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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

6z gfs has troughiness in the long range.

Post 200 hours -- yes. But in the meantime it's actually warmed a good bit for the early part of next week -- shifting the upper level gradient with the ULL over E Canada to the North and now showing 10 C 850 temps through NYC by Day 6-7.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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I knew lower 20's was a pipe dream in Upton's forecast yesterday.... got down to 29 last night.. I knew there was no way lower 20's was happening. Even Albany only dipped down to 23 last night.. I was thinking 32 in the city, which was what LGA hit, but KNYC got down to 30. When the winds are up, you don't generally get too much temperature variation in the general NYC metro area.

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snywx

snywx

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I knew lower 20's was a pipe dream in Upton's forecast yesterday.... got down to 29 last night.. I knew there was no way lower 20's was happening. Even Albany only dipped down to 23 last night.. I was thinking 32 in the city, which was what LGA hit, but KNYC got down to 30. When the winds are up, you don't generally get too much temperature variation in the general NYC metro area.

Dipped to 23.9 here this morning..

KMGJ-- 26

KSWF-- 25

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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Dipped to 23.9 here this morning..

KMGJ-- 26

KSWF-- 25

It looks like pretty much from Orange county north up to Albany was generally in that 23-26 range. The one thing I've noticed where I live in Rockland is when the winds are up at night, I am generally within 2 degrees of NYC temps... almost never fails. If we went clear and calm, completely different story.

One day I want to a study purely on a 12 hour min forecast for my area and see how it verifies. I'm almost willing to bet that more than 75% of the time, it's a bust at least 5 degrees too low.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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what I'm saying with all of this is that I would like, one day, for Rockland county to be split into 2 zones. Although Rockland county is one of the smallest in NY state, it has a very sharp gradient of weather, especially in the winter. You go from areas like Palisades which is really just a few miles north of the GW bridge to a large area north and west with higher elevations near Bear Mountain and Harriman State Park.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

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Yeah it is interesting, if we had gone calm last night I'm sure the city and immediate area would have only dropped another degree or two, while far N&W would have easily seen teens

It looks like pretty much from Orange county north up to Albany was generally in that 23-26 range. The one thing I've noticed where I live in Rockland is when the winds are up at night, I am generally within 2 degrees of NYC temps... almost never fails. If we went clear and calm, completely different story.

One day I want to a study purely on a 12 hour min forecast for my area and see how it verifies. I'm almost willing to bet that more than 75% of the time, it's a bust at least 5 degrees too low.

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snywx

snywx

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what I'm saying with all of this is that I would like, one day, for Rockland county to be split into 2 zones. Although Rockland county is one of the smallest in NY state, it has a very sharp gradient of weather, especially in the winter. You go from areas like Palisades which is really just a few miles north of the GW bridge to a large area north and west with higher elevations near Bear Mountain and Harriman State Park.

The R/S line is almost always in Rockland.. Areas like Nyack/Orangeburg/Piermont etc.. have a similar climate to the Bronx & Upper Manhattan where areas like Stony Pt/Bear Mt/Sloatsburg resemble more of an inland climate. If I had to guess I would say areas near Bear Mtn with elevation above 700' avg around 45" a yr of snowfall where areas closer to the TZ avg around 25-30"..

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

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Really warm SST's showing up off the coast after all the heat last week. B)

While it looks good if we can get anything in our backyard tropically speaking the mda has temps below normal for the first time in years, that in conjunction with a slight nino enso and its looking like a below normal tropical season.

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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
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The lowest humidity I could find in the area is 10% at JFK. I don't know if I've seen single digits around here but I'm sure it can happen

Got the single digit humidity at EWR!

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-272100-
NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA

CITY		   SKY/WX	TMP DP  RH WIND	   PRES   REMARKS
CENTRAL PARK   SUNNY	 51  -1  11 VRB6	  30.22F
LAGUARDIA APRT MOSUNNY   50  -2  11 N13G24	30.20F
KENNEDY INTL   MOSUNNY   51  -3  10 NW22G28   30.21F
NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY   51  -6   9 NW8G18	30.21F
TETERBORO	  SUNNY	 51  -3  10 NW14	  30.20F
WHITE PLAINS   SUNNY	 49   1  14 NW15G24   30.18S

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