March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[ag3]

Temperatures are now on their way down after morning highs.

[Weathergun]

Upton and Mt. Holly have just issued Red Flag Warnings for all their NY and NJ zones.

[TheTrials]

GFS continues the idea of backing off any type of "winter" weather or pattern. Nothing has changed. Its pretty toasty at the end of the run before truncation.

[Capt. Adam]

You can also see it on TDWR TEWR.

Related to this maybe?

EARLE — Officials are reminding area residents explosives training is planned for the base this week in conjunction with the federal Transportation Security Administration.

The Explosive Ordinance Disposal team at Naval Weapons Station Earle periodically coordinates this and other types of explosive demolition training, said Public Affairs Officer Michael Brady.

“Local residents living near Naval Weapons Station Earle should not be alarmed if they hear detonations,” Brady said.

The detonations are planned for the afternoon hours, but weather conditions could push the activity to the morning on some days.

[green tube]

Does anybody know if something exploded near the Raritan River inlet?

(time sensitive) http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

brush fires are pretty common in the general area.

[jm1220]

Upton and Mt. Holly have just issued Red Flag Warnings for all their NY and NJ zones.

If only we could've had that shade of red a couple of months ago as a Nor'easter was getting ready to smash up the coast...

[Stormlover74]

I would think that plume is too large for the smoke that would be released from these detonations. But I have no idea. Also with the wind/fire potential I would think they might hold off. Not only that but the plume is originating up in Middlesex county near Carteret/Perth Amboy, Earle is quite a bit south of there.

Related to this maybe?

EARLE — Officials are reminding area residents explosives training is planned for the base this week in conjunction with the federal Transportation Security Administration.

The Explosive Ordinance Disposal team at Naval Weapons Station Earle periodically coordinates this and other types of explosive demolition training, said Public Affairs Officer Michael Brady.

“Local residents living near Naval Weapons Station Earle should not be alarmed if they hear detonations,” Brady said.

The detonations are planned for the afternoon hours, but weather conditions could push the activity to the morning on some days.

[Allsnow]

Does anybody know if something exploded near the Raritan River inlet?

(time sensitive) http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

Edison.....big brush fire in raritain center...happens every year...bad day for it...because of high winds and dry conditions

[Allsnow]

I would guess one of the refineries could be on fire? Black smoke not being picked up on visible

Its all weeds and whatever people have illegally dump back there

[MJO812]

47 and very windy

[Brian5671]

50 here-been hanging tough all day--DP has steadily dropped, now down to 26

[Brian5671]

GFS continues the idea of backing off any type of "winter" weather or pattern. Nothing has changed. Its pretty toasty at the end of the run before truncation.

No shock there..no snowcover in Canada means we'll trend warmer as time marches on...sure a cold day or night here and there, but doubt we see a prolonged negative deparature with regard to sensible weather.

[ag3]

No shock there..no snowcover in Canada means we'll trend warmer as time marches on...sure a cold day or night here and there, but doubt we see a prolonged negative deparature with regard to sensible weather.

GFS has normal weather for March/April. With the usual wild swings. Pattern does not support any sustained cold or suatained torches, for the forseeable future.

For the 1st time in months, we have a sustained -nao in place and long term models continue it for the next 2 weeks.

[ag3]

GFS has normal weather for March/April. With the usual wild swings. Pattern does not support any sustained cold or suatained torches, for the forseeable future.

For the 1st time in months, we have a sustained -nao in place and long term models continue it for the next 2 weeks.

Also, there will be snowcover in a lot of Canada and Vermont/Maine after the next 7-10 days.

[nycsnow]

Brush fire in Brooklyn to now

[pazzo83]

Wow, winds are unreal up here right now. Easily gusts over hurricane force. The office is shaking.

[Analog96]

Also, there will be snowcover in a lot of Canada and Vermont/Maine after the next 7-10 days.

Less modification of the air masses?

[tmagan]

17Z Observations

[nycsnow]

Wow, winds are unreal up here right now. Easily gusts over hurricane force. The office is shaking.

It's wild here in Brooklyn and there a brush fire not far from my house prob terrible conditions to fight it

[tornadojay]

had a 32 mph gust on my weather station, which is fairly rare.. i have a hard time measuring anything over 30, so that itself is saying something.

[pazzo83]

had a 32 mph gust on my weather station, which is fairly rare.. i have a hard time measuring anything over 30, so that itself is saying something.

This is about as loud as I've heard it up here. We can actually feel the breeze THROUGH the windows.

[ag3]

LGA is gusting to 40mph.

JFK is sustained at 35mph and gusting to 45mph.

[tornadojay]

This is about as loud as I've heard it up here. We can actually feel the breeze THROUGH the windows.

it's definitely ripping out there... the intrusion of colder air at the upper levels with still relatively warm surface temps is likely creating very steep lapse rates and allowing higher wind gusts to mix down.

[Brian5671]

and no wind advisory! Seems that whenever one is issued, it underperforms.

[pazzo83]

These gusts have to be pushing 100mph at this point.

[nycsnow]

They put a red flag warning for rapid spread of fire due to humidity and WIND, yet no wind advisory

[NorEaster27]

52/13, dews really crashing now.

[jm1220]

This is about as loud as I've heard it up here. We can actually feel the breeze THROUGH the windows.

You're in the upper Chrysler Building, correct? I'm a couple of blocks away and there's not much wind here near the ground (I'm on the 3rd floor). Occasionally a moderate breeze. Mixing must not be making it completely to the ground.

[ag3]

Temps dropping into the 40's now in NYC and LGA.

[pazzo83]

You're in the upper Chrysler Building, correct? I'm a couple of blocks away and there's not much wind here near the ground (I'm on the 3rd floor). Occasionally a moderate breeze. Mixing must not be making it completely to the ground.

Yea 50 floors up, and not much blocking the wind.