. If this torch carries through the end of the month then they drop off even more considerably. The last time the temp in April dipped below 32 in the park was in 2007.

[SnoSki14]

Things haven't flipped back to normal (or below) since LAST March. At this point the chances of NYC seeing another sub-32F day are decreasing substantially. If this torch carries through the end of the month then they drop off even more considerably. The last time the temp in April dipped below 32 in the park was in 2007.

Numerous places outside the city see lows averaging near freezing into April so those places should definitely look out, less toward the city, more just outside the city.

[pazzo83]

Numerous places outside the city see lows averaging near freezing into April so those places should definitely look out, less toward the city, more just outside the city.

Agreed some places are vulnerable. If we stay in this +5 to +10 regime (overall) though it seems unlikely that'd we'd see any widespread hard freeze (< 25F) once we get into April.

[SnoSki14]

Agreed some places are vulnerable. If we stay in this +5 to +10 regime (overall) though it seems unlikely that'd we'd see any widespread hard freeze (< 25F) once we get into April.

After what I've seen since October until now, I'm not counting anything out. I'm not even counting out the chance for snow once the ridge breaks down or even in April.

[CooL]

This is all too much too soon. I want a gradual warming trend from March through May before the heat arrives in June, I'll take days of 60s in March because that's very pleasant, I'll even take a day or two of 70F degrees this month, no big deal. But having it be in the 60s and 70s for some two weeks with talks of mid 80s in mid to late March is way too much right now. We'll have plenty of time for hot weather, we don't need it this early.

I'm surprised people didn't mention more of the downside of this extreme warmth were getting. A very early allergy season, early arrival of bugs, and the potential vegetation danger once things change. We could have a record early growing season and if things flip back to even near normal, then were talking millions in damages from early frost and freezes.

cmon man, cry me a river lol.. 70's and possibly 80's in march is a godsend to 99% of life.

[mattinpa]

cmon man, cry me a river lol.. 70's and possibly 80's in march is a godsend to 99% of life.

March is supposed to be an up and down month, though. Consistent warmth is extraordinary.

[Snowlover76]

After what I've seen since October until now, I'm not counting anything out. I'm not even counting out the chance for snow once the ridge breaks down or even in April.

That is if the ridge does break down, for all we know, it could stay in place untl summer, and we will then have a summer 2010 repeat.

[easternsnowman]

DGEX says 80s next week.

It's such a reliable model from this far out.

[easternsnowman]

Things haven't flipped back to normal (or below) since LAST March. At this point the chances of NYC seeing another sub-32F day are decreasing substantially. If this torch carries through the end of the month then they drop off even more considerably. The last time the temp in April dipped below 32 in the park was in 2007.

The so called normal temps mean nothing anymore, above average seems to be the new normal. The trends since last march have been too long and consistent.

[Allsnow]

Dont know how much rain we got....but it poured pretty good here last night....enough to wake me up

[bluewave]

It looks like Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week for the South Shore beaches on the warm offshore flow.

We could see mid to upper sixties at places like Long Beach.

[bluewave]

Nice signal if you like to see 80's during March for next week.

[winterwarlock]

cmon man, cry me a river lol.. 70's and possibly 80's in march is a godsend to 99% of life.

preach on!

[ag3]

Clearing is racing east through Jersey.

We should all be off to the races and into the 70's shortly.

[Weathergun]

The 12z NAM has the backdoor cold front coming back as a warm front on Friday. 70s just SW of NYC:

[earthlight]

The front is literally sitting right around Newark at 18z Friday on the NAM. There's even a shortwave passing through New England. Wonder if there could be some convection along the boundary throughout the second half of the week.

Once this boundary passes us or weakens and the ridge builds overhead...all bets are off though. I would not be shocked to see 80 F readings next week around this time.

[uncle W]

todays low of 54 is a record high minimum for the date...The record max for today is 85 set in 1990...1990's minimum was 43...

[bluewave]

todays low of 54 is a record high minimum for the date...The record max for today is 85 set in 1990...1990's minimum was 43...

I see that the park is already running +5.7 with the warmest weather still ahead of us.

It will be interesting to see how high we finish the month.

[Stormlover74]

Seems like most places running a few degrees behind yesterday at this time in the mid/upper 60s.

[jm1220]

The 12z NAM has the backdoor cold front coming back as a warm front on Friday. 70s just SW of NYC:

Huge dividing line there. Could be 75/mostly sunny in Philly and 45-50 on Long Island and stratus.

[bluewave]

Huge dividing line there. Could be 75/mostly sunny in Philly and 45-50 on Long Island and stratus.

It's looking like Long Beach could bump up to 65 or higher on Wednesday if the offshore flow is strong enough.

JFK should take out the record high of 62 set back in 1990.

[ag3]

3PM:

EWR: 74

NYC: 71

LGA: 71

TEB: 74

Coastal areas FTL.

JFK: 60

ISP: 56

FOK: 52

[SACRUS]

You can literally see the trees budding more each hour which is coinciding with the amount of sneezing.

Just absolutely gorgeous outside.