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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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Analog96

Analog96

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They don't have them out for NW NJ, only for areas where technically the growing season has already begun. I guess Upton doesn't feel this has occurred anywhere within their zones or that the temps just won't be cold enough to affect those regions.

I guess they don't know what's going on in NJ. The growing season has definitely begun here.

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uncle W

uncle W

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the forecast sounds like a cold January day in Tampa where I'll be April 6th weather permitting...since when is 30 degrees a hard freeze?...this March might be the driest on record for Central Park...0.57" so far... A lousy winter can be either warm or dry...this year was both...

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ag3

ag3

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the forecast sounds like a cold January day in Tampa where I'll be April 6th weather permitting...since when is 30 degrees a hard freeze?...this March might be the driest on record for Central Park...0.57" so far... A lousy winter can be either warm or dry...this year was both...

Record lows are only 20-24 areawide for tomorow. 24 at JFK and LGA.

If the NAM is correct with its 26-27 low forecast, its pretty close to record low territory.

In the end, I expect temps to be 29-33 at LGA and NYC.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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tonight is not a good radtiational cooling night. The gradient is tight all night long. Upton has lower 20's for me tonight.. no way it's gonna happen.. I've seen this time and time and again where my temp is usually not all that far from the city's temp in these types of situations. It would not shock me a bit if my low didn't drop below 30 tonight.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

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tonight is not a good radtiational cooling night. The gradient is tight all night long. Upton has lower 20's for me tonight.. no way it's gonna happen.. I've seen this time and time and again where my temp is usually not all that far from the city's temp in these types of situations. It would not shock me a bit if my low didn't drop below 30 tonight.

i've been thinking the same. i've noticed that we're had fairly unimpressive surface temps this late winter whenever we had a cold outbreak at 850. these airmasses have been well mixed

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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tonight is not a good radtiational cooling night. The gradient is tight all night long. Upton has lower 20's for me tonight.. no way it's gonna happen.. I've seen this time and time and again where my temp is usually not all that far from the city's temp in these types of situations. It would not shock me a bit if my low didn't drop below 30 tonight.

Agreed. For most of the area outside of immediate NYC, strong winds do not bring our coldest nights. Usually I find that the first night of CAA temps are slightly warmer than progged, then when sfc high pressure moves overhead, lows are a bit chillier than progged due to radiational cooling.

850's tonight fall to around -10c at 03z then warm thereafter. I think we'll see a lot of upper 20s/low 30s tonight but the low-mid 20s will be few and far between (in the NYC metro area).

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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i've been thinking the same. i've noticed that we're had fairly unimpressive surface temps this late winter whenever we had a cold outbreak at 850. these airmasses have been well mixed

yep.. and we've benefited several times this month from fairly high mixing depths for this time of year to give us some high temps a few degrees higher than what the would have been normally.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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Agreed. For most of the area outside of immediate NYC, strong winds do not bring our coldest nights. Usually I find that the first night of CAA temps are slightly warmer than progged, then when sfc high pressure moves overhead, lows are a bit chillier than progged due to radiational cooling.

850's tonight fall to around -10c at 03z then warm thereafter. I think we'll see a lot of upper 20s/low 30s tonight but the low-mid 20s will be few and far between (in the NYC metro area).

yea.. if you look at the zones from Upton up through Albany county.. essentially, Upton has near 20 to lower 20's from Rockland north... but Albany and it's zones for the mid-hudson valley also have the same forecasted low temps. I see tonight as more of a gradual temp gradient between us and Albany, so while I can definitely see Albany getting down to near 20, I would have like to seen more mid-upper 20 ranges inbetween.

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