March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[pazzo83]

the euro is a disaster. losing warm wx on a model is worse than losing a snowstorm on a model

Still looks good for next weekend.

[SquatchinNY]

Is that ECM image good for those of us who want heat?

[NYCSuburbs]

wow

Not surprising given that it's spring when there's more cutoff low/back door cold front influence, but even with this huge ridge for March, it could still keep the biggest torch way to our west for part of the time frame... that's my biggest concern for this time frame, and why I'm staying away from going with any prolonged near historic torch call for NYC at this time.

[Thunderdude]

I will be happy if we mainly see 50's and 60's, Near 80 is impressive for March.

[Ericjcrash]

80 degree St. Paddy's. Too damn hot to b e around all those people.

[NYCSuburbs]

For what it's worth, the NAM/DGEX combo now brings yet another BDCF through on Thursday... not sure if it will happen exactly this way, but it pretty much kills the big warmth that the previous DGEX runs had through Saturday (where the DGEX is up to so far), and it doesn't look like it's in a hurry to bring the warmth in.

I'm not doubting at all that the next 2 weeks will be warmer than average, much warmer at times, but the crazy torch shown on the GFS with 80+ degrees could easily go wrong this far out. If we're 120-144 hours out and there's still a monster ridge in a favorable position for next week, then I'd probably go along with it, but until then, as we've seen with the BDCF for this week and the uncertainty for next weekend, the models could easily add another feature in the set up to limit the warmth, perhaps still including a very warm day or two but otherwise not as warm temperatures.

18z DGEX for Saturday (temps for this time frame are in mid 60s, 6z run had 80 degrees):

[pazzo83]

For what it's worth, the NAM/DGEX combo now brings yet another BDCF through on Thursday... not sure if it will happen exactly this way, but it pretty much kills the big warmth that the previous DGEX runs had through Saturday (where the DGEX is up to so far), and it doesn't look like it's in a hurry to bring the warmth in.

I'm not doubting at all that the next 2 weeks will be warmer than average, much warmer at times, but the crazy torch shown on the GFS with 80+ degrees could easily go wrong this far out. If we're 120-144 hours out and there's still a monster ridge in a favorable position for next week, then I'd probably go along with it, but until then, as we've seen with the BDCF for this week and the uncertainty for next weekend, the models could easily add another feature in the set up to limit the warmth, perhaps still including a very warm day or two but otherwise not as warm temperatures.

18z DGEX for Saturday (temps for this time frame are in mid 60s, 6z run had 80 degrees):

Yet another? We haven't even had one yet. Upton doesn't seem too concerned.

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...

favored a NAM/European model (ecmwf) blend through Wednesday...then the European model (ecmwf) from

Wednesday night on. The GFS ends up being too progressive

overall...especially with it/S breaking down of the ridge over the

eastern U.S. Late next week - this is also a known bias of the GFS.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=New_York

[mattinpa]

the euro is a disaster. losing warm wx on a model is worse than losing a snowstorm on a model

No way - losing a snow event is much worse. Anyway, dId the Euro look that bad for warmth?

[uncle W]

I could see a few days ruined by a sea breeze...South facing shores on long island is the worst place to be in early Spring...I wish I had a dollar for every time a warm morning turned into a windy cold afternoon when I lived in Brooklyn...

[Weathergun]

The 0z Euro now has another cut-off low just off the Mid-Atlantic coast for this weekend and early next week. It would keep us in low-level onshore flow and many of us reaching 80 degrees, until it moves out. Not saying that this solution is necessarily correct. But with such a high amplitude ridge into Hudson Bay, a cut-off low near the East coast is possible.

Meanwhile the 6z 4km NAM temps up to 76F in NYC Metro for tomorrow:

[NYCSuburbs]

The 0z Euro now has another cut-off low just off the Mid-Atlantic coast for this weekend and early next week. It would keep us in low-level onshore flow and many of us reaching 80 degrees, until it moves out. Not saying that this solution is necessarily correct. But with such a high amplitude ridge into Hudson Bay, a cut-off low near the East coast is possible.

With the way this pattern and trends have been going, I would prefer the cutoff solution over the strong ridge and extreme torch one. There's already a cutoff in place to the northeast later in the week which prevents temperatures from getting very warm, and it's looking more likely that the area of rain moving through around Saturday becomes another cutoff low. As you mentioned, with this much amplification a cutoff is possible, and as well as a storm track that's way too far west and less than ideal high pressure/ridge placement, I'd find it a more reasonable possibility that instead of extreme warmth, some sort of a cutoff low sticks around close to the Northeast, keeping temperatures colder around the region. Maybe a 1-2 day warm surge could be possible sometime next week, but the cutoff possibility and the less favorable ridge position is why I'm still not buying any prolonged strong torch call at this time.

[Sundog]

Warmth with overcast skies is pointless. I'd rather have 50 and brilliant sunshine than 70 and clouds covering the sky.

[bluewave]

If the OP Euro verifies near the end of the range it will be 60's and 70's on the warmer days.

The Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles have a shot at above 80 before the pattern begins

to fade. Even during the record warm spring of 2010 we had to contend with backdoor cold fronts.

OP Euro

Euro ensembles

GFS ensembles

April 2010 sequence

backdoor

in and out warm surge

Welcome to spring warm ups in the Northeast.

[Weathergun]

On the 500mb charts, 0z Euro and 6z GFS ensemble means have a cut-off low signal, with a trough hanging back over Bermuda. Also like the op run, the Euro ensembles, have ridge further NW into Hudson Bay. Which would support the cut-off low closer to East coast. While the GEFS has a ridge further east. But if the cut-off low happens, this weekend, it may very well be a case of extreme torch being delayed but not denied. It's not like we have huge -NAO or blocking ridge in the Atlantic:

[jm1220]

DGEX this morning also keeps us backdoored for several days later in the week towards the weekend. Whenever you see heights lower like this off to our north and east and there's indication of even a cutoff to our east, it's a big warning sign. Until that gets out of the way, it might be hard for many of us esp. near the coast to get out of the 50s.

[ag3]

DGEX this morning also keeps us backdoored for several days later in the week towards the weekend. Whenever you see heights lower like this off to our north and east and there's indication of even a cutoff to our east, it's a big warning sign. Until that gets out of the way, it might be hard for many of us esp. near the coast to get out of the 50s.

The dgex keeps NYC and the coast in the 40's and 50's its entire run (days 4-8). An ugly cutoff ruins the weather for all of NJ, NYC and into SNE.

[Sundog]

DGEX this morning also keeps us backdoored for several days later in the week towards the weekend. Whenever you see heights lower like this off to our north and east and there's indication of even a cutoff to our east, it's a big warning sign. Until that gets out of the way, it might be hard for many of us esp. near the coast to get out of the 50s.

The dgex keeps NYC and the coast in the 40's and 50's its entire run (days 4-8). An ugly cutoff ruins the weather for all of NJ, NYC and into SNE.

I doubt we stay that cold. South facing shores and barrier islands always run a good chance of being cooler but I doubt the whole area dips into the 40s for such an extended period of time.

[ag3]

I doubt we stay that cold. South facing shores and barrier islands always run a good chance of being cooler but I doubt the whole area dips into the 40s for such an extended period of time.

I hope so.

[Zir0b]

The dgex keeps NYC and the coast in the 40's and 50's its entire run (days 4-8). An ugly cutoff ruins the weather for all of NJ, NYC and into SNE.

Just like in winter, the DGEX will be wrong

[jm1220]

I doubt we stay that cold. South facing shores and barrier islands always run a good chance of being cooler but I doubt the whole area dips into the 40s for such an extended period of time.

40s is likely overdone but I've seen setups like that before where we even went down to the 30s after being backdoored. The waters are quite warm however, which would limit how far down we could go. I think it would be 50s for most.

[ag3]

Just like in winter, the DGEX will be wrong

Hope so. The 0z euro also got cooler for this weekend. But no where near the absurdness of today's dgex.

[Sundog]

40s is likely overdone but I've seen setups like that before where we even went down to the 30s after being backdoored. The waters are quite warm however, which would limit how far down we could go. I think it would be 50s for most.

If there's a year that won't be as crappy for you in the spring it's this one. Like you mentioned, water temps are higher this year so that should limit at least a little bit the dramatic differences in temps between you and places farther west/inland.

I once went to Atlantic Auto Mall in Islip to pick up a car and it was in the mid 40s. 30 minutes later back home in NE Queens and it was in the 70s.

[ag3]

If there's a year that won't be as crappy for you in the spring it's this one. Like you mentioned, water temps are higher this year so that should limit at least a little bit the dramatic differences in temps between you and places farther west/inland.

I once went to Atlantic Auto Mall in Islip to pick up a car and it was in the mid 40s. 30 minutes later back home in NE Queens and it was in the 70s.

The water is in the 40's. So a southerly wind will affect coastal areas still.

[Zir0b]

Hope so. The 0z euro also got cooler for this weekend. But no where near the absurdness of today's dgex.

At the worst I could see upper 50's in NYC, low to mid 60's just inland in NJ, with the 70+ being confined to SW NJ and the PHL region.

[psv88]

Expecting 78-80 and sun here in Ft. Lauderdale...and speaking of sundresses...wowie...spring break in full swing boys...

[Brian5671]

Funny watching people get caught up in the nuances of all the model runs...could there be a cooldown-sure...but the overall signal for the next 2-3 weeks is a torch and a big one that will likely bust guidance too low on some of the days. (I'm already at 50 degrees at 9:40 DST!) This will likely be one of the warmest Marches on record no matter how you slice it.

[jm1220]

If there's a year that won't be as crappy for you in the spring it's this one. Like you mentioned, water temps are higher this year so that should limit at least a little bit the dramatic differences in temps between you and places farther west/inland.

I once went to Atlantic Auto Mall in Islip to pick up a car and it was in the mid 40s. 30 minutes later back home in NE Queens and it was in the 70s.

Yeah-hopefully that's right. Last week though there was a huge difference between Midtown and home. I went on the train at Penn Station and it was ~68 outside and gorgeous. I got off in Long Beach and it was in the 40s, windy, and nasty.

[pazzo83]

Yeah-hopefully that's right. Last week though there was a huge difference between Midtown and home. I went on the train at Penn Station and it was ~68 outside and gorgeous. I got off in Long Beach and it was in the 40s, windy, and nasty.

That would really piss me off.

[nycsnow]

Beautiful out already and has a real spring smell outside

[Sundog]

The water is in the 40's. So a southerly wind will affect coastal areas still.

Yea but other years they can be in the 30s. It definitely helps some. Not saying it will be 70 at Long Beach in March with a south wind but it won't be as bad as it can be like in other years.