March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[NEG NAO]

Seems ludicrous to me. Although since it happened in late Oct, I guess it could happen now. God help any vegetation we have flowering/leafing out though if it happens.

Very true and consider the poor tomato plants planted already by fools

[ag3]

0z euro ensembles are a little slower then NAM but faster then the operational.

Looks like a cold rain for NYC and the coast and a sloppy mix for our suburbs.

[ag3]

Its hard enough to get snow from a swfe in the middle of winter, let alone April.

Anyone near the coast who expects snow from a weak swfe is fooling themselves.

We need a strong coastal to get snow in April.

If this storm gives someone snow, it will be the higher hills and the mountains to our north.

[MJO812]

0z GFS had the low going just under NYC while the 6z GFS has the low going just under Wildwood.

[Analog96]

Its hard enough to get snow from a swfe in the middle of winter, let alone April.

Anyone near the coast who expects snow from a weak swfe is fooling themselves.

We need a strong coastal to get snow in April.

If this storm gives someone snow, it will be the higher hills and the mountains to our north.

IIRC, April, 2003, was not a huge coastal.

[MJO812]

HPC

[Brian5671]

0z GFS had the low going just under NYC while the 6z GFS has the low going just under Wildwood.

that's a pretty good jump south--12z will be interesting...if it's much further south, we may be on the northern edge of precip

[ag3]

IIRC, April, 2003, was not a huge coastal.

1045 high to our north. Also had a stronger vort and a closed H5 low in OH.

[earthlight]

[Analog96]

1045 high to our north and the low came off the Delmarva, not mid Jersey.

The GFS has the low sliding off of Wildwood. (6z). That's really not far from the Delmarva.

[ag3]

The GFS has the low sliding off of Wildwood. (6z). That's really not far from the Delmarva.

I just saw that and edited. Regardless, that storm had a 1045 high and a stronger vort with a closed H5 low over Ohio.

I would be shocked if this weak swfe gives anyone near the coast snow.

[MJO812]

The GFS has the low sliding off of Wildwood. (6z). That's really not far from the Delmarva.

6z GEFS is further south than the 0z GEFS. It has the low sliding just under NJ.

[earthlight]

Its hard enough to get snow from a swfe in the middle of winter, let alone April.

Not at all arguing for snow here (lol), but the trajectory of this event really isn't a typical SWFE at all. In fact the shortwave moves from the northwest to the southeast before de-amplifying and moving more easterly. There is a southwest component to the winds in the mid levels but the overall trajectory of the system prevents the big time WAA...if you're basing it off the NAM's depiction.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETANE9_6z/etaloop.html

[jm1220]

I just saw that and edited. Regardless, that storm had a 1045 high and a stronger vort with a closed H5 low over Ohio.

I would be shocked if this weak swfe gives anyone near the coast snow.

It wouldn't surprise me if the precip just sort of dies out as the wave deamplifies and encounters dry air/confluence. The wave already looks pretty weak, and the precip won't just generate itself.

[MJO812]

Fwiw, the 9z SREF has no precip for NYC north. I know it's far out there for the Sref so take it with a grain of salt.

[paulyd]

Finnaly nice to see snow potential.. Funny thing is to the south and west 72 hours out its torching but northeast snow potential... Now u have to factor sun angle.. Also if it happens at night or midday... Lets go -NAO -AO -AAo -EPO +PNA and 50 50 Low

[TheTrials]

Fwiw, the 9z SREF has no precip for NYC north. I know it's far out there for the Sref so take it with a grain of salt.

dry begets dry. Forget snow, getting measurable precip will be a chore.

[earthlight]

It wouldn't surprise me if the precip just sort of dies out as the wave deamplifies and encounters dry air/confluence. The wave already looks pretty weak, and the precip won't just generate itself.

Yeah...I said this yesterday too. But if the NAM has a clue, the stronger shortwave will be enough to get isentropic lift/precipitation going in a good spot for us. That being said I'm not sold on the fact that, even if the NAM is right, the BL would be cold enough to support snow. I guess we may never know

[jm1220]

Finnaly nice to see snow potential.. Funny thing is to the south and west 72 hours out its torching but northeast snow potential... Now u have to factor sun angle.. Also if it happens at night or midday... Lets go -NAO -AO -AAo -EPO +PNA and 50 50 Low

I give it maybe a ~1-2% chance of happening. I think the more likely scenario is the wave gets crushed and sheared out under confluence and we stay dry. Or it gets suppressed. The only model really harping on this is the usually over done NAM.

[MJO812]

RSM says what precip.

[earthlight]

Finnaly nice to see snow potential.

[TheTrials]

who said we were getting a inch of liquid out of this? No way.

[TheTrials]

seriously.

[Sundog]

dry begets dry. Forget snow, getting measurable precip will be a chore.

Until it rains again. Dry begets dry never made any sense. People make it sound like a positive feedback loop when it really isn't.

[MJO812]

lol

We had some snow potentials this past winter but a lot of them didn't work out.

[TheTrials]

Until it rains again. Dry begets dry never made any sense. People make it sound like a positive feedback loop when it really isn't.

snow begets snow, cold begets cold, rain begets rain, and dry begets dry. All truth.

[NJwinter23]

1045 high to our north. Also had a stronger vort and a closed H5 low in OH.

Your first point is very valid. As for the second point, that closed ull was in the Plains and was very disconnected from the situation that affected us that day. A weak wave actually broke off from this ull and shot eastward. There was a WAA omega bomb shot of hvy snow that produced big time for us (unexpectedly).

[TheTrials]

lol

We had some snow potentials this past winter but a lot of them didn't work out.

in retrospect, we had very few, very very few.

[earthlight]

in retrospect, we had very few, very very few.

Yeah...we just spoke about this the other day on the phone. The amount of days we spent tracking/etc was pretty low this winter.

[pazzo83]

How did ur last freeze workout?

Even though it got down to 30F in the park we didn't really have a freeze here. So, not too bad.