March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[Brian5671]

Confluence will shear this thing out....

[TheTrials]

Confluence will shear this thing out....

absolutely. It will be DOA with no moisture source. Another non-event.

we warm right back up after too. Perfect of my monday morning tee time.

[ag3]

GFS is dry and warm.

[TheTrials]

GFS is dry and warm.

shocking. I have never seen the NAM too cold and too wet ..

[ag3]

shocking. I have never seen the NAM too cold and too wet ..

Euro has .50"+ of precip and is well north of the GFS. And north and wetter then the NAM as well.

[Alpha5]

Most of Manhattan didn't get below freezing that night. There was absolutely no damage to any flowers/plants from what I saw all along the East Side. I even ran in the park this morning and nothing was damaged. Park looks like late April.

Most of the non UNI-raped world got down into the 20's.

[Weathergun]

Euro has .50"+ of precip and is well north of the GFS. And north and wetter then the NAM as well.

But the 0z Euro was also much warmer.

[Allsnow]

Was in Brooklyn yesterday...nothing reminds me of late april....early bloom...but nothing leaf out yet

[TheTrials]

But the 0z Euro was also much warmer.

and the euro was too wet all winter showng big time drop off in qpf right before events.

this one is over both in terms of no frozen precip and less than .25 qpf city on north.

[ag3]

But the 0z Euro was also much warmer.

I dont expect anyone to get snow out of this as I previously stated with the weak low and weak high pressure and it being a swfe.

We need the rain and I hope the euro is correct with it's northern depiction.

[snywx]

43* up this way... what happened to my 60's today smh..

[bmc10]

and the euro was too wet all winter showng big time drop off in qpf right before events.

this one is over both in terms of no frozen precip and less than .25 qpf city on north.

I don't recall the euro being too wet all winter long. If my memory serves me correct, I think there were at least a few events where it was modeling far less moisture. I don't know, could be wrong, I just don't remember the Euro having a wet bias this winter. I prefer this time around the euro is right, we need the rain and a decent amount.

[ag3]

12z ggem continues to be well north of the American models.

Looks like .50"-.75" of rain for NYC.

[SnoSki14]

I'm just happy were seeing more normal late March/April weather with more seasonable temps, the occasional 1-2 day warm up and then a cool down right after. I just hope we do get some rain over the next week, it's really starting to get pretty dry and the fire hazard will continue if we don't get moisture soon.

[snywx]

I don't recall the euro being too wet all winter long. If my memory serves me correct, I think there were at least a few events where it was modeling far less moisture. I don't know, could be wrong, I just don't remember the Euro having a wet bias this winter. I prefer this time around the euro is right, we need the rain and a decent amount.

If the EC would of been correct most of this winter I would have above avg snowfall. Instead I'm 50% of normal..

[TheTrials]

12z ggem continues to be well north of the American models.

Looks like .50"-.75" of rain for NYC.

Ggem is a joke.

[ag3]

Ggem is a joke.

UKIE is also well north of the American suite as well.

[snywx]

What a tease the NAM is to us up here.. 6" of snow?

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kmgj.txt

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE072.gif

[Edge Weather]

Ukie has some good precip in here.

[ag3]

Ukie has some good precip in here.

Yes. But at hour 72, the 850 line is already north of NYC and north of NWNJ. Its a pretty warm solution.

But the rain is much needed.

[tmagan]

17Z Observations, MSLP, Streamlines

[SnoSki14]

Are we still going to hit 70F here? Now down to 58F with some rain and thunder, was up to 61F before.

[Brian5671]

Are we still going to hit 70F here? Now down to 58F with some rain and thunder, was up to 61F before.

not happenin'

[SnoSki14]

not happenin'

Maybe with full sunshine it can, temp now down to 56F, the forecast is still 69F for today.

[Brian5671]

Maybe with full sunshine it can, temp now down to 56F, the forecast is still 69F for today.

sun won't be back for another hour--you'll be lucky to crack 60

[ag3]

sun won't be back for another hour--you'll be lucky to crack 60

Models don't have the upper 60's until 6pmish. When the sun comes out, it can warm up very fast.

[forkyfork]

does anyone understand what mixing is?

[Mr Torchey]

sun won't be back for another hour--you'll be lucky to crack 60

sun is out now!! lol

[Brian5671]

sun is out now!! lol

yuppers...temps not moving much though...

[Mr Torchey]

yuppers...temps not moving much though...

it just came out 5 min ago LOL