March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[NYCSuburbs]

Umm.. Thats normal. The past few yrs have spoiled quite a few who live on or near the coast.

It does happen occasionally with normal winters, but this winter it's been closer to me more frequently than usual; typically the rain/snow line varies with each storm, either way to my north or just to my north when it rains here, but with most of the cases where the rain/snow line was nearby, it was just a short distance to my north, sometimes barely 10 miles, and some runs of the NAM/CMC are showing a similar outcome again. Given this set up as well as very marginal surface temperatures, I find it very hard to believe it snows here, with places such as SE NY and Connecticut more likely to see at least some snow.

[bluewave]

Those are some pretty insane differences. Makes me not want to put too much stock in either solution right now.

Right, it looks like there are saying there will be a weakness near the Maritimes but not the big lingering cutofff that it

was previously showing.

[SnoSki14]

['quote name=bluewave' timestamp='1333058573' post='1474443]

12z ensembles along with Euro moving away from the big cutoff idea in the long range.

There is no continuity so I'll take that with a grain of salt, the Euro has been fairly poor in the long range this season.

So much for the torch early next week, too much of a blocking influence will devoid us on any 70F+ readings next week, unless things change that is.

[snywx]

It does happen occasionally with normal winters, but this winter it's been closer to me more frequently than usual; typically the rain/snow line varies with each storm, either way to my north or just to my north when it rains here, but with most of the cases where the rain/snow line was nearby, it was just a short distance to my north, sometimes barely 10 miles, and some runs of the NAM/CMC are showing a similar outcome again. Given this set up as well as very marginal surface temperatures, I find it very hard to believe it snows here, with places such as SE NY and Connecticut more likely to see at least some snow.

I guess it would depend where exactly in NENJ you live. Im sure places along the Hudson in Bergen cty have a similar climo to southern Westchester. From my yrs living up here I have noticed the R/S loves to setup through the Ramsey/Mahwah area..

[BxEngine]

I guess it would depend where exactly in NENJ you live. Im sure places along the Hudson in Bergen cty have a similar climo to southern Westchester. From my yrs living up here I have noticed the R/S loves to setup through the Ramsey/Mahwah area..

Yup, I remember as a kid many times the Suffern toll barrier on the Thruway was a typical r/s line.

[snywx]

Yup, I remember as a kid many times the Suffern toll barrier on the Thruway was a typical r/s line.

Its pretty neat how that happens to be the rockland/orange border as well. Elevation does start to increase there as well.

[MJO812]

18z gfs says winter comes back.

[bmc10]

I guess it would depend where exactly in NENJ you live. Im sure places along the Hudson in Bergen cty have a similar climo to southern Westchester. From my yrs living up here I have noticed the R/S loves to setup through the Ramsey/Mahwah area..

Yes that is correct traveling on 17 north. And if you are on 208 the r/s line occurs right as you climb the hill from hawthorne to wyckoff.

[Ericjcrash]

18z gfs says winter comes back.

More like 1 trough.

[Snowlover76]

18z gfs says winter comes back.