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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Subfreezing layer 850-900 mb should cause some sleet to mix in as the precip starts even in NYC

while the surface temps should be in the low 40's.

NAM and the high res models have NYC also dropping into the mid and upper 30's as the heavy precip is on top of us.

Definitely wouldn't be surprised if sleet mixes in with the rain.

But we would need to be over the deform and heaviest of the precip.

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bmc10

bmc10

Posted
Posted

I dont have access to soundings but the Euro seems pretty far south and has 850s below zero at 12z Saturday. Im sure its warm at the surface though.

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS048.gif

Just checked, looks similar to GFS. It's overall organization blows, has trouble consolidating the energy. Looks like some sleet, wet snow mixing in for the near suburbs. NW NJ and SNY maybe get a bit more.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

I-84 looks like a possible 3-6" sweet spot at this point, esp. higher elevations. Mount Pocono or some higher peaks might come in at a 6-7" spot.

Would be impressive considering the 2 week of crazy March warmth not too long ago. Unfortunately we'll probably be stuck in the low 40s Saturday with rain, ouch.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Are levels torching up north too?

No. There is a pronounced warm layer above 850mb, but it relatively shallow north of southern Westchester and CT. It would likely support snow/sleet up there... though I lean towards a wet snow vs. rain scenario this time of year. South and west of NYC, the NAM does show a bit of a "torch," whatever that means, but the gradient is very sharp, and you don't have to go very far north and east before the soundings support frozen precip.

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supermeh

supermeh

Posted
Posted

No. There is a pronounced warm layer above 850mb, but it relatively shallow north of southern Westchester and CT. It would likely support snow/sleet up there... though I lean towards a wet snow vs. rain scenario this time of year. South and west of NYC, the NAM does show a bit of a "torch," whatever that means, but the gradient is very sharp, and you don't have to go very far north and east before the soundings support frozen precip.

Thanks.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

12Z RGEM total snow through hour 48.

Seems Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties are a good place to be.

I've lost count of how many times it rained here while snowing only 15-30 miles to my north this winter... this could perhaps be another one of these cases. Unless the 850mb line is noticeably south with the heavier precipitation in the north side of the storm ending up near NYC rather than SNE, I don't see it snowing here (immediate N/W suburbs), and even if that did happen it would be a marginal solution at best IMO.

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted

I've lost count of how many times it rained here while snowing only 15-30 miles to my north this winter... this could perhaps be another one of these cases. Unless the 850mb line is noticeably south with the heavier precipitation in the north side of the storm ending up near NYC rather than SNE, I don't see it snowing here (immediate N/W suburbs), and even if that did happen it would be a marginal solution at best IMO.

Umm.. Thats normal. The past few yrs have spoiled quite a few who live on or near the coast.

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Reale WX

Reale WX

Posted
Posted

I've lost count of how many times it rained here while snowing only 15-30 miles to my north this winter... this could perhaps be another one of these cases. Unless the 850mb line is noticeably south with the heavier precipitation in the north side of the storm ending up near NYC rather than SNE, I don't see it snowing here (immediate N/W suburbs), and even if that did happen it would be a marginal solution at best IMO.

Sorry NE NJ is out of the game, it doesnt matter what the 850s are, the BL will be too warm and surface no lower than 36-39 degrees. The two similar storms in late Feb were a similar set up but slightly colder in the BL and couldnt produce snow.

The other thing to consider is where the omega's / snow growth zone sets up. Right now it looks like a strip from Danbury to Poughkeepsie to Binghamton. The only way to get accumulating snowfall with this is to be making big dendrites... areas further south may snow or mix, but without thoase big flakes and snow < 3/4 mi, nothing will cover (not to mention the qpf is likely overdone in those same areas because of model resolution)

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